1. WP2 - Task 2.3 : Development of new modeling tools Aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate : implication for solar energy Samuel Somot (CNRM) Pierre Nabat (CNRM) Roma, July 2013 http://www.climrun.eu

2. All case study (Morocco, Barcelona, Cyprus, Croatia): Solar energy: Variable: downward shortwave radiation (direct and diffuse) Stakeholder need: improved solar radiation representation in climate models... taken into account aerosols Area: Mediterranean basin + case study Temporal horizon: past climate and future climate (all) Partners: ICTP, CNRM State-of-the-art: – regional climate models include a poor representation of aerosols, often low-resolution (in space and time) climatology – Off-line regional chemistry models do exist but feedback on the radiation is not modelized Climate tools and products: Energy case study

3. Mediterranean climate and aerosols

4. Mediterranean aerosols : strong variability at all scales Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, 550 nm), MODIS (Aqua) Nabat et al. 2013, AMT

5. A new 2003-2009 monthly-mean climatology A new Mediterranean aerosol climatology (Nabat et al., 2013, AMT) – Usable for variability study (2003-2009) – Usable for driving any Med-CORDEX RCM (already tested in ALADIN)

6. Aerosol radiative effet in ALADIN : 2003-2009 mean Direct effect: absorption and scattering of solar incident radiation Semi-direct: change in atmosphere circulation and cloud cover Indirect: not taken into account here Nabat et al. (in prep.)

7. Aerosol radiative effet : long-term trend The brightening effect since the 80s: decrease in pollution (sulfate) in Europe leads to an increase in surface shortwave radiation Nabat et al., EGU 2013

8. Aerosol radiative effet : daily variability – Implementation of a fully interactive dust scheme in ALADIN – Case study for 22-29 June 2012: dust event and its radiative impact – Operational forecasts of Mediterranean dust event for the Charmex field campaign in Summer 2013 (on-going) 24 June 27 June 29 June

9. Aerosol radiative effet : daily variability A. Culot, E. Bruhier, Master thesis, 2013 Fès (Morocco) 23 June 2012 Mid-troposphere warming correlated with the maximum aerosol load Surface cooling (-1.5°C) (2x10 days)AODSWnet (W/m²)T2m (°C) Aerosol impact0.31- 38- 1.2 Fès (Morocco), composite study over June-July 2012

10. Conclusion and future plans Aerosols are key players in Mediterranean climate variability They strongly impact incident shortwave radiation at all the scales: daily event, seasonal cycle, spatial pattern, long-term trends, and probably scenario Aerosol-radiation interaction could be (is already ?) taken into account when dealing with solar plant planning or solar energy operational management New Mediterranean aerosol climatology is available Modelling aerosol-radiation requires full coupling interactive scheme: RegCM (ICTP) and ALADIN (CNRM) have this modelling capacity Quasi-operational weather forecast model including interactive dust scheme has been set-up Any products from this work ? What about interactive aerosols in seasonal forecast ? Work on aerosol representation in RCMs... towards Med-CORDEX-2 ?

11. Aerosols : effect of dust emission parameterization Effect of changing the dust emission scheme in RegCM: – case study: 31/10 to 02/11/2008 Nabat et al. 2012, ACP