1. Unit 8

2. Unit 8 Objectives
Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products.
Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products.
Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations.
Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

3. Meeting Fire Management Needs
Fire weather/fire potential products help:
Plan daily fire management activities
Plan effective control actions
Determine short and long term fire potential
Products developed by:
Land Management Predictive Services
National Weather Service (NWS)

4. Predictive Services
Combined group of fire Intelligence Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire Meteorologists.
Each GACC has a predictive services group to meet the needs of the geographic area.
GACC level information is integrated into national level outlooks.

5. Predictive Services
Reno
8-5-S290-EP

6. Predictive Services Products and Services
Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather, fire danger and interagency fire management resource impact.
Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire danger outlooks for predetermined predictive service zones.
Zones based on RAWS climatology and topography.

7. Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones
Products and Services
Products are targeted to aid resource related decision-making at the GACC and national levels
Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones

8. Predictive Services Suite of Products 7-Day Significant Fire Potential
Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook
National Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook
Seasonal Assessment Outlook
Other products

9. 7 Day Significant Fire Potential
8-9-S290-EP

10. 7 Day Significant Fire Potential
Predictive Services
7 Day Significant Fire Potential
Provides fire potential for a geographical area
The product includes:
Weather/fuels discussion
Current and projected fuel dryness
Fire potential discussion map
Significant weather
High risk days
Resource concerns

11. Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook
Fire danger report and map
8-11-S290-EP

12. Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook
Predictive Services
Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook
Monthly:
Generated by the GACCs
Includes:
A brief discussion of general weather/fire danger for the GA
A brief discussion on current GA fuel anomalies/fuel moisture
Predicted temperature and precipitation
Fire potential map

13. National Wildland Fire Outlook
Predictive Services
National Wildland Fire Outlook
8-13-S290-EP

14. National Wildland Fire Outlook
Predictive Services
National Wildland Fire Outlook
National Monthly Outlook:
Issued monthly and year-round
Compiled from each GA monthly fire weather/fire danger outlook
Product includes:
GACC narratives
Current and projected fire statistics
Fire potential map

15. Predictive Services Seasonal Assessments
Issued on both Geographic and National levels prior to fire season
Product typically includes:
Executive summary
Introduction and objectives
Current situation
Comparison of current and historical conditions
Climate, weather, fire forecasts and outlooks

16. Predictive Services Seasonal Assessments
Predicted fire occurrence and resource needs
Future scenarios and probabilities
Considerations, concerns and management implications
Summary, discussions and recommendations
8-16-S290-EP

17. Other Products and Services
Predictive Services
Other Products and Services
Weather briefings
Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts
Long term precipitation monitoring
Smoke management summaries
Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke management (California)
IMET or technical specialist support by qualified GACC meteorologists

18. National Weather Service
Consists of over 120 offices
Has a variety of operational programs, including fire weather

19. National Weather Service
Products and Services
The Fire Weather Program:
A core suite of standardized fire weather products
Consultation services for prevention, suppression, and other land management activities
Optional products at regional and local office discretion
Products issued by core forecast staff at local office for fire weather service area (fire weather zones)

20. National Weather Service
Products and Services
The Fire Weather Program

21. Fire Weather Planning Forecast
National Weather Service
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
8-21-S290-EP

22. Fire Weather Forecasts and Statements provided by the National Weather Service
Fire Weather Planning Forecasts
NFDRS Forecasts
Smoke Management Forecasts
Spot Weather Forecasts
Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings
Wildland Fire Danger Statements

23. Fire Weather Planning Forecast
National Weather Service
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
A narrative or tabular zone-type product
Purpose:
Pre-suppression for fire management
Initial attack readiness
Daily staffing levels
Prevention program
Account for local topography
Is not site specific

24. Fire Weather Planning Forecast
National Weather Service
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
FWF Elements Include:
Fire weather headlines and discussion
Sky and weather
Temperature
Relative humidity
Surface (20-foot) wind
3 to 7 day outlook

25. National Weather Service Fire Weather Planning Forecast
Elements may include:
Haines Index
Ridge Top Winds
Mixing Heights
Transport Winds
Dispersion
Clearing Index
Chance of wetting rain (CWR)

26. Lightning Activity Level
LAL 1 – no thunderstorms
LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfall
LAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall
LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms, moderate rainfall
LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall
LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.

27. National Weather Service
Spot Weather Forecast
Spot Forecasts:
site specific
issued to fit time, topography and weather of a specific location
Used for:
wildfires
prescribed burns
spray projects
hazmat situations
other special projects

28. National Weather Service
Spot Weather Forecast
NWS Spot
national standard for spot requests
request/reply web program
should be used when possible

29. Spot Weather Forecast Request Form
National Weather Service
Spot Weather Forecast Request Form
Request Form includes:
Project name
Requesting agency
Location
Fuel type
Observations
Forecast elements
Remarks
Submit
8-29-S290-EP

30. Spot Weather Forecast Returned
National Weather Service
Spot Weather Forecast Returned
Completed Spot Forecast
Valid time period
Topo maps of location
Location information
Elevation, aspect
Fuel type
Observations
Requested parameters
Forecast
Discussion
Forecast elements
Feedback

31. Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts
National Weather Service
Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts
Take and record representative weather observations on the fire
Complete the NWS Spot request form
Transmit the NWS Spot request form
Provide forecaster feedback on accuracy of forecast

32. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
National Weather Service
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
8-32-S290-EP

33. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
National Weather Service
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
The National Weather Service will issue a
watch or warning
to alert fire and land managers of
CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING weather conditions that will potentially increase fire danger in a significant way.

34. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
National Weather Service
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
Fire Weather Watch:
High potential for red flag event in hours
May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry thunderstorms
Red Flag Warning:
Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red flag event
Issued when confidence is high that red flag conditions will occur in 24 hours or less

35. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
National Weather Service
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
Criteria may be based on locally or regionally established thresholds
General criteria may include high to extreme fire danger in combination with:
Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur)
First lightning after an extremely dry period

36. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
National Weather Service
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
Unusually low relative humidity
Very dry and unstable air (high Haines)
Very strong and shifting winds that may or may not be associated with a cold front

37. Smoke Management Forecast
National Weather Service
Smoke Management Forecast
Content may include:
Discussion
Transport winds
Mixing height
Stability
Dispersion
Local Fire Management and NWS should establish content, format, and frequency of issuance

38. Retrieving Fire Weather Information Internet and other Communication
Main Sources Fire Weather Products:
Predictive Services web sites
National Predictive Services Homepage
Local NWS web sites
National Weather Service Homepage
Alternative Sources
Phone or radio communications from interagency dispatch center

39. Retrieving Fire Weather Information Real-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN)
8-39-S290-EP

40. Retrieving Fire Weather Information Real-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN)
Weather observation retrieval web application
Simple menu system
Data displayed on regional or local scale

41. Incident Meteorologist
On-Site Weather Support
Incident Meteorologist
8-41-S290-EP

42. Incident Meteorologist
On-Site Weather Support
Incident Meteorologist
Include NWS, land management, or state meteorologists
Issue incident specific forecasts
Give weather briefings
Collect weather information

43. 8-43-S290-EP

44. NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
On-Site Weather Support
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
Atmospheric Theodolite Meteorological Unit (ATMU)
Upper air observing
PIBAL and Theodolite

45. NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
On-Site Weather Support
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
High speed two-way satellite dish for data transmitting and receiving
All Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS)

46. Fire Behavior Analyst Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN)
Calculates predicted fire behavior
Produces fire behavior forecast

47. Fire Behavior Analyst and Incident Meteorologist
IMET works for FBAN
IMET prepares detailed forecast
FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast
FBAN
IMET

48. Fire Behavior Forecast
8-48-S290-EP

49. Fire Behavior Forecast
Prepared by FBA
Meets needs of the fire overhead organization
The Product:
Interprets wildland fire calculations
Describes past and expected wildland fire behavior
Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for ground and aircraft activities

50. Unit 8 Objectives
Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products.
Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products.
Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations.
Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.