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Lead Time Aviation Verification Onset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports NWS Aviation.

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Presentation on theme: "Lead Time Aviation Verification Onset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports NWS Aviation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lead Time Aviation Verification Onset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports NWS Aviation Services Branch Aviation Services Virtual Workshop April 16, 2013

2 Lead Time Accuracy Requirements Identified by Joint FAA/NWS Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Weather Requirements Working Group (TRWG) Performance-Based Weather Information Requirements –Linked to Decisions for Traffic Management Initiatives –Accuracy needed at decision points prior to onset and cessation New Verification Method, Different than Traditional Method –Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) only at time of onset and cessation, not throughout event duration Verification Metrics to Baseline Current Support against New Performance-Based Requirements –NWSH Performance Branch developed modified version of Stats on Demand 2

3 Lead Time Accuracy Requirements 3 Accuracy Criteria Needed for Time of Onset and Cessation of IFR, MVFR, VFR Conditions

4 Lead Time to Cig/Vis Event Example 4 MVFR Onset 0536Z VFR Cessation 0536Z MVFR Forecast Onset 0500Z VFR Forecast Cessation 0500Z

5 TAF Lead Time - IFR Onset POD 5 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of IFR Conditions at Core Airports Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 75% 20122013

6 TAF Lead Time – IFR Onset FAR 6 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of IFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

7 TAF Lead Time - IFR Onset Timing Error 7 Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of IFR Conditions 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

8 TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation POD 8 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of IFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Number of Events/Forecasts Probability of Detection 20122013

9 TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation FAR 9 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of IFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

10 TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation Timing Error 10 Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of IFR Conditions 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

11 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset POD 11 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Number of Events/Forecasts Probability of Detection 20122013

12 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset FAR 12 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of MVFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

13 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset Timing Error 13 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

14 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation POD 14 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Number of Events/Forecasts Probability of Detection 20122013

15 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation FAR 15 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of MVFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

16 TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation Timing Error 16 Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of MVFR Conditions 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

17 TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset POD 17 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Number of Events/Forecasts Probability of Detection 20122013

18 TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset FAR 18 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of VFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

19 TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset Timing Error 19 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

20 TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation POD 20 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Number of Events/Forecasts Probability of Detection 20122013

21 TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation FAR 21 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of VFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports 25% Number of Events/Forecasts False Alarm Ratio 20122013

22 TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation Timing Error 22 Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of VFR Conditions 30 min Number of Events/Forecasts Timing Error (minutes) 20122013

23 Summary Lead Time Accuracy Requirements –Decision process needs timing of Onset/Cessation of events impacting TFM on scale of tens of minutes New Verification Method, Different than Traditional Method –Preliminary Flight Category verification results show significant gap between accuracy baseline and decision process needs –TAF hourly time scale too coarse to meet need of TFM decisions –Model guidance time scale likely to lead to similar results Next Steps for Lead Time Assessment Tool –Wind Direction Changes, Thunderstorms, Model Guidance –Accessible on Performance Management Website –Training for Lead Time Verification Method and Results Interpretation 23


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