1. Japanese Reanalysis JRA-25 and JRA-55 H. Kamahori 1, A. Ebita 2, S. Kobayashi 2, Y. Ota 2, M. Moriya 2, R. Kumabe 2, K. Onogi 2, Y. Harada 2, S. Yasui 2, K. Miyaoka 2, K. Takahashi 2, C. Kobayashi 1, H. Endo 1, M. Soma 2, Y. Oikawa 2, T. Ishimizu 2 1 MRI, 2 JMA

2. Overview of JRA-25 Japanese 25-years Reanalysis Long range reanalysis based on JMA's operational global assimilation system Joint Project by JMA and CRIEPI Target Period : 1979-2004 Completed in 2005 Continued as operational JCDAS after 2005

3. Input Observation in JRA-25 1980 1990 20002004 Translucent : available but not used White : not in JMA 95.4 01.1 01.10 82.5 87.3 88.5 03.12 98.11 98.10 87.6 84.5 03.5 (HIRS,MSU 1d / SSU 1c used) 93.7 93.12 96.1 Conventional (ERA-40 obs.) (JMA-archives) CMV/AMV METEOSAT Reprocessed AMV GMS Reprocessed AMV TOVS 1c ATOVS 1c ERS-1,2 QuikSCAT Chinese Snow SSM/I PW,snow MODIS polar wind Wind Profiler Fiorino TCR wind 02.08

4. Performance of JRA-25 Tropical Cyclones Global Temperature Forecast Score as initial state of JRA-25 Global Precipitation

5. 1200 UTC 15 September 1990 in the eastern North Pacific 1800 UTC 19 September 1990 in the western North Pacific Impact of TC Wind Retrieval Data Hatsushika et al., 2005 Flo Control without TCR Norbert Marie Control without TCR Using TC wind data, tropical cyclones are properly represented JRA-25 with TCR

6. Global Detection Rate of Tropical Cyclones Grey ： Observed TC (Best track) Blue : Detected TC Courtesy: H. Hatsushika The detecting method is based on 1. relative vorticity 2. sea level pressure 3. tropospheric thickness. Detection rate JRA-25 ~ 90% ERA-40 ~ 50%

7. Surface air temperature Trend Global Temperature Anomaly JRA-25, ERA-40, CRU(Jones) Top : monthly mean, Bottom : 5-year moving avarage Distribution of tendency (K/decade) JRA-25 and ERA-40 Courtesy: J. Tsutsui

8. 8 Anomaly from averaged temperature of each level for each reanalysis Natural variability in troposphere with ENSO Artificial variability in stratosphere with Satellite data Courtesy: J. Tsutsui and M. Sakamoto Global Temperature Anomaly

9. year Forecast Score (Z500 FT=24 RMSE) JRA NH Operational NH JRA NH NH score is nearly constant  homogenous quality in NH SH score is time dependent  not homogenous in SH

10. Global Precipitation Score for JRA-25 is larger than others GPCP vs. CMAP Observation uncertainty

11. JRA-25 Products Available from 1. JMA http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/index_en.html 2. NCAR http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds625.0/

12. JRA-25 references The JRA-25 Reanalysis J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432. K. Onogi, J. Tsusui, H. Koide, M. Sakamoto, S. Kobayashi, H. Hatsushika, T. Matsumoto, N. Yamazaki, H. Kamahori, K. Takahashi, S. Kadokura, K. Wada, K. Kato, R. Oyama, T. Ose, N. Mannoji and R. Taira JRA-25 : Japanese 25-year Reanalysis – progress and status – Onogi et al., QJRMS special issue of the WMO 4th DA workshop (April 2005), Vol.131, 3259-3268.

13. Main Feature of JRA-25 Good points 1. Better representation of global precipitation 2. Better representation of tropical cyclones 3. Stratus cloud in continental west-coast Shortcomings 1. Relatively short target period 2. Dry bias in Amazon 3. Large bias in stratospheric temperature

14. Outline of JRA-55 FY2009-FY2012 : calculation Global reanalysis(60km, 1958 - 2012) FY2013~ Product distributeded for Research communities New JCDAS with same system as JRA-55

15. Data assimilation system JRA-25/JCDASJRA-55Operational(2010) Tareget period1979 - present1958 - present - Assimilation3D-VAR4D-VAR Resolution (Outer Model) T106L40 (Top : 0.4hPa) TL319L60 (Top : 0.1hPa) TL959L60 (Top : 0.1hPa) Resolution (Inner Model) T106L40 (Top : 0.4hPa) T106L60 (Top : 0.1hPa) T159L60 (Top : 0.1hPa) SST COBE v1.2 （ ~2000) 〃 v1.22 （ 2001~ ） (1-deg resolution) COBE v1.5 (1-deg resolution) MGDSST (0.25-deg resolution) Green house gases Constant CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-22 Constant Ozone Daily 3D historical (CTM T42L45) Daily 3D climatology (~1978) Daily 3D historical (1979~) (CTM T42L68) Daily 3D climatology (CTM T42L68)

16. N2O(ppb) CH4(ppb) CFC-22(ppt) CFC-12(ppt) 1958 ～ 1983:CMIP5 1984 ～： WDCGG 1958 ～ 1979:CMIP5 1980 ～： WDCGG 1958:Ice Core(Etheridge et al.) 1989 ～ 1979 ： Keeling MLO 1980 ～： WDCGG 1958 ～ 2005:CMIP5 2006 ～： CMIP5 for 2005 1958 ～ 2005:CMIP5 2006 ～： CMIP5 for 2005 1958 ～ 2005:CMIP5 2006 ～： CMIP5 for 2005 CO2(ppm) CFC-11(ppt) Green House Gases

17. Input Observation in JRA-55 First use in any reanalysis Utilized in JRA-55, but no use in JRA-25/JCDAS Conventional Satellite(Imager) Satellite(Reprocessed imager) Satellite(Sounder) Satellite(Other)

18. JMA ECMWF UKMO NCEP Improvements in Global Model Model for JRA-25 Model for JRA-55 RMSE : Root Mean Square Error RMSE(m) Lower RMSE means higher quality reanalysis products. RMSE for 24hour 500hPa geopotential height in NH(m)

19. Available Reanalyses NameOrganizationtarget Assimilation Resolution Status R1 NCEP/NCAR 1948- present 3D-Var T62L28(200km ） Ongoing R2 NCEP/DOE 1979- present 3D-Var T62L28(200km) Ongoing ERA-15 ECMWF 1979-1993 3D-OI T106L31(120km) Completed GEOS1 NASA/DAO 1980-1995 3D-OI + IAU 2×2.5deg L20 Completed ERA-40 ECMWF 1957-2002 3D-Var TL159L60(120km) Completed ERA- interim ECMWF 1979- present 4D-Var TL255L60(80km) Ongoing JRA-25 JMA/CRIEPI 1979- present 3D-Var T106L40(120km) Ongoing JRA-55 JMA 1958- present 4D-Var TL319L60(60km) Processing

20. Schedule of JRA-55 The target period is divided to 3 streams. ・ Stream A : 1958-1980 (pre-satellite era) ・ Stream B : 1979-2003 (developing-satellite era) ・ Stream C : 2002-2012 (full-satellite era) completed

21. Preliminary Results of JRA-55 Forecast Score Global Temperature Global Precipitation Radiation

22. Score of Extended Forecast Z500RMSE(GPM) 12-month running mean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 48h forecast 120h forecast JRA-25JRA-55Operational

23. Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Difference from CRU Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Anomaly

24. Global Mean Precipitation Observation All reanalyses overestimate global precipitation.

25. Anomaly Correlation against GPCC GPCC: Global Precipitation Climatology Project under WCRP is gridding observation with rain gauge data (1901~). Global precipitation of JRA-55 has better quality than others.

26. Global Mean Radiation Flux Comparison with ERBE,or SRB 1988 Jun - Dec. ERBE : Earth Radiation Budget Experiment SRB : Surface Radiation Budget Black : Obs.(ERBE 、 SRB) Green : JRA-55 Red : JRA-25 Radiation flux is significantly Improved in JRA-55 Upward Short-wave on Top Upward Long-wave on Top Downward Short-wave on Bottom Downward Long-wave on Bottom

27. JRA-55 Subsets Conventional reanalysis utilize all available observations to aim at the higher quality as possible and is for all purpose. Until now, we have to make such all purpose reanalysis due to limitation of computer resources and man powers. Now, it is possible to make reanalysis subsets for specific purposes (not for all purpose). Homogenous reanalysis available for climate change research.

28. 28 Anomaly from averaged temperature of each level for each reanalysis Natural variability in troposphere with ENSO Artificial variability in stratosphere with Satellite data Courtesy: J. Tsutsui and M. Sakamoto Global Temperature Anomaly

29.  S/N of conventional reanalysis is too large to study climate change.  This is due to the dependency of reanalysis on observations (Satellite).  Reanalysis specialized in climate change study.  Only with no time change observations (SYNOPs, TEMPs) Reanalysis only with no time change Obs. JRA-55C Reanalysis for climate change research

30. JRA-55C Progress of the calculation Global mean precipitation (12 month running mean)

31. AMIP RUN Reanalysis products = hybrid of observations and model --> model have some bias --> bias information is important “AMIP experiment with only boundary condition” Analysis increment in JRA-25 Temp. (Anl-Guess) Negative Bias Positive Bias Negative Bias

32. Preliminary Result of AMIP Zonal mean temperature over 1958-1967 (JRA55-AMIP) ・ Negative bias in lower troposphere in high latitude ・ Positive bias in lower troposphere in tropics 東西風 DJF JJA

33. Summary JRA-55 improves many shortcomings in JRA-25. Improved in JRA-55, precipitation, radiation fluxes,,, JRA-55 is now processing, and a half of the period has been completed. JRA-55 will be completed in 2013 spring, and be started distribution for research uses. MRI has also been processing JRA-55 subset for climate studies. JRA-55C JRA-55AMIP

34. Thank you very much

36. JRA-25 and JCDAS JRA-25 (1979-2004) Joint project by JMA and CRIPIE JCDAS (2005-) JMA’s operational assimilation with same assimilation system as JRA-25 JRA-25 copyright by JMA and CRIPIE JCDAS copyright by JMA But, both are a series of things, and end users do not need to distinguish it.