1. The Labour Market to 2010: New Issues? John Fitz Gerald The Economic and Social Research Institute, www.esri.ie

2. Introduction n The Driving Forces n Economic Background The clockwork mouse runs downThe clockwork mouse runs down n External environment US economic imbalancesUS economic imbalances Globalisation is good for youGlobalisation is good for you EnlargementEnlargement n Domestic forces for change Demographic ChangeDemographic Change n The Labour Force of the Future

3. Average Growth in GNP

4. Relative GNP

5. Economic Dependency

6. External Environment n US economic imbalances Budget and balance of paymentsBudget and balance of payments How can they be “cured”?How can they be “cured”? Implications for the dollarImplications for the dollar Implications for FDIImplications for FDI n If dollar falls – implications for EU

7. Globalisation n EU integration key to success Access to marketsAccess to markets Single MarketSingle Market n Future – Enlargement and world trade Enlargement an opportunityEnlargement an opportunity n Exploiting the global opportunities Demand for skilled labourDemand for skilled labour Services sector – key to growthServices sector – key to growth Shifting supply – flexibility the keyShifting supply – flexibility the key

8. Domestic Factors n Factors affecting labour supply FertilityFertility ParticipationParticipation MigrationMigration EducationEducation

9. Labour Supply Growth

10. Birth Rate

11. Population Structure, 2003

12. Population Structure, 2013

13. Female Labour Force Participation

15. The “Homing Pigeons” n Huge Emigration in 1950s Perception of a failed economyPerception of a failed economy Leave, Never to ReturnLeave, Never to Return Brain Drain in 1980sBrain Drain in 1980s n Today: “Homing Pigeons” Enhances productivityEnhances productivity Increase productive potential of economyIncrease productive potential of economy Good for Foreign Direct InvestmentGood for Foreign Direct Investment

16. Educational Attainment, 2002

17. Participation in Education, 15-19

18. Supply of Labour

19. Returns to Education

20. Labour Demand n Foreign Direct Investment n Competitiveness

21. Skilled Labour Supply WL W1W1W1W1 D1LD1LD1LD1L S1LS1LS1LS1L L1L1L1L1 S2LS2LS2LS2L L2L2L2L2 D2LD2LD2LD2L

22. Unskilled Labour S1LS1LS1LS1L S2LS2LS2LS2L U L2L2L2L2 DLDLDLDL L1L1L1L1 S=W L W D2LD2LD2LD2L W2W2W2W2

23. Competitive Markets Matter n Costs to consumers n Costs to business n Competitiveness council Business as consumersBusiness as consumers n Labour market pass through of costs Taxes – well knownTaxes – well known Consumer prices also pass throughConsumer prices also pass through Domestic services prices matterDomestic services prices matter

24. Labour Force 2014 n A world where couples both work n Older 30-34 age group dominates30-34 age group dominates Affects work patternsAffects work patterns Affects consumptionAffects consumption n Female labour force participation High - related to educationHigh - related to education n Immigration Brings skillsBrings skills

25. Skilled and Unskilled Labour n Supply increasing rapidly n Unskilled supply falling but demand? n Skilled labour: female proportion rising n Implications for employers Need to attract and hold female labourNeed to attract and hold female labour Needs of work force in their 30sNeeds of work force in their 30s n Proportion of skilled labour force who are parents of young children rising

26. Working Patterns n Accommodating working couples n 30-34 Cohort the largest Age at first birth?Age at first birth? n Children bring change in lifestyle Working pattern, pattern of consumptionWorking pattern, pattern of consumption n Cost of children? Time out of workforce penalisedTime out of workforce penalised Delay children?Delay children? n Reaching a modus vivendi

27. Implications n Flexible working May enhance skilled labour supplyMay enhance skilled labour supply “Cost-effective” for parents?“Cost-effective” for parents? n Potential problems Penalty for time out of labour forcePenalty for time out of labour force Does this reflect lower productivity or prejudice?Does this reflect lower productivity or prejudice? n Compulsory paternity leave?