1. Guiding seed transfer with species occurrence data Troy Wood, 1 Brad Butterfield 2 1 USGS, Flagstaff 2 Northern Arizona University

2. News Flash: Plants are locally adapted Multiple reviews, e.g.: Leimu and Fischer, 2008; Sexton 2014 Hereford 2009–local = 45% > fitness and magnitude predicted by environmental difference ….and others

3. CG Data on Priority Species ACHY: 2 – 1 defines zones BOGR2: 14 ELEL2: 5 KOMA: 8 POSE: 5 (1 linked to B. tectorum competition) SPCR: 2 Forbs: 0 (1 study–multiple genetic groups)

4. Bouteloua gracilis (blue grama) C4 warm-season grass – Grazing tolerant and good forage – Market survey: highest demand (southern CP) Broad distribution + diverse morphologies – Genetic? – Environmental?

5. Source Populations Seeds collected from broad range of environmental conditions – 43 populations (3 improved) – 686 individuals – 2x + 4x individuals Planted in common garden near Flagstaff

6. Measurements Survival [Flowering Time] Functional Traits (37,185) Specific leaf area Leaf dry matter content Leaf area Environmental Variables Mean Annual Temp Temp Seasonality Temp of Wettest Qrtr Mean Annual Precip Precip Seasonality Precip of Hottest Qrtr

8. Genetic Variation in Leaf Area and SLA

9. SLA Decreases with Increasing MAT “Expensive” leaves in high MAT – Reduced transpiration, greater longevity Cheap leaves in low MAT – High photosynthetic rate, low initial investment Tradeoff between photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency

10. Area Increases with MAT, Precip Warm Qtr Larger/longer in hot, wet summer env.

11. Climatic Predictors of Survival Best Model: Mean = 57% (± 3.4%) Whole model: R 2 = 0.34, p<0.0031 TermsEstimatep-value TempSeas -0.14<.0001 MAT -0.080.0373 PrecipSeas -0.070.0799

12. Summary BOGR2 garden study Genetic variation in functional traits – SLA and leaf size/length And it is correlated with source environment – Suggests local adaptation At Flagstaff, survival predicted by temp/precip Ploidy not correlated with response variables

13. Garden Studies Time & Cost: High Inference limited by grow out site climate Garden X source site choice critical

14. Alternative Approaches Provisional maps Genome scans to ID adaptive genetic variation Species distribution modeling – Informed provisional

15. Genetic Markers Only Genotype populations Identify putatively adaptive markers Map seed zones with climate by adaptive genetic correlations Sphaeralcea ambigua

16. Species Distribution Models Model suitable habitat Data free, analysis cost modest Can determine most important climate limiters––globally and regionally Sensible to use these limiters for a more informed provisional map? Testable…

17. Modeling Methods Occurrences from digitized herbaria GBIF + SEINET Use uncorrelated climate variates to predict habitat suitable, training and testing phases Perform with ensemble of models (8) Evaluate climate variable importance

18. Blue grama: current and future (2080) Red = present, not future Blue = future, not present Purple = stasis

19. Blue grama: current and future (2080) MAT0.26,0.05 TDiurn0.29,0.04 TSeas0.47,0.06 TWetQtr0.16,0.04 MAP0.07,0.03 PSeas0.08,0.02 PWrmQtr0.14,0.03

20. Blue grama: current and future (2080) MAT0.26,0.05 TDiurn0.29,0.04 TSeas0.47,0.06** TWetQtr0.16,0.04 MAP0.07,0.03 PSeas0.08,0.02 PWrmQtr0.14,0.03 CP ONLY MAT0.06 TDiurn0.1 TSeas0.22 TWetQtr0.03 MAP0.23 PSeas0.26 PWrmQtr0.39

21. Fire Regime Fire Regime Groups Mean Fire Return Interval % Low-severity Fire % Mixed-severity Fire % Replacement-severity Fire Succession Classes Disturbance Disturbance 1990-2008 Fuel Disturbance Vegetation Disturbance Next – Intersect Current Suitability Landfire Layers

22. Hindsight Model Identify Where Estimate Abundance (Who) Which Can Be Increased How Many Sources Are Practical Which Source(s) Minimize Transfer EcoDistance --refine estimates of EcoDistance with empirical data

23. Concluding Remark All preceding approaches based on judgment: “Hence, in determining whether a [group] should be ranked as an [ecotype], the opinion of naturalists having sound judgement and wide experience seems the only guide to follow.” –Darwin, The Origin

24. Summary Funding BLM, USGS SEGA and the Arboretum at Flagstaff Kris Haskins, Amy Whipple and Tom Whitham Stewart Sanderson, USFS Rachel Ostlund, Patty West, SOS Acknowledgments