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1 Basis risk of hedging 1 Insufficient windSufficient windExcessive wind Turbine operation normal => YesPayoutNo payoutPayout => NoPayoutNo payoutPayout.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Basis risk of hedging 1 Insufficient windSufficient windExcessive wind Turbine operation normal => YesPayoutNo payoutPayout => NoPayoutNo payoutPayout."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Basis risk of hedging 1 Insufficient windSufficient windExcessive wind Turbine operation normal => YesPayoutNo payoutPayout => NoPayoutNo payoutPayout Transmission constraint => YesPayoutNo payoutPayout => NoPayoutNo payoutPayout  There is basis risk in two directions Power production affected by factors other than wind There will be a payout although it would not be possible to produce

2 2 Monthly payouts during course of time Implicit monthly production (based on Index) 1) Above red line (Put Strike) monthly production is sufficient and there will be no payout 2) Between red and green lines - difference between red line (Put Strike) and green line (Production) will be paid out (shortfall x feed-in tariff) 3) Below the blue line (Exit) there is no further payout (Maximum payout reached) Production (MWh) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Put Strike Exit Production > Put Strike = No Payout Production < Put Strike = Payout No additional payout below blue line (maximum payout reached) Alternative: Put-Option on Annual Production Annual Production Payout Put Strike 0 Option Premium Option payoff Exit Premium Dec Put Strike Put Limit

3 3 Testing the value of the hedge Assumptions Project Size 102 MW Wind Resource P50 2,472 Eqv. Hours / Year P75 2,226 Eqv. Hours / Year P90 2,039 Eqv. Hours / Year P95 1,927 Eqv. Hours / Year Project Costs 117.30 EUR MM Project Life 20 Years Total Costs 124.45 EUR MM Leverage 75:25 Total Debt 93.33 EUR MM Debt Tenor 17 Years Margin 400 Basis Points (above EURIBOR) Wind farm developed by mid-size sponsor in Spain. ‑ The project is located in a reasonable spot (good wind resource) ‑ Costs are in line with market conditions Results P50 Equity IRR13.48% NPV @ 8%22.508EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.53x P75 Equity IRR10.71% NPV @ 8%11.227EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.41x P95 Equity IRR7.43% NPV @ 8%-2.349EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.26x

4 Even if only benefits is intangible one of reducing risk of financial distress, costs is relatively low. 4 Impact of adding Wind Protection on the project's economics Results P50 Equity IRR13.17% NPV @ 8%21.514EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.50x P75 Equity IRR10.44% NPV @ 8%10.236EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.38x Even with the associated costs of wind protection in place, the economics of the project are not greatly affected. Put Option on Wind Power Index Strike at (P75) 5 years 10 EUR MM limit Premium 1.5 EUR MM 1 Buying wind protection Wind protection in place 75% / 25% Results P50 Equity IRR13.48% NPV @ 8%22.508EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.53x P75 Equity IRR10.71% NPV @ 8%11.227EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.41x No protection in place 75% / 25% 1 Rough estimation

5 5 Potential benefits of Wind Protection. Results P50 Equity IRR14.87% NPV @ 8%24.362EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.41x P75 Equity IRR11.63% NPV @ 8%13.058EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.30x Wind protection in place + change in Capital Structure 80:20 Results P50 Equity IRR13.81% NPV @ 8%23.776EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.54x P75 Equity IRR11.03% NPV @ 8%12.480EUR MM Minimum DSCR1.42x Wind protection in place + reduction in margin of 50 basis points By placing a floor on the production, the debt capacity of the project increases; lowering capital costs and improving the economics of the project. With protection in place, lenders may also reduce spreads.

6 6 Protection creates value across the capital structure Total benefit 4.52


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