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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW Period ending 02 October 2011
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Grocery Performance Summary Despite prices increasing (2.3%), the overall market remains subdued with value sales falling by 0.2% compared with this time last year as shoppers are trading down to cheaper products, buying products on promotion. Private Label has remained consistent at around 34.5% of the grocery market since the start of the year. The choice of grocery products has more than doubled since 2001 to over 27,500 products.
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 3 -4.5%+0.7% Total Grocery market value The market has lost 0.2% in the latest 12 weeks, compared to 1.2% growth in sales for the same period last year +1.2%-0.2% 52 weeks12 weeks
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 52 we packs +0.5%-0.3% 12 we packs +2.1%-0.2% HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING (PACKS)? Pack sales are in decline over the full year and in the latest 12 weeks also
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E 4 we €000’s +2.0 -0.3%
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 6 Market value, inflation and consumer sentiment Inflation in grocery is running at +2.3% but has no positive effect on value as consumer sentiment dips further ESRI Index of consumer sentiment, 3 mth MAV Grocery Value % Change and Inflation
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 7 Market value, inflation and household spend Each household is spending 0.25% less than they did last year Grocery Value % Change, HH Spend % Change and Inflation
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 % Markets in Inflation vs Deflation Inflation has slowed slightly vs the same time last year, but the majority of markets still see inflation 8
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Kantar Worldpanel Ireland, 12 w/e 26 Dec 2010 What consumers do: Ireland Consumer coping strategies How are we adjusting spend when faced with inflation? Promotional purchasing and trading down product tiers drives consumer spend down but volume continues to increase following a period of adjustment 12 weekly rolling periods
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Shopper behaviour drivers The number of shopping trips per household has been increasing since the start of 2011 but spend continues to be eroded with average basket now worth 2.3% less than last year 12 week ending periods
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 11 Shopper missions The importance of full trolley trips has not changed. Instead, shoppers have switched some of their Destination trips to Baskets as Multiples continue to overperform vs. the convenience channel Total Grocery +2 million 16% -1.4pt 62% +1.4pt 22% NC % Grocery Trips % Grocery Spend -€4.5 million 4% -0.4pt 38% +0.4pt 58% NC €21.88-2.3% €5.58 -3% €13.26-3.4% €58.27-2.4% € per trip
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 CHANGE IN VALUE SALES – TOTAL GROCERY SECTORS Food sectors growth is flat this period 12 % Value Change
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 TOTAL FOOD YEARLY AND QUARTERLY SALES 52 we €000’s -4.0% 1.1% 12 we €000’s +1.6%0.5%
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 15 Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand Shoppers trading to standard from good and down from Super premium also Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in salesShare of sales 12 w/e 02 Oct 2011
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Private label still remains an important part of a consumers grocery shop
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Private Label Value Share of Grocery 12w PL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PL value share is holding above 34% of market value, and has not dropped back after the new year pickup
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Grocery Packs Growth by PL Tier Budget & Standard Private label products see an increase in Pack sales Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in sales Share of sales
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Consumers are taking advantage of promotions
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR A more consistent level of promotion since the new year 20 % Packs Sold on Deal in Total Grocery,
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 52w % PACKS SOLD ON DEAL – PROMO TYPE Pickup in MultiBuy packs this year, but less Money off and Extra Free promotions
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Shoppers also have more choice
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 We now have double the choice we had in 2001 No. of grocery products Latest 12 weeks to 7 th August 2011
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 75 27,558 Items available to us We actually select Latest 12 weeks to 7 th August 2011
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Round pricing helps to catch the consumers eye
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 Round Euro Price Points – helping shoppers budget As shoppers look for value, Round Pricing becomes more popular 2009 8% of Branded Sales 2010 15% of Branded Sales 2011 19% of Branded Sales
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 PRICE MATTERS ‘ROUND €’ prices have more than doubled since 09 Price Points – helping shoppers manage
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ROI data to 02 ND OCT 2011 UK Overview
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MARKET TRENDS SUMMARY MARKET TRENDS –Gap between inflation and market growth narrows to 0.5% –Inflation steps up to 5.7% –Market growth now up to 5.2%, from 4.6% last period –Versus last year, trading down to cheaper products becomes more important. PRICE & PROMOTIONS –Full price sales continue to drive Market growth, –Nearly all retailers increase promotional discounts year on year.
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© Kantar Worldpanel 30 GROWTH AND INFLATION Customers continue to trade down… Grocery (RST) 12we 2 Oct 2011 (KWP P11)
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© Kantar Worldpanel TRADING-UP AND TRADING-DOWN STRATEGIES …mainly through Promotions & Product Choice Grocery (RST) 12we 2 Oct 2011 (KWP P11)
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© Kantar Worldpanel Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand Shoppers trading down to Budget and Standard Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in salesShare of sales 12 W/e 02 Oct 11
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© Kantar Worldpanel Grocery Packs Growth by PL Tier In terms of Private label, all tiers perform well as shoppers trade down from branded goods Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in salesShare of sales 12 W/e 02 Oct 11
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