1. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2011 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Irish RMBS: Performance Update Elton Eakins Director Structured Finance Ratings April 26, 2012

2. 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. 40%+ of Irish mortgages back RMBS, though most is retained Breakdown of outstanding Irish mortgage balances Source: Irish Banking Federation, Bloomberg, Standard & Poor's

3. 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P-rated issuance covers over €30 billion in collateral Outstanding collateral balance* * S&P-rated transactions

4. 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Deeply depressed lending reflected in RMBS amortization Irish mortgage lending vs. RMBS paydown index* * Annualized rate of pool amortization; source: European Mortgage Federation, Standard & Poor's

5. 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Tender offers are generally supplanting originator calls Source: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg; * Percentage of outstanding balance at time of tender offer in 2011 Tender offers –Ulster Bank Ireland bought Celtic 9-12 bonds in May 2011 –Bank of Ireland tendered for Kildare in November 2011 Calls –Celtic/Kildare will not be called on 2012 step-up dates –Future decisions taken on "economic basis" Tender offer acceptance rate* (%)

6. 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Delinquencies have risen more than six-fold in 4 years… Irish RMBS delinquency index

7. 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. …though performance varies significantly by platform Irish RMBS 90+ day delinquencies, selected transactions

8. 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Relative rise in Irish unemployment is similar to Spain's… Unemployment rates Source: Eurostat

9. 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. …and house prices have fallen ~50% from their peak Cumulative house price growth and decline Source: Permanent TSB/ESRI, CSO

10. 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Labor and housing supply have followed similar paths Housing completions vs. net migration Source: Department of the Environment and Local Government, CSO

11. 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Price-to-income affordability now back to long-term average Average house price-to-income ratio Source: OECD

12. 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Mounting delinquencies but still very few repossessions Irish vs. U.K. mortgage arrears and repossessions * England and Wales only; order granted excludes suspended orders; ** Including voluntary surrender of property Source: Central Bank of Ireland, Council of Mortgage Lenders, Ministry of Justice

13. 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. New repossession rate, quarterly Repossession rate still very low, but stocks are building Repossession stocks Source: Central Bank of Ireland, Council of Mortgage Lenders

14. 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Loan modifications or forbearance have become widespread ~75,000 rescheduled loans as of end-2011; ~12% by balance Inconsistent disclosure in regular RMBS reporting Restructured mortgage loans Source: Irish Financial Regulator

15. 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Draft Personal Insolvency Bill allows write-down of secured debt Proposed Bill reduces bankruptcy period from 12 years to 3 years Introduces non-judicial Personal Insolvency Arrangements (PIAs) for secured debt In a Personal Insolvency Arrangement… –Payments may be deferred –Loan principal may be written down to the property value –"Clawback" provision if property price recovers –Borrower may generally stay in the property –Maximum period of 6 years Voluntary for lenders Final version of Bill originally due by end April

16. 16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. RMBS downgrades gathered pace in 2011 for several reasons Irish RMBS rating actions* * S&P-rated transactions; ** Including 6 defaults

17. 17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Many ratings are now constrained by counterparty or country risks Limiting risk factor in Irish RMBS ratings Source: Standard & Poor's BBAIB AA+Sovereign BB-IL&P AA+Sovereign BB-IL&P ARBS A+RBS Rating cap

18. 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Takeaways No sign of delinquency growth slowing –Unemployment has leveled off for now… –…but house prices still trending sharply lower Forbearance is helping keep borrowers in their homes –Means RMBS servicer reports require careful interpretation Upcoming Personal Insolvency Bill may result in quicker loss recognition –Although details, uptake, and operation in RMBS remain to be seen Rating pressures now go beyond collateral performance –Counterparty risk –Country risk

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