1. Class Mobility in Modern China Jing YANG University of Oxford RC28: Social Inequality and Mobility in the Process of Social Transformation 24-27 May 2007

2. 2 I. I. Research in China II. II. Data source III. III. Absolute rates of class mobility IV. IV. Trends in social fluidity V. V. Multi-matrix model of social fluidity in China VI. VI. Conclusion & Further considerations

3. 3 I. Research in Social Stratification in China during the Market Transition Period 1. Debate on Market Transition Theory (Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996, A.G. Walder, and D. J. Treiman) 2. Chinese Researchers: 1) 1988 Survey (Research on Social Structure in Contemporary China: 6 cities) Cheng and Dai (1995): Trends of Absolute & Relative mobility Cheung (1997): Application of the core model of social fluidity 2) 2001 Survey (The changing social structure in contemporary China: national probability sampling) 1. 9-class Occupational Structure: CASS02 2. Rise of New Middle Class

4. 4 My Research Goal: What is the class structure and the patterns of intergenerational mobility in China during the market transitional period? Multi-staged national probability sample Multi-staged national probability sample In-depth interview: 14 parts In-depth interview: 14 parts Urban: 3087; Rural: 3003 (Age: 20-69) Urban: 3087; Rural: 3003 (Age: 20-69) Occupational coding: Occupational coding: CSCO95  9-class CASS02 ISCO-68  5-class CASMIN Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996 II. Life History and Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996 A.G. Walder, and D. J. Treiman

5. 5 II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

6. 6 Recoding Procedure: CSOC95  9-class CASS02  4-class CASS02

7. 7 II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996 Recoding Procedure: ISCO-68  egp10  CASMIN7 (2 empty classes)  CASMIN5

8. 8 II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

9. 9

10. 10 II. Life History & Social Change in Contemporary China: 1996

11. 11 III. Absolute Mobility Rates TMR: Total Mobility Rate (TU+TD) TU: Total Upward Mobility Rate TD: Total Downward Mobility Rate TIR: Total Immobility Rate (1-TMR)

12. 12 III. Absolute Mobility Rates

13. 13 III. Absolute Mobility Rates 1996 Survey Cohorts: Age at the time of inquiry 1. 1927-48: 48-69 2. 1949-65: 31-47 3. 1966-77: 19-30

14. 14 III. Absolute Mobility Rates TMR: Total Mobility Rate (TU+TD) TU: Total Upward Mobility Rate TD: Total Downward Mobility Rate TIR: Total Immobility Rate (1-TMR)

15. 15 Main Findings 1.Declining but still important agricultural sector 2. Slowly increasing total upward mobility rate 3. Increasing total downward mobility rate 4. Increasing mobility rates between agricultural & manual working class; manual & nonmanual class 5. Growing boundary/declining mobility rates between middle class/peasants III. Absolute Mobility Rates

16. 16 III. Absolute Mobility Rates

17. 17 III. Absolute Mobility Rates

18. 18 III. Absolute Mobility Rates

19. 19 III. Absolute Mobility Rates

20. 20 IV-1. Relative Mobility Rates: application of CnSF, CmSF, and Unidiff model

21. 21 1. 1. CnSF (Male & Female) The association between class of origin and destination remains the same cross three cohorts for men and women. 2. CmSF The association between class of origin and destination has been found the same for men and women, net of gender discrepancies in the allocation of class of origins and destinations. 3. Unidiff There is no strong evidence on the weakening ties between class of origin and destination either cross three cohorts or between men and women, based on 1996 survey data IV-1. Relative Mobility Rates: application of CnSF, CmSF, and Unidiff model

22. 22 1. Original Core Model of Social Fluidity based on 7-class CASMIN 1) 1) 3 Divisions of occupational structure i) I+II; ii) III, IVa+b+c, V+VI; iii) VIIb+c; 2) 2) 4 effects: Hierarchical (HI); Inheritance (IN); Sector (SE); Affinity (AF) 3) 3) 8 Matrices: HI1, HI2; IN1, IN2, IN3; SE; AF1 AF2 IV-2 Multi-matrix Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

23. 23 IV-2. Multi-matrix Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China 2. 2. Modified Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China based on 5- class CASMIN 1) 1) Dropped matrices: IN3, AF1 2) 2) Combined matrices: IN1 & IN2  IN 3) 3) 3 Divisions of occupational structure i) I+II; ii) III, V+VI, VIIa; iii) VIIb 4) 4) 4 effects and 5 matrices

24. 24 IV-2. Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

25. 25 IV-2. Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

26. 26 IV-2. Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

27. 27 IV-2. Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

28. 28 Summary: 1. 1996 Survey: Male vs. Female 1) 1) Stronger hierarchical effects on male: HI1+HI2 2) 2) Stronger inheritance effect on male: IN 3) 3) Comparatively weaker sector effect on male: SE 4) 4) Similar Affinity Effect on male and female: AF2 2. 1996 Survey vs. 1988 Survey (for both male & female) 1) 1)Weaker hierarchical effect in 1996: HI1 (HI2 predicted) 2) 2)Weaker inheritance effect in 1996: IN 3) 3)Stronger sector effects in 1996: SE IV-2 Model of Social Fluidity in Modern China

29. 29 V. Conclusion & Further Considerations Conclusion 1. 1. Increasing total absolute mobility & growing class boundaries at the extreme of the class structure 2. 2. Constant social fluidity 3. 3. Modernized patterns of social fluidity Further Considerations 1. 1. Updated survey & Comparison 2. 2. Regional differences 3. 3. Validity & reliability of the Chinese class schema