1. Going sustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green blue? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia @ProfRayWills

2. Adoption rate of technology Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can impact Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by:  consumer sentiment;  policy measures and regulation;  pricing advantage. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

3. Roger’s diffusion curve

4. Wake up and smell the roses Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

5. Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

7. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

9. The Big Bang Theory NY Times

10. Technology adoption rates

12. Technology energy use www.epri.com Televisions Laptop Tablet Computer

13. Electricity generation - Australia

14. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

15. Potential EV growth

16. Global renewables 2014 +>

17. Declining price on solar

19. Global renewables

21. Global energy – fossil and renewables

22. Global energy – impact on emissions

23. US energy sources changing

24. Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

25. Solving energy poverty

26. Evolving markets

27. Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.

28. @ProfRayWills

29. Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive Rapid change - mobility

30. Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen

31. Commercial vehicles Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus - diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle

32. Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1 st biofuel flight (But 1 st USAF - 30 Oct 07) (QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 ) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

33. Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids… Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

34. Green cities consuming less energy Global  Tianjin Eco-City China  Ulsan Ecocity Korea  Masdar City UAE Australia  City of Sydney  City of Melbourne  City of Townsville  City of Fremantle Local government critical  Nimble government  Community demand

35. Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity