1. Wider Context Some Key Issues Demography Differential Performance ‘The Gap’

2. Demography – projected trends 2001201020202040 11-18 population 212,541195,086172,868158,058 % decrease 081926 Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a fifth by 2020

3. Secondary:Grammar Ratios 20022010201520202025 % Secondary 5956515049 % Grammar 4144495051 By 2020 grammar and secondary ratio will be 50:50

4. Impact on Secondary Schools Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations, rationalisation Ability mix within schools Impact will be greater in particular areas

5. Impact on Grammar Schools Ability mix within schools ­In 16 Grammar Schools, 95% or more of admissions were As or B1s in September 2002 ­8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present ­21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test ­ 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted

6. GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

7. GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupils

8. Average GCSE Point Scores MaleFemaleAll Pupils Northern Ireland 34.041.637.7 England37.442.940.1

9. % of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals Catholic Managed Other Managed Overall Grammar11.73.77.3 Secondary37.022.329.4

10. 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers