1. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment February 3, 2009

2. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 All Commercial Files Can Be Found on line at: http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/supplycurves/default.htm

3. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 Commercial Sector Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings –40 to 50 million SF of new stock per year Over 350,000 buildings Over 350,000 buildings Plus “Process” Plus “Process” –Streetlights, parking, sewage & water treatment, communications, information processing, icemakers …

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5. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Commercial Sector Floor Area

6. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Results to Date: Achievable Savings About 1400 MWa by 2030 FOLLOWING RESEULTS ARE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT! Waiting for new data on baseline for exiting stock Waiting for new data on baseline for exiting stock Expect modest revisions to floor area and fuel cost Expect modest revisions to floor area and fuel cost Measure data refinements on costs and applicability for some of the measures Measure data refinements on costs and applicability for some of the measures A few measures to add A few measures to add Placeholder estimates to update Placeholder estimates to update Error checking Error checking

7. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Measure Bundles Integrated Building Design Integrated Building Design Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior Lighting Controls Interior ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes Premium HVAC Equipment Premium HVAC Equipment Windows Windows Package Roof Top Optimization & Repair Package Roof Top Optimization & Repair Variable Speed Chiller Variable Speed Chiller Controls Commission Complex HVAC Controls Commission Complex HVAC Evaporative Assist Cooling Evaporative Assist Cooling Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC Demand Control Ventilation Demand Control Ventilation Duct Sealing and Repair Duct Sealing and Repair Roof Insulation Roof Insulation Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Plug Load Sensor Premium Fume Hood Pre-Rinse Spray Wash Exit Signs Network PC Power Management Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Clothes Washers Cooking Equipment Office Equipment Computer Servers and IT Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights LED Advertising Signs Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply DCV Restaurant Hood DCV Parking Garage

8. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2030

9. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 Building-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

10. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 Equipment-Related Measures Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

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13. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Lighting

14. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Why Lighting is Important Lighting is big: About 40% of electric use Lighting is big: About 40% of electric use Technological Change Technological Change –New baseline conditions –New measures are available Proven track record Proven track record –Programs, codes & standards capture savings

15. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 What’s Included: Lighting Lighting Power Density Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior Lighting Controls Interior Exit Signs Exit Signs Exterior Building Lighting Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights LED Traffic Lights Signage Signage

16. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Increased achievable potential relative to 5th Plan Increased achievable potential relative to 5th Plan –Over 500 MWa in 6th versus about 350 MWa in 5th –New measures added exceed accomplishments –Lower achievable LPDs –More ways to turn lights off More in Natural Replacement than Retrofit More in Natural Replacement than Retrofit Somewhat higher cost Somewhat higher cost Not all of this is cost-effective Not all of this is cost-effective Low TRC cost Low TRC cost Preliminary Results for Interior Lighting

17. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 Notable Changes from 5 th plan T12 Linear Fluorescent are dying out T12 Linear Fluorescent are dying out –None in new buildings, phasing out in existing stock High Performance T8 (HPT8) is FL measure of choice High Performance T8 (HPT8) is FL measure of choice Replace 1990s T8s with HPT8 (75 to 95 lumens/Watt) Replace 1990s T8s with HPT8 (75 to 95 lumens/Watt) Programs should promote HPT8 ONLY Programs should promote HPT8 ONLY Baseline for incandescent is Halogen (EISA2007) Baseline for incandescent is Halogen (EISA2007) Baseline for Metal Halide is Pulse Start (EISA2007) Baseline for Metal Halide is Pulse Start (EISA2007) –Savings deltas are smaller Lot of CFLs in new buildings Lot of CFLs in new buildings Linear Fluorescent is replacing Metal Halide Linear Fluorescent is replacing Metal Halide –But MH to Linear FL still a good measure Added Efficient Fluorescent Fixtures as NEW MEASURE Added Efficient Fluorescent Fixtures as NEW MEASURE

18. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 Interior Lighting

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20. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 20 How We Estimate Lighting Savings Lighting Energy: Watts x Hours = kWh Lighting Savings: Watts Saved x Hours = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction or Watts x Hours Saved = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction More Efficient Lamps & Ballasts More Efficient Fixtures Control Measures: Occupancy sensors, timers, day lighting

21. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 21 How We Estimate Cost of Savings First Cost = Equipment + Labor + Markup + Disposal Periodic Costs = Lamp replacement costs or savings Annual Fuel Costs = Cost of gas to replace heat from lights PROCOST COSTS SAVINGS SHAPE OF SAVINGS kWh $ / kWh

22. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 22 Then Supply Curves kWh/SF x (SF Applicable) x (Achievable) = Total Potential Simple …

23. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 23 But Tedious 10 proxy lighting measures, 18 building types, 3 fuel types, 3 applications = 1620 lighting measures 10 proxy lighting measures, 18 building types, 3 fuel types, 3 applications = 1620 lighting measures Each with a dozen different costs & savings inputs Each with a dozen different costs & savings inputs

24. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 24 Reducing Lighting Power Density (LPD in Watts per SF) Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008 Target 0.75 Remove from Potential Estimate Potential Savings for These Code

25. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 25 Setting the Target LPD

26. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 26 Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008

27. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 27 Develop Measures that Achieve these reductions in LPD

28. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 28 Lamp & Measures Distribution for New Large Offices Lamp TypeFraction T12 Fluorescent0.1 T8 Fluorescent70.3 T5/HPT8 Fluorescent8.4 Compact Fluorescent9.9 Incandescent9.2 MISC0.1 HID-Ceramic Metal Halide0.1 HID-Metal Halide2.0 Sum100 T12 to HPT8 T8 to HPT8 Inc-R to LED T8-2 to T8HP-2 & Efficient Fixture Inc to CMH Repeat for 18 Building Types for 3 Applications Savings from the measures applied add up to the LPD savings target. Savings and costs are weighted by contribution to LPD reduction.

29. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 29 Some Key Measures New for 6 th Plan

30. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 30 Key Input Summary for LPD Bundle

31. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 31 Generic Achievability Ramps Rates Used in Commercial

32. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 32 Lighting Control Measures New measure for 6 th Plan New measure for 6 th Plan A minor revolution in technology & applications A minor revolution in technology & applications –Lower cost, higher reliability and more options Warehouse & Open Office occupancy sensors Warehouse & Open Office occupancy sensors Classrooms Classrooms Dimming during retail store stocking periods Dimming during retail store stocking periods Bi-level stairwell & hallway Bi-level stairwell & hallway Restrooms, break rooms Restrooms, break rooms These measures were not in the 5 th Plan

33. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 33 Key Inputs for Lighting Control

34. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 34 Daylighting Results modestly lower than 5 th Plan Results modestly lower than 5 th Plan Over half the savings in skylight daylighting Over half the savings in skylight daylighting High penetration in new Big Box Stores High penetration in new Big Box Stores –All new Wal-Mart stores Savings in side daylighting Savings in side daylighting –Still working on control problems Lower Baseline LDPs reduce savings Lower Baseline LDPs reduce savings

35. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 35 Top Daylighting: Key Inputs

36. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 36 Outdoor Lighting

37. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 37 Advances in LED Streetlighting Since July 2008 RTF Six Months Ago Oakland, CA Oakland, CA Replace 121W HPS Replace 121W HPS 78W LED 78W LED $610 per Fixture $610 per Fixture Improved Visibility Improved Visibility $14 per Watt Saved $14 per Watt Saved Today Oakland, CA Replace 121 HPS 58W LED $400 per Fixture Improved Visibility $7 per Watt Saved NICE PROGRESS

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39. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 39 Key Inputs for Streetlights

40. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 40 Key Inputs for Parking Lighting

41. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 41 Key Inputs for Exterior Building Lighting

42. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 42 HVAC

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44. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 44 Controls Commissioning Complex Key Inputs

45. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 45 Package Rooftop Optimization & Repair 6P Savings are 33% of 5P Savings

46. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 46 Package Rooftop Optimization & Repair Key Inputs

47. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 47 Demand Control Ventilation

48. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 48 Demand Control Ventilation Key Inputs

49. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 49 Demand Control Ventilation DVC Cooling Savings DVC Cooling Savings – New:.001 to.08 kWh/sf – Retro:.003 to.145 kWh/sf DCV Heat Savings DCV Heat Savings –New: 0.2 to 4.3 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf –Retro: 0.3 to 5.4 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf RTU Fleet Strategy Ventilation Savings RTU Fleet Strategy Ventilation Savings –New & Retro:.54 kWh/sf

50. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 50 Key Inputs for Variable Speed Chiller

51. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 51 What’s Included: Process Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply Municipal Water Supply Network PC Power Management Network PC Power Management Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Clothes Washers Commercial Clothes Washers Cooking Equipment Cooking Equipment Office Equipment Office Equipment Computer Servers and IT Computer Servers and IT Demand Control Ventilation Restaurant Hood Demand Control Ventilation Restaurant Hood Demand Control Ventilation Parking Garage Demand Control Ventilation Parking Garage Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Plug Load Sensor Plug Load Sensor Premium Fume Hood Premium Fume Hood Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Grocery Refrigeration Bundle

52. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 52 Process Measures

53. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 53 Process Measures Supply Curve

54. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 54 End