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Published byLenard Goodman Modified over 9 years ago
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Economic Outlook November 2010
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Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education
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Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?
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Sources of Economic Growth
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Inventory Buildup
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Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
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Percent of Long-term Unemployed
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Employment Weaker than Income
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Federal Tax Withheld Employment Based
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Household Debt Is Still High
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Housing
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History of Home Prices
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Housing Affordability Index
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Home Prices
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Mortgage Rate
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Double-dip in Housing?
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Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
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Distress Distressed Home Sales
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Homeowner Vacancy Rate
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Inventory of Existing Homes for Resale
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State & Local Governments
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S&L Budget Gaps
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State and Local Government Payroll
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State and Local Government Drag
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Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition
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Budget Deficits % of GDP
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Tax Increase? Current2011 Top Income Tax Rate35%41% Capital Gains Rate1520 Top Dividend Rate1539.6 Estate Tax055
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Tax-cut Extension on Economic Growth
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Quantitative Easing
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Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries
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OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap
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Low Inflation 1960s to 2000 Price Stability Prosperity
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Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
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Quantitative Easing Language L.T.Interest Rate Buy Bonds
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Why QE? Short Rate Zero Lower Bond Yields Weaker Dollar
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Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds
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Currency War?
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Why May Not Work? Problem: Tax & Reg. Currency War Protectionism
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Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate
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U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero
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Blue Chip Economic Forecasts
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Double-dip Yes/No ?
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No Double-dip? Tax Cuts QE2 Low Base
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InflationorDeflation
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Major Inflation and Deflation
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Tip Yields Real Inflation
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NegatNegativive Negative TIP Yields
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DDDD Deflation Around the Corner?
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Lower Inflation Expectations
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Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy
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No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes TaxesFees
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Election
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Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan
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90 Days after Mid-term (1922-2006) 8.5 percent
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Mid-term Elections and S&P 500
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Stocks and Election Cycle (1871-2005) FirstSecondThirdFourth 3.0%-2.7%10.1%7.5%
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Who Controls? Unified GovernmentDivided Government 6.10% 11.10%
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Key Issues Tax & Budget EnergyTrade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration
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Compromise or Not?
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Video Clip
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Best Combination Dem. White House Rep. Congress
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Gridlock Is Good for Budgets
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GlobalEconomy
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Economic Growth
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Rebalancing Global Trade
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Internal Rebalancing Domestic Demand Budgets Finance/Credit
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External Rebalancing Deficit Countries Increase Exports Surplus Countries Increase Consumption
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Government Debt % of GDP
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Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%
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Over 100% Stunt Growth
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Sovereign Borrowing Needs
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Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain
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Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.
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China’s Economy
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Private Credit Growth
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Housing Starts in China
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Soft Landing in China?
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China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast
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Chinese Chinese Currency Undervalued
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Weaker Dollar
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VenturaCounty
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VC Employment
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VC Unemployment Rate
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VC Education and Health Jobs
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VC Other Service Jobs
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VC Retail Trade jobs
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Information Jobs
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VC Financial Jobs
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VC Leisure-Hospitality Jobs
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Demographics
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LostDecade?
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DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)
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TIPS and 10-yr Treasury Yield Curves
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Initial Jobless Claims
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House Prices and Vacancy Rate
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Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
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Housing Drag on Economic Growth
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