1. Windows of opportunity? Police reform in Scotland in comparative perspective Professor Nick Fyfe Scottish Institute for Policing Research & University of Dundee SIPR-GMU Symposium October 2014

2. 2013 1975

3. Converging trajectories? Recent history of mergers of police districts/forces… Denmark: 72 to 54 to 12; Norway: 54 to 27; Finland: 90 to 24; Sweden: 118 to 21 to 1 Netherlands: 25 to 1;

4. A national force: centralizing or decentralizing*? Scotland 8 regional forces to a national police service Legislation: 2 levels (national and 32 local authorities); Implementation: 5 levels (national, 3 areas, 14 divisions, 32 local areas, 353 wards) Netherlands 25 regional forces to a national police service; Legislation: 3 levels (national, 10 units, 408 municipalities); Implementation: 5 levels (national, 10 units, 43 districts, 168 basic teams, 408 municipalities). (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

5. Governance and accountability* Scotland Scottish Ministers Scottish Police Authority Chief Constable (Local Council) Netherlands Dutch Ministers Chief Constable The ‘Local Triangle’ (local mayor/municipal council, public prosecutor and police commander) (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

6. Local Policing* Scotland Legal requirement for ‘local policing’ at level of 32 local authority areas; Designated local commander and production of annual local policing plan; ‘Policing principles’ provide normative vision; Replacement of local tripartite governance; Netherlands Legal requirement for one community officers for every 5000 inhabitants; Retention of ‘the local triangle’ of local mayor, public prosecutor and police commander. (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

7. Why? Making sense of policy change Key elements…. Institutions; Socio-economic change; Choices; Networks and coalitions; Ideas; Key theories…. Punctuated Equilibrium Model; Policy Advocacy Coalition Framework Policy Streams and Windows

8. Policy streams - combine ‘problems’, ‘policies’ and ‘politics’; Windows of opportunity – linked to crises; ‘Policy entrepreneurs’ – invest time, energy and reputation in new policies. Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies (Kingdon, 2003)

9. Framing the problem: agenda setting processes* Scotland Global threats from organised crime and terrorism; Concern at local fragmentation of police resources; Public spending crisis; Consideration of alternatives (8, 3 or 1?) Netherlands Global threats from organised crime and terrorism; Concern at local fragmentation of police resources; ICT crisis Decentralization no longer seen as positive. (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

10. ‘Windows of opportunity’*: linking ‘problems’, ‘policies’,‘politics’ and ‘policy entrepreneurs’ Scotland New (majority SNP) Government; Policing and business case for a national force; Public support from Chief Constable of largest force. Presence of ‘policy entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service Netherlands New Government; Reconfiguration of political authority over policing ; Continuing ICT concerns Presence of ‘policy entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

11. UK level: different and diverging trajectories of police reform England & WalesScotland Political logic of change Challenging public sector bureaucracies Economic efficiency and ‘state building’ AccountabilityElectoral/ democratic Bureaucratic/ technocratic Distribution of powerTowards localismTowards centralism Police MissionCrime-fightingCommunity well- being Policy influenceUnited StatesNorthern Europe

12. And finally some data: Public perceptions and knowledge of policing arrangements in Scotland 20122013 2014 % % There is a single national police force 64958 There are 8 separate regional police forces 461310 There are 32 local police forces 732 Don't know/not sure 423530 (Refusal) *** Sample size 1,2291,4971,501

13. A national force and confidence in local policing 201220132014 %% Much more confident332 A little more confident797 Will make no difference445249 A little less confident262224 Much less confident161114 (Don't know)433 (Refusal)*-* Sample size1,2291,4971,501

14. How are the police doing in your local area? 201220132014 %% Very good job786 Good job616062 Neither good nor bad job222324 Bad job664 Very bad job121 (Don't know)323 (Refusal)*-- Sample size1,2291,4971,501