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Economic Outlook November 2010. Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Outlook November 2010. Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Outlook November 2010

2

3 Recession Impact Fewer Moving Delay in Marriage One Car Office at Home More Education

4 Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?

5 Sources of Economic Growth

6 Inventory Buildup

7 Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

8

9 Percent of Long-term Unemployed

10 Employment Weaker than Income

11 Federal Tax Withheld Employment Based

12 Household Debt Is Still High

13

14 Housing

15 History of Home Prices

16 Housing Affordability Index

17 Home Prices

18 Mortgage Rate

19 Double-dip in Housing?

20

21 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

22 Distress Distressed Home Sales

23 Homeowner Vacancy Rate

24 Inventory of Existing Homes for Resale

25

26 State & Local Governments

27 S&L Budget Gaps

28 State and Local Government Payroll

29 State and Local Government Drag

30 Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition

31 Budget Deficits % of GDP

32

33 Tax Increase? Current2011 Top Income Tax Rate35%41% Capital Gains Rate1520 Top Dividend Rate1539.6 Estate Tax055

34 Tax-cut Extension on Economic Growth

35 Quantitative Easing

36 Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

37 OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap

38 Low Inflation 1960s to 2000 Price Stability Prosperity

39 Unemployment Rate and NAIRU

40 Quantitative Easing Language L.T.Interest Rate Buy Bonds

41 Why QE? Short Rate Zero Lower Bond Yields Weaker Dollar

42 Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds

43 Currency War?

44 Why May Not Work? Problem: Tax & Reg. Currency War Protectionism

45 Taylor’s Rule Actual Federal Funds Rate

46 U.S. Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast Zero

47 Blue Chip Economic Forecasts

48 Double-dip Yes/No ?

49 No Double-dip? Tax Cuts QE2 Low Base

50 InflationorDeflation

51 Major Inflation and Deflation

52 Tip Yields Real Inflation

53 NegatNegativive Negative TIP Yields

54 DDDD Deflation Around the Corner?

55 Lower Inflation Expectations

56 Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy

57 No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes TaxesFees

58 Election

59 Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan

60 90 Days after Mid-term (1922-2006) 8.5 percent

61 Mid-term Elections and S&P 500

62 Stocks and Election Cycle (1871-2005) FirstSecondThirdFourth 3.0%-2.7%10.1%7.5%

63 Who Controls? Unified GovernmentDivided Government 6.10% 11.10%

64 Key Issues Tax & Budget EnergyTrade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration

65 Compromise or Not?

66 Video Clip

67 Best Combination Dem. White House Rep. Congress

68 Gridlock Is Good for Budgets

69 GlobalEconomy

70 Economic Growth

71

72

73

74

75 Rebalancing Global Trade

76 Internal Rebalancing Domestic Demand Budgets Finance/Credit

77 External Rebalancing Deficit Countries Increase Exports Surplus Countries Increase Consumption

78 Government Debt % of GDP

79 Debt to GDP Over 90%: 1.7% Vs. Below 30%: 3.5%

80 Over 100% Stunt Growth

81 Sovereign Borrowing Needs

82 Outlook Bought Time Vs. Deficits Remain

83 Asia:V-Shaped Trade Rebound Inventory Building Capital Inflows Strong Domestic Demand Weak Financial Sys.

84 China’s Economy

85 Private Credit Growth

86 Housing Starts in China

87 Soft Landing in China?

88

89 China’s Economic Growth (% Change Year over Year) Forecast

90 Chinese Chinese Currency Undervalued

91 Weaker Dollar

92 VenturaCounty

93 VC Employment

94 VC Unemployment Rate

95 VC Education and Health Jobs

96 VC Other Service Jobs

97 VC Retail Trade jobs

98 Information Jobs

99 VC Financial Jobs

100 VC Leisure-Hospitality Jobs

101 Demographics

102

103 LostDecade?

104 DrSohn.com (not Dr.Sohn.com)

105

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107

108

109 TIPS and 10-yr Treasury Yield Curves

110

111 Initial Jobless Claims

112 House Prices and Vacancy Rate

113 Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

114 Housing Drag on Economic Growth


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