1. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 1 Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision- making A presentation to ISMOR 2009 Laura Bryan

2. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 2 Contents 1. Introduction 2. The need for decision support in TLCM 3. What can we do to exploit OA better? 4. The TRAiDE™ approach 5. Why use the TRAiDE™ approach? 6. Combat air capability example 7. Some example outputs 8. Summary 9. Questions

3. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 3 The need for decision support in TLCM MOD’s AOF definition: “Through Life Capability Management translates the requirements of Defence policy into an approved programme that delivers the required capabilities, through-life, across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoD)” OA models and toolsets support decision makers at all levels From www.aof.mod.uk

4. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 4 National Capability Trade Offs Defence Policy and National requirements Capability Change Plan Capability Management Plan Through Life Management Plan Cross Capability Trade Offs Equipment / LoD Trade Offs CMG Capability Trade Offs LoDs Budget & Aspirations Reality and Costs The need for decision support in TLCM

5. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 5 The need for decision support in TLCM Many OA models and studies address specific questions. Why not bring these together under a consistent & common framework that supports DMs at different levels…? Decisions and trades need to be made over time at different levels The trade space is not discrete Lots of data and information exists & is generated at each level There are many factors to take into account MOD budgets are constrained Capability must be managed against changing threats

6. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 6 The TRAiDE™ approach All elements are supported by suitably trained people using robust processes and techniques The information manager is at the core of TRAiDE ™, ensuring that all models & tools use a single source of data (capture once, use many times) Consistent and intuitive visualisations bring together the information to support the decision- making process External models & software interface with the information manager The information manager enables us to capture and store data using a consistent structure

7. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 7 Why use the TRAiDE™ approach Trades can be made using a common informed dataset Ensures decisions can be made with high level coherence Ensures decisions are made in context, across boundaries Ensures consistent use of data within the various models and tools Collect data once, use many times Brings together different tools & models within a coherent framework Don’t need to re-invent Get a more-holistic view of the issues & support ‘higher-level’ decisions Provides consistent visualisations at different levels in the hierarchy Can produce different views for different audiences using the same data Inclusivity Bring together data, knowledge and stakeholders (including industry) The method is re-usable and repeatable The method is scalable – can be aggregated / dis-aggregated

8. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 8 Combat Air Capability example The project: Examine the benefits of a joint (MOD & BAE Systems) approach to TLCM Understand the impact of decisions on fast jet capability and sustainability Developed a decision support toolset to enable cost, FE@R and industrial trade-off analysis across key DLoDs Modelled the key activities required to deliver and support fast jet capability over the next 30 years for current and future fast jet fleets Quantified the relationships between key factors

9. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 9 Combat Air Capability example Combat air capability Fast Jet FE@R Generation FJ Costs DLoD demands Industrial capacity Project & programme risks Cost models OA models and toolsets DLoD models Risk tools Industrial models Capabilit y models Data & assumptionsOptions & scenariosUser interfaces Option comparison Requirements Fast Jet Activity models

10. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 10 Risk Model s Cost Models Capabilit y Models Activit y Model s Industr y Models DLoD Model s MDA L Capabilit y Profiles FE@ R Profile s Cost Profile s Risk Profile s The Combat Air TRAiDE™ approach Option comparison Requirements OA models & tools User interface (information manager) Data & assumptions

11. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 11 Some example outputs

12. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 12 Summary TRAiDE™ is a framework, not a tool Combines people, processes, techniques and information management TRAiDE™ is inclusive Allows existing tools, models and data to be integrated It can support trade-offs and capability management at different levels involving different stakeholders It offers a way of improving our use of OA by bringing together discrete studies & toolsets in a coherent way TRAiDE™ has been used successfully by BAE Systems on a number of studies / engagements In support of MOD In support of BAE Systems To support joint MOD & BAE Systems studies

13. TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for. © Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved 13 Questions?