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Craigmillar Partners L.P. Investment Strategy 4 th Quarter, 2003 This presentation is only to be used in conjunction with the Private Placement Memorandum.

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Presentation on theme: "Craigmillar Partners L.P. Investment Strategy 4 th Quarter, 2003 This presentation is only to be used in conjunction with the Private Placement Memorandum."— Presentation transcript:

1 Craigmillar Partners L.P. Investment Strategy 4 th Quarter, 2003 This presentation is only to be used in conjunction with the Private Placement Memorandum

2 2 Partnership Objectives Outperform the S&P 500 over business cycle Provide a low correlated portfolio to the S&P as a hedge against market volatility Responsive Reporting to Partners Exceed Industry Service Standards Reasonable Growth in Assets Craigmillar Partners L.P.

3 3 Investment Philosophy Active Asset/Geographic/Sector Allocation adds value while controlling risk Stock Selection based on Fundamental Analysis Identifies Strong Companies, Primarily in Small Cap. Growth Market Sentiment creates Buy/Sell Opportunities Craigmillar Partners L.P.

4 4 Craigmillar Investment Process Stock Ideas Sector Allocation Analysis Relative Asset Allocation Analysis Relative Geographic Allocation Analysis Craigmillar Partners L.P.

5 5 Decision-Making Bottom-up Stock Selection - Look For strong underlying growth potential and counter market sentiment bias Analysis Focuses on: Revenue/Earnings Growth, P/E, P/CF & P/B. Business Strategy Management Team Competition Craigmillar Investment Process

6 6 Decision-Making MARKET SENTIMENT: –money flows –institutional buying/selling –insider activity –street research Craigmillar Investment Process

7 7 Security Selection Astropower Inc.* Craigmillar Investment Process Morningstar *Please Click View/Comments in the Toolbar Astropower: The stock was bought as the company entered a growth phase selling, mostly overseas, an advanced photovoltaic panel in 1999. The stock tripled in two months so it was sold as news of its success was highly reported. Then the stock was bought back when it reached fundamental value and sold again after another triple in price. Astropower: The stock was bought as the company entered a growth phase selling, mostly overseas, an advanced photovoltaic panel in 1999. The stock tripled in two months so it was sold as news of its success was highly reported. Then the stock was bought back when it reached fundamental value and sold again after another triple in price. Bought 1/14/00 Sold 3/8/00Sold 9/20/00 Bought 5/23/00 Bought 11/7/02 Sold (1/2) 5/5/03 Bought (1/2) 6/10/03 Sold 7/24/03

8 8 Security Selection Corning Inc.* Craigmillar Investment Process Morningstar *Please Click View/Comments in the Toolbar Corning: This company had been identified in the early nineties as having potential in the pollution control business and was also under negative publicity with high profile law suits. In May 2000, the stock reached a value level that was fundamentally unsupportable relative to treasury yields and was sold. The stock was recently bought back as its stock fundamentals improved significantly and during a time of external strain on the overall market. Corning: This company had been identified in the early nineties as having potential in the pollution control business and was also under negative publicity with high profile law suits. In May 2000, the stock reached a value level that was fundamentally unsupportable relative to treasury yields and was sold. The stock was recently bought back as its stock fundamentals improved significantly and during a time of external strain on the overall market. Bought 7/27/95 Sold 5/23/00 Sold 20% 7/08/03 Doubled position 12/04/02 Bought 11/12/01

9 Security Selection Lynx Therapeutics Craigmillar Investment Process Bought 4/02 Bought 9/02 Bought 4/03 Sold (1/2/) 9/03

10 10 Decision-Making Research Sectors: Review of current economics and business cycles Determine Sector Targets: Portfolio biased to most promising sectors and industries Review: Ongoing review ensures portfolio is dynamic Craigmillar Investment Process

11 11 Sector Allocation Craigmillar (Equity only)S&P 500 Financial Healthcare Industrial Consumer Goods Hardware Consumer Services Energy Software Telecomunication Business Services Media Utilities/other Cash 12%13%20% 151615 1611 779 10 669 666 115 3 444 34 Morningstar classification 10/08/03 Craigmillar Investment Process 4 22 4 14153

12 12 Decision-Making Research Geographic Value: Look at the relative attractiveness of US equities vs. foreign markets. Craigmillar Investment Process

13 13 Country Selection Japan ETF Craigmillar Investment Process Nasdaq.com *Please Click View/Comments in the Toolbar Established position Japan ETF: In May, 2001 the liquidity in global markets relative to global equity prices suggested a higher equity allocation. Japan’s equity market was receiving negative press and was selling near all time lows for the last ten years. We have been too early in this market but still believe in the fundamental relative value in Japan. Japan ETF: In May, 2001 the liquidity in global markets relative to global equity prices suggested a higher equity allocation. Japan’s equity market was receiving negative press and was selling near all time lows for the last ten years. We have been too early in this market but still believe in the fundamental relative value in Japan. Bought 5/15/01

14 14 Decision-Making Research Asset Value: We consider relative attractiveness of current 10-year treasury yields vs. forecasted earnings growth of equities. Allocation to Treasury issues only. Craigmillar Investment Process 50%

15 15 Security Selection 30-Year U.S. Treasury Craigmillar Investment Process Economy.com *Please Click View/Comments in the Toolbar 30-Year Treasury: In early 2000, the S&P 500 reached a level where reasonable earnings expectations were unfavorable compared to 30-year US Treasury yields. 30% percent of the portfolio was moved at that time out of equities into 10-Year and 30- Year maturities. Recently the 30-Year US Treasury dropped below 5% during a time of better stock fundamentals and favourable fixed- income sentiment so it was sold. 30-Year Treasury: In early 2000, the S&P 500 reached a level where reasonable earnings expectations were unfavorable compared to 30-year US Treasury yields. 30% percent of the portfolio was moved at that time out of equities into 10-Year and 30- Year maturities. Recently the 30-Year US Treasury dropped below 5% during a time of better stock fundamentals and favourable fixed- income sentiment so it was sold. Bought 30-year bond March 17, 2000 Sold 30-year bond Nov 2, 2001

16 16 Investment Characteristics Allocation to Fixed Income and Non-US Stocks when attractive relative to US stocks Low Turnover Diversified Holdings Biased to Growth Sector /Industry Concentration Small Capitalization Bias Sharpe Ratio = 1.86 for five years Craigmillar Portfolio

17 17 Performance* 9/30/03 (3 & 5 Years Annualized) Craigmillar Portfolio

18 18 Performance Disclosures September 30, 2003 Craigmillar Portfolio * Craigmillar LLC is a limited liability company registered in the State of Delaware. The investment performance represents the performance of Craigmillar LLC, acting as General Partner to Craigmillar Partners L.P. (Fund). The investment performance is audited through December 2002. Performance prior to the Fund’s opening on January 2, 2002 represents a non fee-paying account and, including the Fund, is 100% of all assets managed with the approach outlined in the Craigmillar Partners LP Private Placement Memorandum. The monthly values, redemptions & contributions and monthly performance are audited beginning January 1997. Mah & Associates, LLP, a certified public accountant, has performed the audit for the annual periods 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000 & 2001. Year 2002 was audited by Arthur F. Bell, Jr. & Associates, LLC a certified public accountant. Annualized returns are not audited. Returns are time-weighted, total returns based on trade date accounting. Returns are net of withholding tax, custodial fees, transaction fees, management fees and reflects re-investment of dividends and interest on an accrual basis as well as realized and unrealized gains and/or losses. Returns are calculated using monthly valuations and monthly cash flows with period returns geometrically linked. Actual client account results will vary depending upon their subscription date. For 2002, the returns are net of an expense ratio of 2.42%. For prior years the expense ratio was effectively 0.05%. The performance benchmark is the Standard and Poors 500 index. This index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market-value weighted index (stock price times number of shares outstanding), with each stock's weight in the Index proportionate to its market value. The "500" is one of the most widely used benchmarks of U.S. equity performance. The index is calculated in US$s on a total return basis, which includes re- investment of gross dividends. Specific sectors may be over/under-weighted in comparison to the S&P 500 index based upon the view of Craigmillar LLC. The index does not take into account charges, fees and other expenses. The manager universe data is from a third party industry-standard published data bank covering over 1000 equity managers. Craigmillar makes no representation of the accuracy of third party information. Past investment returns are no guarantee of future investment returns or trends.

19 19 Summary Let us help you achieve superior investment returns relative to the US equity market. Bob Preston


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