1. J. Morison 1 Co-PIs: K. Aagaard 1, K. Falkner 2, T. Kikuchi 3, M. McPhee 4, R. Moritz 1, J. Overland 5, and M. Steele 1 1) Polar Science Center, APL-UW, Seattle WA morison@apl.washington.edumorison@apl.washington.edu 2) COAS Oregon State University, Corvalis OR 3) IORGC/JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan 4) McPhee Research Co. Naches Washington 5) NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA 98115-0070 AON Workshop Boulder, CO March 28, 2007 North Pole Environmental Observatory and Collaborating Observing Programs

2. NPEO Genesis in the NSF-OPP Long-term Environmental Observatories Program Provide sustained sensitive indications of change over a wide area Provide opportunities to the research community to study the central Arctic Ocean with - Long-term Data - Operational & Science Support for Field Work Funded through 2008* now under the AON of the NSF-OPP Arctic Section

3.  Transpolar Drift of ice shifted axis counterclockwise producing a more cyclonic motion in 1990s Changes in the 1990s Atmospheric Pressure and Ice H  Beaufort High decreased and shifted east in 1990s H L

4. North Pole Region as an Indicator of Change The Difference Between 1993 Pargo Salinity and the Past From Morison, et al.,, 2000,, Arctic, 53, 4. Saltier Atlantic-Derived Water Frontal Shift Salinity Increase Fresher Pacific-Derived Water AlertAlert NPEO

5. Three Core Components Plus Collaborative Projects Thule Mooring Automated Drifting Stations Airborne Hydro Sections Collaborations IABP - T/P&IMB Flux Buoys ABPR-GRACE ITPs Soot Sampling Pollen Sampling Nitrates Bio-optics

6. NPEO Airborne Survey and Drifting Station Salinity & Temperature Anomalies Relative to Climatology Morison, Falkner, Kikuchi, Steele Salinity Temperature 2000-2001 Morison et al., 2006a Anomalies are similar to 1990s. Pacific-Atlantic front over Alpha-Mendeleyev R.

7. Morison, Falkner, Kikuchi, Steele NPEO Salinity & Temperature Anomalies Relative to Climatology Salinity Temperature 2005 Morison et al., 2006a Anomalies are small. Pacific-Atlantic shifted to Pole, Central Arctic Ocean nearly at pre-1990s state.

8. Expanded Airborne NPEO and BGEP Surveys for IPY Thule NPEO area April 2007 & 2008 BGEP area March 2008

9. Mass trend due to a hypothesized density shift from 1993 Pargo state in 2000 to pre-1990 conditions in 2006 SSH trends=GRACE BP- hypothetical “steric” trend: - down in Beaufort & - up in Makarov Collaborating Program: In Situ and remote sensing measurements of bottom pressure consistent with return to pre-1990s conditions [Morison et al., 2007] GRACE and Hypothesized Steric and SSH Pressure Trends GRACE shows decreasing BP in Makarov sector, increases in Beaufort Sea => Reversal of ‘90s change. Consistent with observed trend to anticyclonic ice motion. Morison et al., 2006a

10. Ice Draft at the North Pole Increasing Since 2000 Ice has thickened ~ Pre-70’s NP Average Avg = 3.5 m Avg = 3.7 m Avg = 3.1 m Rothrock NP 1990’s

11. Utilize NPEO Data For Data Analysis: -NPEO endeavors to make data available as soon as possible Generally : - Basic buoy data (including Web cam) will be available in near real time - Data from the automated drifting station and the airborne hydrographic surveys will be available within 6 months of data collection. -Data from moored instruments will be available from the NPEO data base 1 year after instruments are recovered. Data release at http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html is unrestricted but we will ask that we be notified when data is acquired and we hope NPEO will be credited in any publications.http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html We submit to the NSF data archive as soon as data is in its final form.

12. NPEO Data via FTP: This data directory is set up to quickly make available versions of NPEO datasets, sometimes preliminary and sometimes with limited documentation. Final datasets are posted to the the Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Data Coordination Center (ADCC) at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Data sets available for free download: NPEO 2000-2006 Aircraft CTD Profiles NPEO 2000-2005 JAMSTEC J-CAD Buoys NPEO 2000-2005 Chemistry NPEO 2002-2005 Weather Buoys NPEO 2001-2003 Bottom-Anchored Mooring NPEO 2000-2004 Ice Mass Buoys Please complete the registration form below to get to access the FTP archive. This information will be used to keep users updated on the latest changes and additions to NPEO data. If you need assistance, please send an email. Name: Institution Name: Email Address:

13. The End For more updates on the state of the Arctic visit our North Pole Web site: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html

14. Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) => Bottom Pressure Variation GRACE Bottom Pressure at the North Pole - CSR Release 01 - De-striped [Swenson and Wahr, 2006] -Deg-one Coeffs from GLDAS [Rodell et al., 2004] - 400-km Gaussian smoothed [Wahr et al., 1998] -PGR from Peltier’s [2004] ICE-5G removed - Terrestrial water signal from GLDAS removed - BP anomaly due to density change of upper 500 m for annual NPEO stations within 200 km of the Pole ABPRs 1 & 3

15. If the the ocean responds to AO, why did it take till now to return to climatology? dy/dt=(-y + AO(t-  ) )/   = “Transport” Lag  = “Spin-up” Time Morison et al., 2006a Spin down time consistent with spin up time.

16. So what has the ice been doing? We know extent has been decreasing. What about thickness? Alert Ice Thickness Nord Lngyr Thule From Lindsay The ice thickness measured by the ULS atop the NPEO mooring should be highly correlated with basin average ice thickness.

17. Histogram 2001-2002

18. Histogram 2002-2003

19. Histogram 2004-2005

20. Conditions at the North Pole Salinity at the North Pole After 2000 Since 2000 upper ocean salinities have decreased towards climatology. Min in 2005 2006 ~ 2004

21. Conditions at the North Pole Temperature at the North Pole After 2000 Since 2000 Atlantic Water temperatures have decreased towards climatology, Now ~ 1991 state. 2004-06 ~ Oden ‘91

22. Morison, Falkner, Kikuchi, Steele NPEO Salinity & Temperature Anomalies Relative to Climatology Salinity Temperature 2002-2003 Morison et al., 2006a Anomalies are reduced in 2003 but still similar to 1990s.

23. Morison, Falkner, Kikuchi, Steele NPEO Salinity & Temperature Anomalies Relative to Climatology Salinity Temperature 2004 Morison et al., 2006a Anomalies are greatly reduced.