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2015 Minnesota Economic Outlook January 6, 2015
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minneapolisfed.org
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Agenda Minnesota Economy Outlook Surveys Models Sector Analysis Agriculture Manufacturing Home building
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9 th District Cleveland
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Comparing 2014 with last year’s forecast Employment growth stronger than forecast Unemployment rate lower than forecast Personal income growth slightly slower than forecast Home building somewhat weaker than forecast
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Employment increased in most sectors Nonfarm employment, percent change from a year earlier, November 2014
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Minnesota’s unemployment rate below prerecession levels Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Oil and gasoline prices plunge at the end of 2014 Source: Energy Information Administration
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Forecast models: Solid employment growth and continued decrease in the unemployment rate Business optimism near record high Manufacturers expect growth Home building flat Minnesota economy: Signs of optimism for 2015
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Percent of respondents selecting somewhat optimistic or very optimistic
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Minnesota employment expected to grow by 1.9 percent
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Twin Cities business leaders expect increased employment at their companies *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.
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Minnesota employment outlook positive *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.
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Minnesota unemployment rate forecast at 3.3 percent by end of 2015
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Overall Minnesota business leaders anticipate moderate increases in wages and salaries
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Minnesota business leaders foresee overall moderate price increases *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.
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Minnesota personal income growth expected to increase by 4.6 percent
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Crop prices dropped Average farm prices 2011/20122012/2013 Estimated 2013/2014 Projected 2014/2015 (Current $ per bushel) Corn6.226.894.463.20-3.80 Soybean12.514.413.009.00-11.00 Wheat7.247.776.875.80-6.20 U.S. Department of Agriculture, estimates as of December 2014
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Cattle prices solid Average farm prices 20122013 Estimated 2014Projected 2015 (Current $ per cwt) All Milk18.5220.0524.05-24.1518.45-19.25 Steers122.82125.89155.29160-172 Hogs60.8864.0576.2263-68 U.S. Department of Agriculture, estimates as of December 2014
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Minnesota manufacturing survey indicates faster growth expected in 2015 *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.
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Minnesota business leaders expect slower growth in home building *Index number above 50 indicates expansion. Index number below 50 indicates contraction.
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Minnesota economy: Signs of optimism for 2015 Forecast models: Solid employment growth and continued decrease in the unemployment rate Business optimism at record high Manufacturers expect growth Home building flat
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Questions?
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