1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: How did we get here and what do we do now? Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Noon Rotary Club, Ames, IA 28, July 2008

2. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

3. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Comparison of natural variability of climate and human induced climate change  Projections of future climate change  Impact of climate change on “regions suitable for rain-fed agriculture”, including the US Midwest  Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation strategy Except where noted as personal views or from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

5. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2007 380 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

8. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

10. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

14. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

15. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

16. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

17. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

18. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

19. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

20. Natural cycles

21. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

22. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Natural

23. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

24. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving

25. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

26. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

27. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

29. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

30. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

31. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

32. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature *Estimated from IPCC reports

33. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation * Estimated from IPCC reports

34. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other * Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

35. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

36. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

37. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/ Or just Google Eugene Takle