1. LESSONS LEARNED; CANADA, THE ARCTIC AND SHIPBUILDING New Paradigms for Defence and Industrial Policy School of Policy Studies, Queen University,, February 27 2012 Rob Huebert Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca Centre for Military and Strategic Studies

2. Canada, the Arctic and Shipbuilding Canada will need substantial increases in its arctic capable Fleet Canada’s history is problematic Canada is examining new means of acquiring ships –Politically lead Process –Rationalization of process

3. The Problem The Arctic is a state of massive transformation –Climate Change –Resource Development – (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $98 barrel) –Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization How do we understand what is happening? What is the role Canada in this new Arctic security regime?

4. Oil and Gas Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Source: AMAP

5. New Technologies: Proposed Arctic LNG Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

6. Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

7. New Geopolitics of the North Russia –Renewed Assertiveness –Petrodollars/but growing economic shorfalls United States –Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act –International Role as remaining Superpower –Developing Economic instability Norway –Refocus on North –Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia Denmark –Issues with Greenland – social; energy –New Naval capabilities Iceland –Economic melt-down –Growing relationship with China Finland/Sweden –NATO – Loyal Arrow Canada –Re-examining its Arctic capabilities –Renewed Assertiveness

8. Russia Renewed Russian Strengths 1990’s Period of Reduction –AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning 2000’s Renewal 6 SSBN 995 Borey –1 built; 3 building 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney –1 built; 2 building Payment Challenges Build 6 subs and 1 carrier a year 2013 -Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin Yury Dolgoruky

9. United States US Arctic Forces Submarine Forces: US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class Cooperation with UK ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina - Missile Development Missile Defence – Ft. Greely USS Honolulu 2003HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

10. New Norwegian Frigates Fridtjof Nansen class 5 built in Spanish Yards Aegis system Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008 Source: RNoAF

11. Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard Source: Canadian American Strategic Review

12. Danish Vessels Thesis class Flyvefisken class

13. Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden Swedish FM - Submarines Mistral

14. China New Chinese Icebreaker -1 st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999 -2 nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003 -3 rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008 Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk Polar Research Institute of China

15. South Korea 1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

16. The History The voyage of the Polar Sea and its aftermath Clark’s 6 point arctic policy –Construction of polar 8 icebreaker –Construction of 10 to 12 Nuclear powered submarines

17. Failure of 1986 Policy Polar 8 Icebreaker –Politicalization of process –Provincial Shipyards Battle –Lack of political support –Impact of deficit/debt Nuclear Powered Submarines –End of Cold War –Confusion over purpose –Impact of deficit /debts

18. What is Canada now doing? New Military Operations since 2002 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels Nanisivik Refueling Facility Northern Watch Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg Canada Shipbuilding Policy Oct 2011

19. Canadian Navy in Northern Waters Post 2002

20. Resolute Bay Base Location Iqaluit Ft. Greely St. John’s

21. Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missionsBe capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missions Source: Canadian Navy

22. Diefenbaker

23. New Developments Shipbuilding Policy –Rational non-political Process –Long term durability Politically led Capital Project – AOPV –Decision was from Political Elites –Did Navy want the vessel? American Arctic Requirements –Good cooperation since 1986 –American need for icebreakers

24. Conclusion Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to the region Canada will need substantial maritime assets Current plan is promising