1. Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Context and Scale Oriented Thunderstorm Satellite Predictors Development (COALITION) EUMETSAT Fellowship Host-Institute: MeteoSwiss Luca Nisi Supervisor: I. Giunta Convection Workshop 8-10.10.2009

2. 2 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Flexible entity-oriented model Couplings between convective signatures and environment Strict conservation laws or semi-empirical rules Data Merging Objectives → “Heuristic model, which produces in real-time probabilistic information about time, space, and intensity evolution of severe convection for use by decision makers (warnings).” Possible auxiliary sources: NWP analysis / forecast (INCA 1 ) Radio-soundings Ground stations Climatology (real-time user interaction) Main sources: MSG/SEVIRI MetOp/IASI Weather radar Orography (DHM?) Lightning INCA 1 : Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis

3. 3 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Approach / Model ObjectEnvironment SIGNAL INTERACTION 1.known links Convective Signature ↔ Environment → physical conservation laws (e.g. water vapour) → translate empirical rules into model (scale!), (e.g. first appearance of precipitation signals) TRT 2 : Thunderstorm Radar Tracking, developed at MeteoSwiss e.g.: Radar cell from TRT 2 (vert max reflectivity, confinement rules) e.g. water vapour (as potential V(x,y,T) Object Environment SIGNAL INTERACTION Example:

4. 4 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 3.Backward extrapolation: history → adjust past evolutions according to additional heuristic information (e.g. link between convection phase) perturbations of initial state  ensemble → minimize statistical uncertainty and bias over the ensemble (trajectories) 4.Forward extrapolation: → build probabilistic forecast Approach / Model time Intensity Pre-convective environment Convective Initiation Stage ? ? ? 2.Evolution of object-environment from last consecutive observations → interpolate through newest observations (“minimize observation errors”) → build deterministic evolution Observed COALITION forecast Observation Err.

5. 5 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss time Intensity Pre-convective environment Convective Initiation Stage Mature Convective Stage possible application of COALITION forecast Phases: ?? ? ? ? ? ? Observed InstabilityCI Radar cellLL Convergence Radar echoTot. Prec. Wat. Squall line Syn. forcing

6. 6 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Work on-going technical implementation building data base  case selection / classification (e.g.....) designing / developing algorithm

7. 7 COALITION, a multi-sensor, scale oriented approach for merging Nowcasting signals: Convection Workshop | Landshut 08-10.09.2009 L. Nisi Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss References Hering, A. M., C. Morel, G. Galli, S. Sénesi, P. Ambrosetti, and M. Boscacci, 2004: Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Alpine region using a radar based adaptive thresholding scheme. In: Proceedings of Third European Conference Radar on Hydrology (ERAD), Visby (Sweden), Copernicus, 206-211. König, M. 2009: Convective Initiation: Current Studies on Satellite Retrieved Indicators. Forschungskolloquium MeteoSwiss, 19. May 2009. Krakow Convection Workshop, 2007: Recommendations from the working group, EUMETSAT. Mecikalski, J. R. and K. M. Bedka, 2006: Forecasting convective initiation by monitoring the evolution of moving cumulus in daytime GOES imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev. (IHOP Special Issue, January 2006), 134, 49-68. Mecikalsky, J. R., K.M. Bedka, Paech, S.J., Litten, L.A., 2008: A Statistical Evaluation of GOES Cloud-Top Properties for Nowcasting Convective Initiation. American Met. Soc. (IHOP Special Issue, December 2008), 4899-4914. Rosenfeld D., Woodley W.L, Lerner A., Kelman G., Lindsey D.T., 2008: Satellite detection of severe convective storms by their retrieved vertical profiles of cloud particle effective radius and thermodynamic phase. Journal of Geophysical Res., 113, D04208. Setvák M., Rabin R.M., Doswell C.A., Levizzani V., 2003: Satellite observations of convective storm top features in the 1.6 and 3.7/3.9 μm spectral bands. Atmos.Research, 67- 68C, 589-605. Thank you!