1. RPSEA Overview and Project Status NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy for America Greg Holland 1

2. Workshop Schedule Monday 8 March: Overview and Methodology 13:00-15:00 Overview and Project Status 13:00-13:40 Progress Overview (Greg Holland) 13:40-14:05 Offshore Industry Perspective (Cort Cooper) 14:05-14:35 GFDL Research (Tom Knutson) 14:35-15:00 Other Recent Research (Greg Holland) 15:00-15:20 Afternoon Tea 15:20-17:00 Methodology 15:20-15:45 Model Set-up (Cindy Bruyere) 15:45-16:10 Sensitivity Studies (James Done) 16:10-16:35 Comparison with Other Studies (Greg Holland) 16:35-17:00 Hurricane Intensity (Greg Holland) 17:00-17:30 General Discussion 17:30-18:30 Reception at NCAR, 19:00 Dinner at Dushanbe 2Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

3. Workshop Schedule Tuesday 9 March: Results and Future Work 08:30-10:35 Results Part 1 08:30-08:55 Identifying Model Hurricanes (Asuka Suzuki) 08:55-09:20 Hurricane Frequency (Asuka Suzuki) 09:20-09:55 Statistical Downscaling (Cindy Bruyere) 09:55-10:25 Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling (Asuka Suzuki ) 10:30-11:00 Morning Tea 11:00-11:45 Results Part 2 10:45-12:00 Importance for Offshore Energy Industry (James Done) 11:45-13:00 Lunch (provided) and also a brief tour of NCAR for those who are interested 13:0-15:00 Wrap Up General Discussion (Cort Cooper, Chair) Next Stages (Greg Holland, Chair) 15:00-16:00 Afternoon Tea and Informal Discussion, then close 3Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

4. Project Overview and Status 4Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

5. Task 1: Model Set-Up and Initial Testing 1.Analysis of 1995-2005 period. Done 2.Test and further develop and test two statistical downscaling approaches: Hurricane Genesis Potential (GP) climatological relationship of Emanuel and Nolan (2004); Done Development of a new downscaling technique to help specify the climatology of the more intense hurricanes using modeling simulations at 12 and 4 km resolution; Done 5Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

6. Genesis Potential Index Emanuel and Nolan (2004) Camargo (2007) Presentation on statistical downscaling by Cindy Bruyere 6Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

7. Channel Model Simulations Observation 1995 - 2000 Regional Model 1995 - 2000 Presentation by James Done on model sensitivity and uncertainty 7Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

8. Task 2: Intermediate Testing 50-y simulations of current climate and comparisons of both atmosphere and GOM ocean: Done – Compare multiyear-trends in wind shear in the North Atlantic hurricane latitudes of the free- running results to that in the assimilating results; Done, led to bias correction to CCSM – Compare multi-year trends in mixed-layer ocean temperature. Done 8Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

9. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis CCSM Windshear Bias in CCSM Presentation on model set up by Cindy Bruyere and comparison with other studies by Greg Holland 9

10. Regional Model: New Results Presentation by Asuka Suzuki on Frequency 10Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

11. Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts WRF 12 km WRF 36 km Image by Steve Dayo @UCAR CCSM ~ 150 km 11Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

12. Task 3: 50-Y Forecasts 11-y Time slices: 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055: – 36 km resolution; Done – 12 km resolution; Under way at Argonne NL – Selected 4-km simulations; Awaiting 12 km New Task: 25 km global simulation with full CCSM. On hold 12Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

13. Additional Work New approach to identifying tropical cyclones in model simulations; Done Application of the Emanuel Statistical Downscaling method to hurricanes; Done Presentations by Asuka Suzuki on cyclone identification and Emanuel Model, and by Cindy Bruyere on statistical downscaling. 13Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

14. Additional Work Development and application of the Willis Hurricane Index; Done Application of Extreme Value Theory to assessing intense hurricane changes based on model output. Done 14Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

15. Willis Hurricane Index Average WHI vs Losses R 2 =0.91 Presentation on Importance to Offshore Energy Industry by James Done 15Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

16. Application of EVT to NRCM Predictions PE69=Cat5 PE58-Cat4,5 PE48=Major Hurricanes PE32=Hurricanes Presentation on extreme value theory by Greg Holland 16Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

17. Additional Work Paper to the Offshore Technology Conference 2010 (May): – Holland, G.J., J. Done, C. Bruyere, C. Cooper and A. Suzuki, 2010: Model Investigations of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Future Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone Activity. OTC Metocean 2010 Special Industry Session at the American Meteorological Society Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference (May) – Afternoon and evening sessions, 10 presentations and a panel discussion. 17Holland RPSEA Overview 0310

18. Overall Results 18Holland RPSEA Overview 0310 Impact on Gulf Caveat on small size of area, which amplifies uncertainty. Damage expected to stay reasonably stable, due to reduction in size countering increased intensity Genesis Locations 25%

19. Summary The required task list is largely completed except for completion and analysis of the 12/4 km simulations, which are well on the way: Task 1: Model Setup and Initial Testing is completed Task 2: Intermediate Testing is completed Task 3: 50-y Forecasts: 36 km completed, 12 and 4 km under way, 25 km global on hold, all statistical downscaling completed. Additional work: Emanual downscaling, Willis Hurricane Index, Extreme value theory application, conference papers and sessions. New completion date of December 2010 will enable considerable further work and analysis to be provided Holland RPSEA Overview 0310