2. SIMPSON’S PARADOX How does it happen? ? ? ? Pamela Leutwyler

3. A perfume company is testing two new scents: Citrus And Orange blossom

4. 28 single women volunteer to test these products

5. 15 are Eagles cheerleaders 13 are members of Granny’s bingo club

6. 13 women choose CITRUS 15 women choose ORANGE

7. 4 OF THE 5 CHEERLEADERS WHO USED CITRUS FOUND LOVE! 80% success rate 7 OF THE 10 CHEERLEADERS WHO USED ORANGE FOUND LOVE! 70% success rate CITRUS appears to be more effective for cheerleaders

8. 80% success rate 70% success rate 2 OF THE 8 GRANNIES WHO USED CITRUS FOUND LOVE! 1 OF THE 5 GRANNIES WHO USED ORANGE FOUND LOVE! CITRUS appears to be more effective for grannies 25% success rate 20% success rate

9. 80% success rate 70% success rate 25% success rate 20% success rate CITRUS is better for cheerleaders CITRUS is better for grannies

11. 6 of the 13 women who used Citrus found love. 46% 8 of the 15 women who used Orange found love. 53% Overall Orange has a higher success rate

12. How can it happen that CITRUS works better for cheerleaders and CITRUS works better for grannies While ORANGE works better overall??? Where are most of the grannies? Where are most of the cheerleaders?