1. Inputs from the PROMOTE/MACC projects Laurence Rouïl (INERIS)

2. 2 Observations Météorologie Chimie (GeoMon, IAGOS…) Surf. continentales et océaniques Numerical models Services Régional Model Global Model Model D Model C Model B Model A General Concept of the future GMES atmospheric services Data assimilation

3. 3 Towards the GAS…. 2006200720082009 201020112012 MACC (ECMWF) Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate « user-producer partnership » FP6 : GEMS (ECMWF) Global and regional Earth-system monitoring from in-situ and Satellite data « producer-driven » ESA GSE : PROMOTE1-2 (DLR) Protocol Monitoring for the Groud Segment Element Atmosphere « user-driven » User Forum for the Service « atmosphere» (dec. 2006, Brussels) Implementation Group of the GMES Atmospheric Service Forum GMES (sept. 2008, Lille) Operational GAS

4. What has been achieved with PROMOTE Service Level Agreement (SLA) signed with EEA for the provision of O3 and PM10 (tentatively) daily analysed maps Combination of model simulation and observation using simple data assimilation techniques (optimal interpolation) Use of NRT OzoneWeb data O3 -> OK with the CHIMERE/PREV’AIR approach PM -> still under development (consistency issues) Forecast issues mot covered by the SLA but information available

5. Improved representation of air pollution patterns Better diagnosis of air pollution episodes (PM especially) Cross-validation, French Stations, Summer 2006

6. MACC follow-up : NRT analyses and validated a posteriori analyses Operational provision of NRT air quality maps on a daily/hourly basis Operational provision of validated air quality assessment reports for Europe (re-analyses) Option : air qulity forecast on a daily basis Use of modelling, in-situ an satellite data, through the methodologies developed in MACC; ensemble approach 6 models involved recognised for their skills : CHIMERE (F), EMEP (N), EURAD (D), LOTOS-EUROS (NL),MATCH (S), MOCAGE (F) Strong interface with institutional users (EEA, national agencies) -> policy makers oriented products

7. Potential contribution to the SOER report Analysis of specific pollution episodes that occurred in recent years (re-analysis capacity in MACC) Accurate representation of air pollution patterns (combination of models and observations and ensemble approach) Use of in-situ and satellite data (particularly interesting for long range events) -> validated data-sets Focus on Ozone and PM

8. Example : PM episodes in spring 2007

10. Example : forest fires in summer 2007 10 FRP product (MSG/SEVIRI) used for estimating aerosol emissions. 25 km resolution model runs Cooperation with the FREEVAL project (M. Wooster, G. van der Werf, …). First test case for ensemble re-analyses in MACC 2007-08-25 12:05 26 August 10:00

11. What if scenarios …. MACC includes a « policy-support » work package Analysis of the determinant of air pollution episodes : local vs transboundary, sources analyses

12. Emergency scenarios (what if) ◦ « Theoritical » example : 10th January 2009 ; CHIMERE runs PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : alternating traffic (-47 ton/jr over 14O ton/jr PM10 emitted ) PM10 concentration reduction (%) against the reference : wood combustion suppressed (-753 ton/jr over 825 PM10 emitted)

13. Conclusions  A new generation of products tested in PROMOTE/GEMS will become operational in MACC and in the GAS (2012) : high resolution monitoring, mapping and forecasting capacities at the European scale  Daily analyses, re-analyses of pollution events, emission reduction scenarios of general interest can be covered  Sensitive issues : NRT in-situ data, extended validated datasets, maturity of Earth Observation products  User-oriented approach (SLA, workshops), especially for policy issues (DG ENV, EEA, JRC, EPAs…)  Contribution to the SOER report can be prepared : focus on specific ozone and PM episodes? Which year? Which indicators?

14. The GMES Atmospheric Service