1. Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Network Challenges in a Low Carbon Future Jenny Cooper – Transmission R&D, National Grid

2. 2 Outline  Background – Electricity Network Uncertainty  Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement of the Electricity Network  Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system  Conclusions

3. 3 Our Electricity Transmission business - UK  National Grid owns the transmission system (>275kV) in England and Wales  National Grid is the System Operator for entire GB transmission network

4. 4 The only certainty is change

5. 5 The challenge  For the industry  Deliver this future:  Sustainably  Securely  Economically  For National Grid  Connecting generation & reinforcing the network  Operating the system 5

6. 6 The main challenge! 6

7. 7 Offshore wind penetration 7 Scenario NameSlow ProgressionGone GreenAccelerated Growth 2020 installed offshore wind 9,724MW16,374MW32,239MW 2030 installed offshore wind 23,174MW26,354MW51,552MW % renewable electricity generation 21%32%43% 2020 target hitMissedHitExceeded

8. Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Risk Management via Connection and Reinforcement 8

9. 9 Major System Reinforcements  Proposed 2020 Network  Based on Gone Green scenario  Intra network-HVDC links  Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation  Multiple Quad Boosters  High boundary transfers  Complex fault management  http://www.ensg.gov.uk/index. php?article=126 http://www.ensg.gov.uk/index. php?article=126

10. 10 Electricity Transmission System - Today

11. 11 Electricity Transmission System - 2030

12.  Many new technologies for the onshore system  Embedded HVDC  Series Capacitors  Wide Area Monitoring  Dynamic Ratings  Etc.  Aim is to enhance the performance of the existing network Technical Challenges - Onshore

13.  This is the BIG Challenge!  New technologies – not just for the UK  VSC HVDC  Multi-terminal HVDC  Very large connections (>11GW)  Rapid introduction of new technology to the UK  Offshore Development Information Statement: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/ODIS/ http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/ODIS/ Technical Challenges - Offshore

14. 14 Infrastructure Costs  Estimated costs to deliver the future  £5bn to deliver onshore reinforcements  Gone Green Scenario  £15.9bn for radial solution  £11.5bn for integrated solution

15. Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Operational uncertainties and risk - Managing the system

16. Changing the fuel mix: Gone Green changing dependencies High winds exceed minimum system demands - constrain off, build more interconnectors or increase storage Potential greater reliance on gas for balancing Need for high level of generation capacity - some with very low utilisation 2010 2020 Summer Minimum 2010 2020 2010 Demand Interconnectors Wind Interconnectors Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Summer Minimum DemandGeneration Wind Nuclear Summer Minimum DemandGeneration Wind Nuclear 70GW 100GW

17. 17 Intermittency 3 month period modelled using 2005 demand data and projected 2030 levels of wind Generation greater than demand!

18. 18 Indicative Short Term Operating Reserve Requirement - 2020

19. 19 Operations Challenges  Intermittency  Generation forecasting  Reduced system Inertia  Increased variation in flows across the system  Different demand profiles

20. 20 Conclusion  Many challenges to come  We need to understand the issues and work to develop solutions  Need to know the “unknown unknowns”  Need as much research as possible  Energy Storage – would solve a lot of problems

21. 21 Thank You! Any Questions?