2. Models of Famine, Early Warning Systems and Policy Responses Stephen Devereux Institute of Development Studies (UK) Summer School on “Food Security and Famine Prevention in Developing Countries” Civita Castellana, Italy ~ 13 July 2006

3. Why do famines happen?  Climatic Theories  Demographic Theories  Sen’s ‘Entitlement Approach’  ‘Complex Emergencies’ Famine early warning and response What is ‘famine’? New directions in famine thinking

4. “A famine is a food shortage leading to widespread death by starvation.” But ~ famines have occurred:  with no food shortage [Bangladesh 1974];  where death was caused by disease, not starvation [Sudan 1984];  with no “excess mortality” [Sahel 1972-74]. WHAT IS FAMINE?

5. “famine is a socio-economic process which causes the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable, marginal and least powerful groups in a community, to a point where they can no longer, as a group, maintain a sustainable livelihood.” “famine is a socio-economic process which causes the accelerated destitution of the most vulnerable, marginal and least powerful groups in a community, to a point where they can no longer, as a group, maintain a sustainable livelihood.” ~ Peter Walker (1989) A good “outsider” definition:

6. WHY DO FAMINES HAPPEN?

7. Climate Theories Theories: “Famine belts” “Drought causes famine” “Climate change”. Negative impacts: Crop production Assets (e.g. livestock) Food prices Community assistance. Critique: Partial explanation “Inability to cope” is the problem Vulnerability needs to be addressed.

8. Demographic Theories (1)Population increases indefinitely, but land is strictly limited; (2)The demand for food will eventually exceed potential food production; (3)Famine acts as a “natural check” on population growth. Critique: Malthus: (1) Malthus failed to foresee:  the agricultural revolution;  the transport revolution;  the industrial revolution;  the demographic transition. (2) Famine is not a “Malthusian leveller”.

9. Demographic Impact of China's 1958-62 Famine 550 650 750 850 950 1050 Year 195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982 Population (millions)

10. Entitlement Approach Four categories of entitlement:

11. “Entitlement failure” Subsis- tence Labour TradeLabour Production Trade Production Pre-DroughtDrought

12. “Entitlement failure” Subsis- tence LabourTransfers TradeLabour Production Trade Production Pre-DroughtDrought

13. Strengths: Sen’s critique: More critiques:  Demand-side emphasis  Disaggregates food availability  Analysis of “boom famines”.  “Fuzzy” entitlements  Legal rights only  “Choosing to starve”?  Legalistic terminology  Apolitical and ahistorical  Dependency entitlements?  Famine mortality.

14. Complex Emergencies War disrupts food production Food stores are destroyed or appropriated Trade and aid flows are disrupted Local economies are undermined Community coping strategies are undermined Government services are interrupted Refugees are created.

15. Famine as a sequence of “entitlement failures” PRODUCTION ENTITLEMENTS Drought / El Niño / Conflict Drought / El Niño / Conflict Population (Malthusianism) Population (Malthusianism) MARKET ‑ BASED ENTITLEMENTS Market failure/ collapse Market failure/ collapse Exchange entitlement failure Exchange entitlement failure TRANSFER ENTITLEMENTS Informal safety nets failure Informal safety nets failure Food aid failure Food aid failure

16.  “Anti-famine “social contracts” [India]  Accountability and the “right to food”  Donor – Government relations [Malawi]  “Pre-modern” and “Post-modern” famine [Iraq]  “New Variant Famine” [HIV/AIDS]. NEW DIRECTIONS IN FAMINE THINKING

17. Democracy and famine prevention INDIAAFRICA Limited civil conflictConflict and insecurity Free pressConstrained press Vigorous civil societyWeak civil society Low donor dependenceHigh donor dependence “Anti-famine contract”No anti-famine contract No More FaminesPersistent Famines Established democracyEmerging democracies

18. FAMINE EARLY WARNING Famine Intensity Scale: 1 = Food insecurity 1 = Food insecurity 2 = Food crisis 2 = Food crisis 3 = Famine 3 = Famine 4 = Severe famine 4 = Severe famine 5 = Extreme famine 5 = Extreme famine Early Warning Indicators: Food Availability = Harvests; food stocks Food Availability = Harvests; food stocks Access to Food = Market prices; Dietary Diversity Access to Food = Market prices; Dietary Diversity = Malnutrition; CMR Outcome Indicators = Malnutrition; CMR Social Indicators = Coping Strategies Index. Social Indicators = Coping Strategies Index.

19. Application of “famine scales” in Somalia

20. Building accountability from above: First level: National Government National government Affected population

21. Building accountability from above: Second level: Government + Donors World Food Programme National government Affected population Second level First level Main pathway to accountability

22. Building accountability from above: Alternate route: “Food Security Ombudsperson” World Food Programme National government Affected population Food security ombudsperson Second level First level Alternative pathway to accountability Main pathway to accountability

23. Building accountability from above: Alternate route: Ombudsperson + “Right to Food” World Food Programme UN Secretariat: “Right to Food” National government UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Affected population Food security ombudsperson Second level First level Alternative pathway to accountability Main pathway to accountability

24. CONCLUSION: THE “NEW FAMINES”  Past famines were understood as “acts of God” (natural disasters, natural population growth);  Most contemporary famines are “acts of man” (they are caused by human action or inaction);  Even when production and market failures occur, famines are not inevitable until transfers also fail;  “New famines” are more political because they are almost always predictable and preventable.