1. Plan Bleu pour l’environnement et le développement en Méditerranée Antoine Lafitte – ICZM Programme Officer – Plan Bleu Sophia -Antipolis, near Nice, FRANCE Project title Integration of climatic variability and change into national strategies to implement the ICZM Protocol in the Mediterranean. Sibenik, 08th April 2013 Presentation of a participatory method taking into account CVC issues on coastal zone.

2. pour l’environnement et le développement en Méditerranée Plan Bleu PRESENTATION OF “IMAGINE” METHOD 1

3. Basic principles of " Imagine " Indicators Participatory process Systemic analysis Scenario making ‘Imagine’  Systemic analysis: which allows cross-cutting vision of territorial issues, highlight interaction between various components…  Territorial prospective: which allows building shared images of the future by participatory process at local level (local participatory scenarios)  Sustainability Indicators to follow-up the main trends  Participation of local stakeholders

4. "Imagine" has been tested, validated and implemented in five CAMPs : Malta (2000-2002); Lebanon (2002-2003); Algiers (2003-2005); Slovenia (2005); Cyprus (2006-2007).

5. The 5-step "Imagine" process Workshop 1. Understanding the context. Describe the situation (diagnostic phase) Workshop 2. Indicators, thresholds & band of equilibrium Workshop 4. Model & Explore: Meta scenario making Workshop 5 Do & suggest: actions plan & follow-up. Workshop 3. Mini-scenarios for each indicator

6. pour l’environnement et le développement en Méditerranée Plan Bleu PRESENTATION OF “CLIMAGINE” METHOD 2

7. The 3-step "Climagine" process Workshop 1 - Understand the context: territorial diagnosis, - Draw “Rich Pictures” to identify priority issues on the coastal zone, - Prioritise the issues. Workshop 2 - Select a final core set of indicators related to issues, - Use matrix to rank issues and indicators, - Define the indicator’s band of equilibrium, - Define the scenario assumptions. Workshop 3 - Explore future through scenarios, - Present and discuss the results, - Elaborate of recommendations and setting the priorities for a local ICZM action plan.

8. Workshop 1: Understanding the context in drawing Rich Picture to identify priority issues. The key question is : What are the main drivers and pressures in the coastal area ? This exercise of schematization allows to:  Break the ice by a friendly exercise: Do not take yourself too serious… Give a playful frame to difficult tasks…  Describe the system and all the components in interaction to identify their interrelations (the system’s complexity) In producing the “Rich Pictures” you:  Consider your project context in terms of Components, Structures and Processes  Identify some main issues which need to be taken into account

9. Workshop 2: define and find a consensus on the indicators, coming from « Rich Pictures » Main Issues Indicator s

10. Some easy hits : Best available indicators

11. A matrix to rank issues & indicators

12. Sustainability thresholds and Band of equilibrium The band of equilibrium, where the level of achievement is agreed to be sustainable Upper limit (acceptable) Lower limit (acceptable) “To determine the sustainability of an indicator, a minimal and maximum value (lower limit and upper limit) is given to each one. Between those values, criteria for adhering to sustainable development are assessed. This is what is called the Band of Equilibrium.”

13. Graphic of the sustainability of the coastal zone of Algiers in 2003 (Algiers CAMP) 13

14. Sustainability and indicators: band of equilibrium : Example: Total fertility rate (Number of children per woman in fertility period) Four values are defined for each indicator:  A = unsustainable by deficit  B = sustainable at the lower limit  C = sustainable at the higher limit  D = unsustainable by excess A = minimum D = maximum B C Band of equilibrium 0 1.9 2.3 8 2.1 generation replacement

15. Warning – Kind in mind Normalisation of indicators using the band of equilibrium (and the min-max values of the indicator) has to be used for the radar graphics. The sense or direction of the indicators from unsustainable value per deficit to unsustainable value per excess has to be set (from the center of the diagram to the other side). As far as concerned the selected indicators, it is necessary to get the available time series.

16. Workshop 3: Scenarios drawing: Initial status of the system, current situation and Evolution. 2- Define and rank assumptions of scenarios (use matrix: assumptions/variables). 3- Choose the time horizon (it might be the year 2030, medium term.) Source : MAAPRAT – SSP – Centre d’étude et de prospective What should be the future of the system ? 1- Knowledge of the system (coming from “rich pictures”), for that identify: Stakeholders Focal issues: threats & pressures Process/development Conflicts, challenges, stakes, Opportunities: drivers of change 4- Think about a business as usual and alternative scenarios. Retrospective to show current evolution and the major trends Projection into the future by answering questions “If… then…” or “What do we do if…?” 5- Draft storylines for each scenarios.

17. Feedbacks from previous experiences (CAMP) 1.“CLImagine” constitutes a mediation tool towards settling conflict between sectors, as well as to remove barriers 2.“ CLImagine ” allows to be aware of (and help resolve) conflicts over use. 3. Workshops provided an uncommon opportunity to discuss and debate common problems and projects. 4. It is a friendly format which is instrumental in “breaking the ice” between participants (e.g. “rich pictures”). 5. Public participation is encouraged and allows the sharing of concerns within inter-sectoral processes. 6. Using “CLImagine” provides attractive information about complex situations.

18. pour l’environnement et le développement en Méditerranée Plan Bleu THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !