1. 1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William Sound and Adjacent Alaska Coastal Waters YI CHAO, Carrie Zhang (& JPL ROMS Group) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet (& UCLA ROMS Group) UCLA

2. 2 Data Input Theoretical & Numerical Models (forward and inverse) Synthesis Products User Community Local Managers Education Public Outreach Observations (satellite, in situ) Observation Network Design 3D Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation: Connect Observations to Practical Applications Feedback Forecasting

3. 3 Prince William Sound (PWS) circulation is complex: small spatial scale, time scale varies from days to decades 2 AUG 04 SST Internal instability Local forcing by atmosphere, rivers, glaciers “Remote” forcing by El Nino, La Nina, PDO, & global warming

4. 4 Pacific Basin-Scale Modeling: Eddy-Permitting Resolution at 12.5-km (1520x1088x30) Columbia Computer (NASA Advanced Computer System) SGI Altix 10,000+ processors

5. 5 OBS Model Sea Surface Temperature

6. 6 9-km 3-km 1-km

7. 7 Climatology 2004 Transport Hinchinbrook Entrance Vs Montague Strait

8. 8 Climatology 2004 Hinchinbrook Entrance Meridional Current

9. 9 Winter 2004 Spring 2004 Summer 2004 Fall 2004 Hinchinbrook Entrance

10. 10 HF Radar Surface Current

11. 11 July 2-13 July 14-31 Aug. 1-15 Aug. 16-30

12. 12 Integrating Data with Models (or Data Assimilation) for Real-Time Nowcast and Forecast 12-hour forecast J = 0.5 (x-x f ) T B -1 (x-x f ) + 0.5 (h x-y) T R -1 (h x-y) Time Aug.1 00Z Aug.1 18Z Aug.1 12Z Aug.1 06Z Initial condition 6-hour forecast Aug.2 00Z X a = x f +  x f XaXa xfxf 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method: 3-day forecast y: observation x: model 6-hour assimilation cycle

13. 13 Data Input Theoretical & Numerical Models (forward and inverse) Synthesis Products User Community Local Managers Education Public Outreach Observations (satellite, in situ) Observation Network Design End-to-End Integration from Ocean Observing System & Model-based Nowcast/Forecast to Decision Making Feedback Forecasting

14. 14 Contact: Yi.Chao@jpl.nasa.gov 818-354-8168

15. 15

16. 16 Winter Climatology Spring Climatology Fall Climatology Summer Climatology Hinchinbrook Entrance

17. 17 Observation ROMS