1. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change and Plant Phenology in the Southeastern United States George R. Kish U.S. Geological Survey Tampa, Florida E-Mail: gkish@usgs.gov

2. Evidence  Key Findings  Temperature  Sea level  Snow cover © IPCC, 2007

3. Key Findings – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  Ecosystems on all continents affected  Globally ~20% to 30% of species will be at increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100  Conservation practices poorly prepared for adaptation  Effective adaptation will be costly

4. Projected climate change effects for the Southeast by 2090  Accelerated wildfire frequency – a warmer, longer dry season  Increased human health risks from exposure to heat  Increased pest epidemics (pine bark beetles)  Sea-level rise in coastal areas  Reduced availability of soil moisture to plants  Changes in ecosystem community dynamics  Soil drying leading to forest losses and savanna and grassland increases  Both drought and fire play an important role in the forest breakup

5. Summer Heat Heat Index = f (temperature, humidity)

6. Soil Moisture Change Precipitation Change

7. Phenology  Phenology - Study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of same or different species  Phenophase – Bud break, unfolding of first leaf, flowering, fruiting, turning of leaves, animal migration, emergence, growth stages, breeding, nesting, hibernation, etc.

8. First Leaf = widest part of green leaf past brown winter bud tips) Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J. Climatology Syringa vulgaris (common lilac) Syringa chinensis (cloned lilac)

9. Spring index - first leaf date for lilacs Schwartz and Reiter, 2000 International. J. Climatology Trend toward earlier first leaf date

10. Hu, Q., Weiss, A., Feng, S., & Baenziger, P.S. (2006) Early winter wheat heading dates and warmer springs in the U.S. Great Plains. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135:284. Heading date: when head (spike) on 50% of the Kharkof cultivar emerges from the flag leaf.

11. Smithonian Natural History Museum  100 plants in D.C. area  89 showed earlier blooming  Deadnettle  Bloom 39 days earlier than in 1970

12. Issues for Southeastern Phenology 1. Will heat tolerance of sensitive species cause shifts in range? 2. Will water stress along hydrologic gradients cause long-term shifts in plant community structure? 3. Are plants blooming or setting fruit earlier because of climate change? 4. Will these shifts alter species diversity and the function of ecosystems?

13. Species Range Shift  Many species reach their southernmost range in the Florida peninsula  Provides opportunity to monitor range shifts  Challenge – to isolate global climate change from ecological and local weather processes

14. Liriodendron tulipifera (tulip tree)  Large (>100 ft tall) deciduous tree typical of the mid-Atlantic region  Southern limit – mid-peninsular Florida  Monitoring phenology of key species will provide evidence of range shifts

15. Hydrologic Gradient Shift  Soil drying may cause species or community changes  Opportunities for exotic invasive plants  Long-term drying may permanently alter community structure  A serious issue for protecting wetlands

16. USF EcoArea

17. Xeric Mesic Hydric

18. Hydrologic Gradient Sandhill (xyric) Transition (mesic) Cypress Swamp (hydric) (Source: G.Kish, unpublished data from USF EcoArea)

19. Turkey oak Saw palmetto Scrub live oak Xeric Site Longleaf pine

20. Mesic Site Ferns Laurel oak

21. High water line Bald cypress Hydric Site Pop ash

22. Species Distribution  Xeric site  Longleaf pine, turkey oak, scrub live oak  Mesic site  Laurel oak, slash pine  Hydric site  Bald cypress, pop ash Wet Dry

23. Species Abundance

24. Monitoring Strategies for Change  Life cycle – timing, vulnerability to heat and water stress  Range – northward retreat or elimination of heat-sensitive species; colonization by opportunistic species  Hydrologic gradient - replacement of hydric species along hydrologic gradients in response to drought and hydroperiod changes  Community structure

25. Intensive Sites Spatially Extensive Science Networks Remote Sensing and Synoptic (wall-to-wall) Data Decreasing Spatial Coverage Increasing Process Knowledge Data Quality # of Measurements USA-NPN Monitoring Framework Spatially Extensive Volunteer & Education Networks AmeriFlux NWS Coop NPS Inv. & Mon. State Ag. Exp. Sta. Nature Preserves, Campuses NASA USGS NOAA Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4

26. Southeastern Phenology Network Plans  Uncover Legacy Data  Citizen scientists  Biological Research Stations and Nature Preserves  Botanical Gardens and Herbariums  Theses and dissertations  Southeastern Phenology Workshops  Implement monitoring protocols for Southeast  Select Tier 1, 2, and 3 sites for Region  Develop remote sensing approach  Design web site  Develop priority research agenda