1. The Carolina Covenant ® Presented to: Projects Promoting Equity in Urban and Higher Education The Center for Educational Outreach The National Center for Institutional Diversity The University of Michigan March 19, 2010 Shirley A. Ort Associate Provost and Director of Scholarships & Student Aid Promise & Platform for Student Success

2. The Covenant in Context Population Shifts in North Carolina  North Carolina has one of the nation’s fastest-growing populations  From about 9.3 million today, population projected to reach 12.2 million by 2030, making N.C. the 7th most populous state  Much of the growth will occur among less affluent populations.  North Carolina currently ranks 11th (ties with Georgia) among all states in the percentage of its population living below the federal poverty level (14.3%). Source: Mabe, Alan. (September 2005). The Demographic, Economic, and educational Context for the University of North Carolina: 2006-2011 Long Range Plan. The University of North Carolina General Administration. Retrieved March 12, 2010. http://intranet.northcarolina.edu/docs/aa/planning/longplan/LRP_2004-2009_Supl_Trends_Affecting_NC_Higher_Ed_(III).pdf http://intranet.northcarolina.edu/docs/aa/planning/longplan/LRP_2004-2009_Supl_Trends_Affecting_NC_Higher_Ed_(III).pdf

3. The Covenant in Context Demographic Shifts in North Carolina North Carolina population growth by race, ethnicity, and nativity 1990-2005 Source: Johnson, James. (September 2005). North Carolina’s Higher Education Demographic Challengers. Kenan-Flagler Business School, UNC-Chapel Hill. Retrieved March 12, 2010. http://www.northcarolina.edu/nctomorrow/Johnson_-_Demographics_Brief-Final1.pdf http://www.northcarolina.edu/nctomorrow/Johnson_-_Demographics_Brief-Final1.pdf

4. The Carolina Covenant...  Carolina is – and will remain – accessible and affordable for academically prepared students from low-income backgrounds  Created in 2003, implemented in Fall 2004, it will endure – a promise to future generations.  Nearly 2,300 Covenant Scholars have benefited since the start of the program in Fall 2004 (1,800 currently enrolled)... Our promise to current & future students

5. How the Covenant Works  “Need blind” admission to the University  Covenant Scholars named based upon program eligibility and low-income status (200% federal poverty level or below)  Median family income of Covenant Scholars: $26,026  Scholars’ financial “packages” composed of grants, scholarships, and a Work Study job (i.e., “no loans”) for up to 9 semesters  Research demonstrates that large grants, when combined with a part-time job and limited borrowing, positively influence the academic success of low-income students (Jacqueline King, Crucial Choices, 2003)

6. Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Number of New Covenant Scholars 224350417398410537 Average High School GPA 4.214.254.194.264.304.31 Average SAT Scores 120912231198120212061230 State of Origin: North Carolina 87%89%84%87%84% North Carolina Counties Represented 687472777478 Gender Female 69%63%61%63%60%61% Male 31%37%39%37%40%39% Students of Color 63%60%63%61% 62% First Generation 55%52%57%53%55%57% [*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at 150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard. Characteristics of Covenant Scholars *

7. Changes in Covenant Population  Initial 2004 cohort (N=224): All were first-year students with family incomes under 150% of poverty level  Additions to 2005 – 2009 Cohorts: –Family income 151- 200% of poverty level Additional 100 scholars per year; jumped to 139 in 2009 –Transfer students Started with 26 in 2005; grown to 92 in 2009 Close to 20% of total cohort Broadened Eligibility

8. Number of New Covenant Scholars N = 53783% First-Year 17% Transfer First-Year Covenant Scholars are similar to their peers in terms of residency, gender, and high school GPA. But they differ in other ways. Covenant (11%) Other Needy (27%) No Need (62%) Average SAT Scores 123012841324 Students of Color 62%40%28% First Generation 57%24%8% Median parental income $26,026$53,199$100,000+ Profile of Covenant Scholars, Fall 2009

9. Support for Covenant Scholars  Financial Aid  University Embrace  Programming and Mentoring “More than money”

10. Financial Aid to Scholars, 2009-10 *Loans taken at Scholar’s own initiative Grants$32,974,390 Loans*$1,747,656 Work Study$689,752 Federal$10,768,162 State$10,132,694 Institutional / Private$14,510,942 Financial Aid by TypeFinancial Aid by Source Total Aid | $35,411,798

11. Programming and Mentoring  Orientation (for Scholars and parents)  Faculty/staff and peer mentors  Special programming and opportunities  Learning skills workshops (time management, note taking, studying for math, writing skills, preparing for exams, etc.)  Business etiquette, dining skills, public speaking  Pre-med seminars  Financial literacy  Tickets to performing arts events  Receptions and celebration events  Academic tracking, “interventions” & learning contracts

12. Community Embrace  Comprehensive infrastructure of support services and special programming  Some of our many Covenant Partners  Faculty and Administration – Mentoring and financial support  Admissions and University Relations – Outreach and promotion  College of Arts and Sciences – Advising and Academic Services  Diversity and Multicultural Affairs – Outreach programs  Student Affairs – Orientation, Career Services, Counseling  Carolina Performing Arts – Vouchers for artistic events  Development Office – Fundraising (currently $11 million)  Institutional Research – Data and program evaluation  The Medical School – Seminars and mentoring  The Coach!

13. Assessing Covenant Scholar Progress  Approach to evaluating the success of Covenant Scholars is based upon prior research findings: National Studies: Students from low-income families do not persist or graduate at the same rates as their classmates (Edward St. John, 2008; Cliff Adelman, 2007). Carolina’s 2004 Retention Study: Socio-economic factors (family income, parent education, etc.) were significant predictors of retention and graduation, even after controlling for entering academic preparation.  Goal: To determine if the Covenant award helps close the gap in degree attainment between low- income students and other students.

14. Indicators of Student Success  Academic Achievement  Retention Rates  Graduation Rates

15.  Compared the success of first cohort of Covenant Scholars in 2004 to that of a matched group of students from the 2003 entering class who would have been eligible for the Covenant, had it existed.  Also compared performance of Covenant Scholars to their classmates with less need and those with no need. 2003 Control Group N = 3,511 Covenant-Eligible (224) Other Needy (967) No Need (2,320) 2004 Cohort N = 3,589 Covenant Recipients (224) Other Needy (1,035) No Need (2,331) Evaluation Design

16. [*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at 150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard. 2004 Cohort Group Comparisons * CovenantOther NeedyNo Need Number2241,0352,330 Mean High School GPA4.214.264.31 Mean SAT120912571307 In-State Resident87%80%82% Gender: Female69%61%56% Male31%39%44% Students of Color63%38%18% First Generation55%25%6%

17. Academic Achievement  Grade Point Average: –Average GPA for 2004 Covenant Scholars at graduation was within 2/10ths of a point of the average for all students.  Academic Eligibility: –Number of 2004 Covenant Scholars who became academically ineligible was considerably lower (17%) than the 2003 Control Group.

18. Retention Rate Comparisons  By year four, the entering class of 2004 Covenant Scholars had persisted at a considerably higher rate than the Covenant students in the 2003 Control Group.  The 2004 Covenant Scholars closed much of the persistence gap observed between the low income group and others in the 2003 Control Group. Group Enrolled in Year 4 2003 Control Group2004 Cohort Percentage Point Improvement Covenant 84.3%89.6%5.3% Other Needy 87.6%88.2%0.6% No Need 90.5%91.6%1.1% All Students 89.3%90.5%1.2% Year 4 percentage adjusted for 3-year graduates.

20. Graduation Rates  Increases in Carolina’s overall graduation rates within 8 and 9 semesters have been greatest among financially needy students.  While their graduation rates are still somewhat below those of non-needy students, the gap has been reduced considerably.  Carolina Covenant Scholars improved more than did any other group. General Trends

21. Graduation Rates Group Graduated within 8 Semesters 2003 Control Group2004 Cohort Percentage Point Improvement Covenant 56.7%61.9%5.2% Other Needy 71.8%71.2%-0.6% No Need 77.0%78.9%1.9% All Students 74.3%75.6%1.3% Group Graduated within 9 Semesters 2003 Control Group2004 Cohort Percentage Point Improvement Covenant69.6%72.7%3.1% Other Needy78.3%77.4%-0.9% No Need83.9%84.7%0.8% All Students81.5%81.9%0.4% Among Comparison Groups

22. Graduation Rates Improvement in Percentage Graduated: 2004 Cohort vs. 2003 Control Group

23. Graduation Rates CohortN Graduated Within 4 YrsWithin 5 Yrs Within 6 Yrs N%N%N% 2003*22412756.7%17075.9%173 77.2% 200422213862.2%17177.0%. 200532621465.6%.. * Control group as of Late 2009

24. 2005 Covenant Cohort  Greatest gains were seen among men.  Note in particular the significant gains among both Black and Caucasian men.  Women remained relatively stable, generally performing somewhat higher than men. Graduation Rates

25. -4.8% +19.8% +11.8% +33.3%

26. -0.7% +21.2% -1.9% +18.4%

27. Conclusion & Discussion Pinpointing the Covenant’s Impact  Preliminary indications point toward significant improvement in the academic success of Carolina Covenant Scholars.  Financial support clearly matters, but the impact goes beyond money.  Which support programs have the greatest effect?  What accounts for the sizable increase in graduation rates amongmen?

28. Summer School Contract Initiative  Developed in response to observations that academically ineligible Covenant students receiving grants to attend summer school to regain good standing had a lower “cure” rate than predicted.  Summers of 2008 and 2009: Changed policy; ineligible Covenant Scholars attending summer school were given loans that could be converted to grants if they signed a learning contract and fulfilled its conditions.  Analysis conducted by RTI compared success rates to 2006 and 2007 summer school attendees

29. Outcomes By Contract Status

30. Among students coded as academic ineligibility-pending who attended summer school, by signed contract status and Carolina Covenant status: UNC summer school 2006 through 2009 † Pre-contract * Signed contract Restored Academic Eligibility Rates