1. Eastern Promise: Can Asian growth be sustained? Speakers Tristan Hanson Jonathan Schiessl Craig Farley Investment Presentation Jersey - October 2009

2. Climate change Tristan Hanson Investment Outlook October 2009

3. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Performance since last Investment Briefings +10.9% +8.5% +6.9% +3.7% 110 115 Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09 Ashburton M-A Aggressive £ Ashburton Replica AM £ MSCI World (local ccy) Global Bonds (local ccy)

4. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Performance since last Investment Briefings Regional Equity Performance 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09 Asia ex Japan Europe US Japan

5. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Performance since last Investment Briefings Performance vs US$ (2009 YTD) 0 0.9 3.3 4.3 9.3 11.3 12.9 19.9 23.1 0510152025 US $ Jap Yen Swiss Fr. Euro GBP Swedish Kr CAD $ Norwegian Kr AUS $ Performance vs US$ (Jun 9th - Oct 2nd) -2.2 0 2.3 3.6 4.2 8 8.4 9.2 -4-20246810 GBP US $ CAD $ Euro Swiss Fr. AUS $ Jap Yen Norwegian Kr Swedish Kr

6. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009  Equities – further upside potential  Government bonds (US/Europe) - oversold and no longer overvalued  Sterling preferred currency major Macro views  Global economy poised for recovery  Long-term structural growth concerns remain  Inflation fears overdone Key points – June 2009

7. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009  Valuations of risk assets are no longer at distressed levels  However, current policy mix is very positive for asset prices  Potential for economic rebound to be stronger than consensus expectation  Longer-term structural concerns remain Market Views  Positive backdrop for risk assets: equities, commodities, emerging markets  Government bonds supported by low interest rates, but look overbought  Asian, EM & Commodity currencies to outperform majors  Sterling oversold on a short-term basis Current Views – October 2009

8. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Leading Indicators point to growth rebound OECD Leading Indicator (6m chg, annl %) -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Jul-61Jul-64Jul-67 Jul-70Jul-73 Jul-76Jul-79Jul-82Jul-85Jul-88Jul-91Jul-94 Jul-97 Jul-00Jul-03 Jul-06Jul-09

9. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Leading Indicators point to growth rebound Source: FactSet, Nomura China: OECD Leading Indicator (6m % chg, annl) China: industrial production (% YoY, 6m avg)

10. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 IMF Growth Projections Source: IMF ProjectionsDifference from Jul 09 WEO projections 20082009201020092010 World output3.0-1.13.30.30.6 Advanced economies0.6-3.41.30.40.7 United States0.4-2.71.5-0.10.7 Euro area0.7-4.20.30.6 Japan-0.7-5.41.70.60.0 United Kingdom0.7-4.40.9-0.20.7 Newly industrialised Asian economies1.5-2.43.62.82.2 Emerging and developing economies6.01.75.10.20.4 China9.08.59.01.00.5 India7.35.46.40.0-0.1 Brazil5.1-0.73.50.61.0 Mexico1.3-7.33.30.00.3

11. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Consensus expectation is a modest recovery Source: Macroeconomic Advisers 1948-49 1234 5 6 7 89 1960-61 1969-70 1957-58 2001 1973-75 1980 1953-54 1981-82 1990-91 2007-2009 (MA forecast) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Strength of recovery versus severity of preceding recession Negative growth in recession (versus trend) Sharper recovery Deeper recession "% growth in recovery phase

12. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Why global recovery can be sustained in 2010:  China is growing rapidly  Massive global inventory cycle underway  Significant global fiscal stimulus in the pipeline  Monetary policy takes 12-18 months to be fully effective  US/UK housing is stabilising  Banking system risks have abated  Corporate profitability is recovering (productivity gains)  The global defibrillator is working: ‘animal spirits’ alive once again

13. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 G7’s share of world GDP growth is shrinking Source: Ashburton, IMF Share of World Growth (volume) % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1981-19901991-20002001-20082009-2014 EUUSChina

14. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 “Sweet spot” – no pressure yet on interest rates Source: Ashburton, Bloomberg

15. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 “Sweet spot” – no pressure yet on interest rates Source: Ashburton, Bloomberg US GDP: deviation from trend -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Mar-85 Mar-87Mar-89Mar-91 Mar-93Mar-95Mar-97Mar-99Mar-01Mar-03Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 US GDP & trend 8.7 9.2 9.7

16. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Why are bond yields so low? Source: Ashburton, Bloomberg 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan-99 Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 % UK 10yr yieldUK 2yr yield

17. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Valuations: no longer distressed Source: Cazenove, iBoxx

18. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Valuations: no longer distressed Source: FactSet World Equity Market PE (12mf EPS) 5 10 15 20 25 30 Oct-91 Oct-93Oct-95Oct-97Oct-99Oct-01Oct-03 Oct-05Oct-07

19. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Valuations: equities attractive compared to bonds, cash Source: Ashburton, Bloomberg -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Sep-89 Sep-92 Sep-95Sep-98Sep-01Sep-04 Sep-07 % US Earnings Yield US Real Bond Yield US Real Fed Funds Rate

20. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Strong rebound in profits likely  Barclays Capital US operating earnings model Source: Barclays Capital, Haver Analytics

21. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Strong rebound in profits likely  Unit labour costs falling faster than prices Source: Ashburton, FactSet, Barclays Capital Shading indicates rising US profits as share of GDP

22. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Risks to rosy 12-month view HedgesLikelihood – Ashburton view 1. Significant China slowdownGovt bonds, US$Low 2. Public finance crisis in G7 country Cash, Gold, Asian/Cmdty. govt bonds & FX Low 3. Banking crisis relapseCash, Gold, Govt bondsLow 4. US dollar crisisCommodities, Cmdty FXLow/Moderate 5. Weak G7 recoveryGovt Bonds; Asian FXModerate 3. Rapid growth → interest rate hikesCommodities, Equities, CashModerate/High 7. Geopolitical risk increasesGovt bonds, Cash, Gold?

23. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Long-term consequences of the crisis Source: IMF

24. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Long-term consequences of the crisis Source: IMF

25. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Long-term consequences of the crisis Source: IMF

26. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Investment Strategy

27. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Investment Strategy - Ashburton Asset Management Fund Asset allocationOct-09Jun-09 Bonds (max = 70%)43%54% Govt/Govt Guaranteed26%24% Supranational-13% Inflation-linked bonds11%13% Corporate6%4% Equities (max = 50%)33%39% US13% Pan Europe10%11% Asia7%15% Alternatives1%- Cash/Tbills23%7% 100% Source: Ashburton as at 5 October 2009

28. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Investment Strategy Replica Asset Management Fund– currency overlay Currency Weightings (%) - Oct £€$ GBP878- EUR-67- USD-382 JPY--- AUD-62 NOK-3- TWD555 INR555 Other Asia336 Currency Weightings (%) - Jun £€$ GBP8955 EUR-75- USD-482 JPY--- AUD-3- NOK35- TWD555 INR--- Other Asia338

29. Eastern Promise | Ashburton Investment presentation | October2009 Ashburton Multi Asset Funds  Exposure to a diverse set of risks: equity, interest rate, FX, credit, regional  Exploit inefficiencies at the asset class level  Fundamental research  Valuation  Sentiment  Technical analysis  Inter-market analysis  Active asset allocation  Unconstrained  Absolute return mindset Aim: Cash-plus returns over the cycle with low volatility  “Tortoise vs Hare” } Are probabilistic outcomes mis-priced?

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