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Technology Forecasting
Technology Winners
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Technology Forecasting
The question that faces the long-range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is: What do we have to do today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow.
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Technology Forecasting: Why Do It ?
Surveillance of Total Environment Estimate Time Scale for Important Events Threats and Opportunities Continued Monitoring of Trends Reorientation of Company Policy Improve Operational Decision Making
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Technology Forecasting Definition
Foreseeable Specific Scientific Refinement Promises to Serve Some Function Quantitative Conclusions; Levels of Confidence; Given Time Frame Specific Level of Support Logical Analysis...Consistent Results
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Technology Forecasting
Business Environment Political, Technological, Industrial.. Needs Technology Forecasting Financial support New Product
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Technological Forecasting
Technique Classifications Exploratory (From past-present-future) Normative (From future) Paths of Technological Progress The “S” Curve (with an selected attribute) Human intellect Physical limit
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Possible paths of Progress
Physical limit Parameter of performance A B C Time
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Effect of Emergent New Technology
A B C Parameter of performance New Technology Time
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Technological Forecasting Desired Information
Likely Performance Levels with No New Stimuli Approach of Natural or Physical Limit Stimuli which May Change Support or Progress New Technologies/Crossover Points Performance Milestones
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Technological Winners Radical Innovations
Technological Potency or Importance Market Opportunity or Business Advantage
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The R&D Effort Portfolio
Technical Opportunity Selective Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Limited Support Selective Emphasis Heavy Emphasis Limited Support Selective Emphasis Limited Support Market Opportunity
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Technological Winners Determinants of Success
Inventive Merit Technical Potency Embodiment Merit Operational Merit Market Opportunity Market Merit
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Technological Winners Retrospective Examples
Transistor in Commercial Electronics Inventive Merit - Size, Weight, reliability Embodiment Merit - Portable radio Operational Merit - Low shipping costs Market Merit - New growth market
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Technological Winners “Prospective” Examples
Computerized Automobile Engine Inventive Merit Embodiment Merit Operational Merit Market Merit
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Technological Winners “Prospective” Examples
Computerized Automobile Engine Inventive Merit - Reduced pollution Embodiment Merit - Stable performance Operational Merit - Expansion of operation Market Merit - Via substitution
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Technological Winners Issues
Radical Vs. Evolutionary Innovation Embodiment/Operational (e.g., VCR) Forecasting
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Technology Forecasting Forecasting Techniques
Trend Extrapolation Precursor Trends - Curve Matching Technological Substitution Delphi Scenarios Relevance Trees Technology Monitoring
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