1. Global warming and polar tidewater glacier response: A Canadian IPY project on Belcher Glacier, Nunavut B.Beauchamp Sarah Boon(1); Dave Burgess(2); Luke Copland(3); Gwenn Flowers(4); Jeff Kavanaugh(2); Shawn Marshall(5); Martin Sharp(2); Lev Tarasov(6) (1)U of N.B.C, (2)U. of Alberta, (3)U. of Ottawa, (4)Simon Fraser, (5)U. of Calgary, (6)M.U.N.

2. Rahmstorf et al, Science Express, Feb 2007 Mauna Loa CO 2 record Global Mean Annual Air Temperature c.f. IPCC Scenarios Global Mean Sea Level c.f. IPCC Scenarios THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS MORE SENSITIVE IS MORE SENSITIVE THAN WE THOUGHT

3. WHAT’S DRIVING THE SEA LEVEL RISE ? WHAT’S DRIVING THE SEA LEVEL RISE ?? ENHANCED MASS LOSS FROM GREENLAND Luthcke et al, Science, 2006 Alley et al., Annals of Glaciology, in press

4. WHY THE ENHANCED LOSS? OUTLET GLACIER ACCELERATED OUTLET GLACIER FLOW Rignot & Kanagaratnam, Science, 2006 Ekstrom et al, Science, 2006 Outlet Glacier velocities m/yr Glacier Earthquakes

5. OUTLET GLACIER RETREAT, THINNING AND ICEBERG CALVING I. Howat et al., GRL, 2005 Helheim Glacier Frontal Retreat 2000 2004 Velocity Thickness Change

6. WHAT’S DRIVING THESE CHANGES? Two main hypotheses: –From the top – increased or more widespread penetration of surface meltwater to the glacier bed enhances sliding –From the bottom – terminus destabilisation by flotation (due to rising sea level or thinning caused by increased surface or marine melt) reduces flow resistance But which is it ? Hard to measure in Greenland A. Gardner

7. IPY GLACIODYN: International Researchers from 17 countries Tidewater Arctic glaciers – role of dynamics in response to climate warming –Canada, Alaska, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Russia B.Danielson

8. IPY GLACIODYN Canada Canadian Participants Martin Sharp, Jeff Kavanaugh, (U. Alberta) Shawn Marshall (U. Calgary), Gwenn Flowers (SFU) Sarah Boon (UNBC), Luke Copland (U. Ottawa) Trevor Bell, Lev Tarasov (Memorial) Dave Burgess, Laurence Gray (CCRS) International Collaborators Tony Payne, Jemma Wadham (Bristol University, UK) Bernd Kulessa (University of Wales, Swansea) Andy Smith (British Antarctic Survey)

9. Devon Queen Elizabeth Islands Canadian site: Devon Island Ice Cap

10. Study site: Belcher Glacier

11. Goals 1.Develop high order coupled model of outlet glacier dynamics –incorporate surface mass balance, glacier hydrology, ice flow and iceberg calving 2.Collect detailed field and remotely sensed data –Design, initialize, drive, and validate model 3.Run model –Explore Belcher Glacier response to climate change atmospheric and oceanic climate amount and distribution of surface water inputs to glacier bed Ice dynamics, terminus stability and iceberg calving What are the important processes?

12. snow Surface mass balance model Whole ice cap flow model Coupled hydrology/ thermomechanical outlet glacier flow model Iceberg calving mechanics Methods: Modelling Lev Tarasov G. Flowers

13. Mass balance –radar, ice cores, AWS, stakes, remote sensing of summer melt Hydrology & Drainage –remote sensing, time lapse photography, hydrometric measurements, Topography –Kinematic GPS, Airborne laser altimetry, Photogrammetry Methods: Surface Processes & Properties S. Boon Thickness Changes 1960-2005 Distance from Glacier Head (km) Surface elevation change (m/yr) B.Danielson

14. Subglacial topography –RES, GPR Bed properties and their temporal variability –seismic reflection and monitoring Methods: Sub-surface characteristics NOAA M. Davis W.Krabill

15. Methods: Offshore bathymetry and water column properties RCGS Amundsen

16. Remote sensing –InSAR Field measurements –wireless GPS Methods: Ice velocities D. Burgess D. Burgess et al., J.Glaciology, 2005

17. On what timescale does Belcher Glacier respond to climate warming? How is glacier response regulated by changes in the rate and mechanism of ice flow? If so, what causes these changes? How do these changes amplify those caused by surface mass balance alone? Key questions (1) F. Cawkwell

18. Are changes in flow dynamics and iceberg calving related, and how? What controls the calving rate and its variation over time – is ocean climate important? Key questions (2) Vexcel A.Gardner

19. Challenges NSERC IPY/PCSP Logistics mis- communication: dollar stretching Polar Bears

20. Funding NSERC –IPY SRO –RTI –Discovery Grant –Northern Research Supplement CFI ASRIP, OIT ArcticNet PCSP F. Cawkwell