1. The curious place of famine in world population history 1. What is famine? 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check? 3. Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual? 4. How do modern famines differ from historical ones? 5. The future of famine vs. other health risks.

2. Bibliography on famine Dyson, Tim and Corma O Grada (eds.) Famine Demography (2002) Dyson, Tim and Corma O Grada (eds.) Famine Demography (2002) Maharatna, Arup. The Demography of Famines (1996). Maharatna, Arup. The Demography of Famines (1996). Livi Bacci, Massimo. Population and Nutrition (1991). Livi Bacci, Massimo. Population and Nutrition (1991). Walter, J. and R. Schofield (eds.) Famine, Disease and the Social Order in Early Modern Society (1989) Walter, J. and R. Schofield (eds.) Famine, Disease and the Social Order in Early Modern Society (1989) Arnold, D. Famine, Social Crisis and Historical Change (1988). Arnold, D. Famine, Social Crisis and Historical Change (1988). Vaughan, M. Story of an African Famine (1987). Vaughan, M. Story of an African Famine (1987). Mokyr, Joel. Why Ireland Starved (1985). Mokyr, Joel. Why Ireland Starved (1985). Appleby, A.B. Famine in Tudor and Stuart England (1978). Appleby, A.B. Famine in Tudor and Stuart England (1978).

3. 1 rabbit (1454): “a great hunger killed many of the people” Ancient “Mexico”

4. 1 rabbit (1454): “a great hunger killed many of the people” --Ancient Mexico (not a “paradise”!) Famines in 1446, and 1450-1455, caused great hardship, including widespread human sacrifice, a sharp rise in slavery, and extreme mortality. Famines in 1446, and 1450-1455, caused great hardship, including widespread human sacrifice, a sharp rise in slavery, and extreme mortality. 1454: 1454: “People died in the open, the youth had wrinkled skin like the elderly, and buzzards fed on human corpses.” “People died in the open, the youth had wrinkled skin like the elderly, and buzzards fed on human corpses.” Men “sold their families, their children one by one, for a bit of corn and two tamales, and for the wife, one tamale, and finished by selling themselves, leaving the province of Hetoquaro deserted.” Men “sold their families, their children one by one, for a bit of corn and two tamales, and for the wife, one tamale, and finished by selling themselves, leaving the province of Hetoquaro deserted.”

5. 1. What is famine? Classic, modern and customary definitions Classic definition: Classic definition: “a state of extreme hunger suffered by the population of a region as a result of the failure of the accustomed food supply” “a state of extreme hunger suffered by the population of a region as a result of the failure of the accustomed food supply” Modern definition (or a definition for modern times?): Modern definition (or a definition for modern times?): Amartya Sen (Noble prize for economics, 1998): famine is a question of food ownership, not supply—a question of entitlement not availability. Amartya Sen (Noble prize for economics, 1998): famine is a question of food ownership, not supply—a question of entitlement not availability. A failure of governance and distribution, not production? A failure of governance and distribution, not production?

6. What is famine? customary definition (Chad, 1990s) “We have suffered four major famines during my lifetime. “We have suffered four major famines during my lifetime. “The first was called Amzaytone, meaning ‘the time we sold our necklaces,’ in the 1950s. “The first was called Amzaytone, meaning ‘the time we sold our necklaces,’ in the 1950s. “The second, about ten years later was El Harigue, ‘the year when everything burnt,’ when our crops shrivelled in the heat of the sun. “The second, about ten years later was El Harigue, ‘the year when everything burnt,’ when our crops shrivelled in the heat of the sun. “The third, in 1982, was Alchouil, ‘the year of the sack,’ when traders came with sacks of millet for us to buy. “The third, in 1982, was Alchouil, ‘the year of the sack,’ when traders came with sacks of millet for us to buy. “Finally, in 1985, the big famine came upon us. We called this Laitche, meaning ‘the year when everyone fled from the area.’” “Finally, in 1985, the big famine came upon us. We called this Laitche, meaning ‘the year when everyone fled from the area.’”

7. Major famines in modern times China, Great Leap Forward, 1958-61: 14-30 million excess deaths China, Great Leap Forward, 1958-61: 14-30 million excess deaths Bengal (India), 1943: 3 million (many due to malaria) Bengal (India), 1943: 3 million (many due to malaria) Sahel, 1970-74: ¼ million Sahel, 1970-74: ¼ million Bangladesh, 1974-5: 1.5 million Bangladesh, 1974-5: 1.5 million Ireland, 1846-50: 1-1.5 million Ireland, 1846-50: 1-1.5 million

8. 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?—or not?? Famine tends to be weather-related or politically induced, rather than due to population out- stripping food supply Famine tends to be weather-related or politically induced, rather than due to population out- stripping food supply Famine in the past was limited in its geographical expanse (small regions instead of large ones) Famine in the past was limited in its geographical expanse (small regions instead of large ones) Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growth Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growth Consider impacts on: mortality, fertility, migration, family, and population structure (next slide). Consider impacts on: mortality, fertility, migration, family, and population structure (next slide).

9. 2. Famine: Malthus’s “perfect” positive check?—not!! Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growth Famine is not an effective regulator of demographic growth Mortality may not be high ( 20%), and tends to be concentrated among the young and old Mortality may not be high ( 20%), and tends to be concentrated among the young and old Fertility: lost births are quickly replaced Fertility: lost births are quickly replaced Migration: an effective response—does not constitute demographic loss Migration: an effective response—does not constitute demographic loss Historically, families are quickly reconstituted—a marriage boom follows; cultural taboos relaxed Historically, families are quickly reconstituted—a marriage boom follows; cultural taboos relaxed Age structure effects  productive age groups survive best Age structure effects  productive age groups survive best

10. China: Famine induced “birth dearth” (1958-61) followed by baby boomlet (1962-3): ~30 million lost births

11. China’s great famine 1958-1961 etched into the population pyramid (1982) 15-30 million excess deaths

12. 3. Why was the Irish potato famine so unusual? The greatest in 19 th century Europe The greatest in 19 th century Europe Catastrophic reduction in food supply Catastrophic reduction in food supply Substantial, sustained shift in demography: mortality, fertility, population decline (8.2m 1841 to 4.5 in 1901), emigration (1.5 million in a decade), marriage (mean age rose 4 years; never marrying increased to 20%). Substantial, sustained shift in demography: mortality, fertility, population decline (8.2m 1841 to 4.5 in 1901), emigration (1.5 million in a decade), marriage (mean age rose 4 years; never marrying increased to 20%). Malthusian positive check? Malthusian positive check? Not precipitated by man (war, governance), but by a fungus Not precipitated by man (war, governance), but by a fungus Underlying demography--early marriage, high growth rate— and mono-crop dependence on potato led to precarious balance Underlying demography--early marriage, high growth rate— and mono-crop dependence on potato led to precarious balance Poverty was the big killer—few died of starvation (10%); most died of DDG (dysentery, diarrhea, and gastroenteritis) or fever (infectious disease) Poverty was the big killer—few died of starvation (10%); most died of DDG (dysentery, diarrhea, and gastroenteritis) or fever (infectious disease)

13. 4. How do modern famines differ from historical ones? Demographic impacts: Demographic impacts: Excess mortality rates: much greater in the past, than today (infections are controlled; epidemics prevented) Excess mortality rates: much greater in the past, than today (infections are controlled; epidemics prevented) Birth effects: more pronounced in the past Birth effects: more pronounced in the past Migration: less widespread in the past Migration: less widespread in the past Marriage: quick reconstruction of families, slowed Marriage: quick reconstruction of families, slowed Causes, nature or man? Causes, nature or man? Then: real dearth with inadequate transportation Then: real dearth with inadequate transportation Now: induced dearth due to war, mal-goverance Now: induced dearth due to war, mal-goverance

14. 5. The future of famine vs. other health risks. Widely predicted famines of 20 th century did not materialize Widely predicted famines of 20 th century did not materialize The biggest 20 th century famines were due to collectivization efforts: Ukraine 1932-3, China 1958- 61, Vietnam 1956, Ethiopia 1980. The biggest 20 th century famines were due to collectivization efforts: Ukraine 1932-3, China 1958- 61, Vietnam 1956, Ethiopia 1980. As population growth slows, future famines are unlikely—except due to war and failure of international assistance As population growth slows, future famines are unlikely—except due to war and failure of international assistance “Famine” captures the imagination, but water- borne diseases cause many, many more deaths “Famine” captures the imagination, but water- borne diseases cause many, many more deaths

15. End