1. IAEA EMRAS II : background and introduction

2. Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II) General aim of programme To improve capabilities in the field of environmental radiation dose assessment Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II) General aim of programme To improve capabilities in the field of environmental radiation dose assessment

3. Means for achieving improvement - acquisition of improved data for model testing - model testing and comparison - reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values - development of improved methods - exchange of information

4. Brief history of international environmental model testing and improvement  1985-90 BIOMOVS – Swedish sponsored  1988-94 – the IAEA VAMP programme (prompted by Chernobyl)  1996-2002– the IAEA BIOMASS programme  2003-2007- the IAEA EMRAS I programme  2009 – new programme IAEA EMRAS II

5. Contents of Past Programmes  VAMP mainly scenarios from Chernobyl release mainly scenarios from Chernobyl release transfer data collection transfer data collection  BIOMASS Chernobyl scenarios with others Chernobyl scenarios with others environmental clean-up environmental clean-up methodology for assessing the long term environmental impact of radioactive waste disposal (Reference biospheres) methodology for assessing the long term environmental impact of radioactive waste disposal (Reference biospheres)  EMRAS I scenarios from routine and accident situations scenarios from routine and accident situations transfer data review and update transfer data review and update biota model testing and comparison biota model testing and comparison

6. EMRAS I topics (1)  Theme 1: Radioactive release assessment  TRS-364 WG Revision of IAEA transfer data handbook Revision of IAEA transfer data handbook New and revised data New and revised data now includes tropical data now includes tropical data  I-131 WG Model testing Model testing Chernobyl scenarios, dose and environmental concentrations Chernobyl scenarios, dose and environmental concentrations

7. EMRAS I topics (2)  H-3 and C-14 WG Model testing Model testing Real routine release and accidental release scenarios, Real routine release and accidental release scenarios, OBT concerns OBT concerns  Aquatic WG model testing model testing real routine and accidental release scenarios, real routine and accidental release scenarios, rivers and lakes rivers and lakes

8. EMRAS I topics (3)  Theme 2: Remediation assessment  Urban WG limited testing and comparison limited testing and comparison urban contamination following accidental releases urban contamination following accidental releases a real scenario and a hypothetical scenario a real scenario and a hypothetical scenario  NORM WG mainly scenario development and model and data collection mainly scenario development and model and data collection  Theme 3: Assessments related to Protection of the Environment  Biota WG model comparison and testing model comparison and testing real chronic releases to lake real chronic releases to lake

9. EMRAS I output  Overview/summary booklet with reports of 6 WGs in attached CD(s)  Revision of TRS 364 to be issued in TRS series

10. Follow-up to EMRAS  IAEA has recognised value of EMRAS and the previous programmes and decided to sponsor another programme in this field  The new programme should be linked to real issues in radiological risk assessment real issues in radiological risk assessment to the needs of countries to the needs of countries to new international developments to new international developments  Avoid topics which are mainly only of academic interest

11. Preparation for EMRAS II  Ideas from IAEA Conference on Environmental Radioactivity (April 2007)  Ideas from Final EMRAS I meeting (Nov 2007)  Input from Questionnaire sent to EMRAS participants in Dec 2007)  Views of IAEA Secretariat  Consultants Meeting in May 2008

12. Preparation for EMRAS II EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (1)  Continue some existing WGs: i.e., Biota, H-3/C-14, Urban, NORM i.e., Biota, H-3/C-14, Urban, NORM  Also, use new model testing scenarios

13. Preparation for EMRAS II EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (2)  H-3/C-14 – testing in new situations but also a political need in some countries a political need in some countries transfer of knowledge and training transfer of knowledge and training  Urban dispersion and transfer modelling not yet reliable dispersion and transfer modelling not yet reliable currently an important topic currently an important topic  NORM only slightly explored as yet only slightly explored as yet almost all countries have NORM issues almost all countries have NORM issues must be coherent with other IAEA activities in this area must be coherent with other IAEA activities in this area

14. Preparation for EMRAS II EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (3)  Biota – more to do, model testing and comparison model testing and comparison international reference transfer data international reference transfer data interact with other international projects, e.g., ICRP and EC interact with other international projects, e.g., ICRP and EC  New model testing scenarios (Russian rivers and estuaries) integrated testing – several nuclides, aquatic and terrestrial environments integrated testing – several nuclides, aquatic and terrestrial environments human and biota impacts, human and biota impacts, countermeasure effectiveness countermeasure effectiveness

15. Preparation for EMRAS II EMRAS I – Participants’ ideas (4) Transfer of knowledge and providing training Transfer of knowledge and providing training A new recognition of the importance of EMRAS type programmes for facilitating the transfer of knowledge to younger generations and for providing training for new generations of assessorsA new recognition of the importance of EMRAS type programmes for facilitating the transfer of knowledge to younger generations and for providing training for new generations of assessors

16. Preparation for EMRAS II  New ideas (1)  Implications of new ICRP recommendations and BSS revision for assessment modelling  Needs of developing countries – small scale releases (semi-training)  Nuclear renaissance – improved international guidance for environmental assessment of new facilities

17. Preparation for EMRAS II New ideas (2)  Harmonized approach for protection of humans and biota  Environmental sensitivity – variation of appropriate countermeasures with environment type  Effects of environmental change on assessment of long term impact of waste repositories

18. Proposals for EMRAS II  Four Working Groups covering:  most of the topics previously mentioned  but with a new focus on developing international guidance on assessment methods, that is, reference approaches

19. Proposals for EMRAS II  1. Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges emphasis on:  establishing and testing reference assessment schemes for regulatory purposes,  the graded approach for determining compliance  2. Reference Approaches for Assessing the Radiation Doses to Biota  emphasis on:  continuing EMRAS I work on biota model testing,  a handbook of transfer parameter data for biota

20. Proposals for EMRAS II  3. Assessment after Emergency Situations  emphasis on:  evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures,  developing a reference accident assessment model for tritium  4. Integrated Assessment  emphasis on multi-nuclide, multi-media model testing with varied endpoints.

21. Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges)  1A. Prospective assessment of radioactive discharges  Establishing reference principles and procedures for the prospective assessment of radioactive releases – standard models, parameters, assumptions.  Testing of model predictions based on harmonized principles and procedures  1B. Prospective assessment of the long-term impact of radioactive waste repositories  Extension of the BIOMASS reference biosphere work to consider influence of environmental change

22. Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges)  1C. Prospective assessment of the impact of NORM releases to the environment.  Model improvement and testing for NORM releases  Exploration of reference regulatory approaches to NORM release assessment  1D. Assessments for demonstrating compliance Reference and graded assessment schemes for demonstrating compliance at the operational stage  Use of source and environmental monitoring data and development of guidance on appropriate monitoring schemes

23. Working Group 1 (Reference and Graded Approaches for Assessing the Impact of Radioactive Discharges)  1E. Harmonized assessment scheme for protecting humans and biota  Review and testing of existing and new proposals for an integrated approach  Coordinate with WG 2

24. Working Group 2 (Reference approaches for assessing radiation doses to biota)  Complete work of EMRAS on model testing  Develop handbook of transfer parameter values for application to biota  Develop protection quantities and levels for biota

25. Working Group 3 (Assessment after emergency situations)  3A. Urban situations  Evaluation of effectiveness of countermeasures – model comparison and testing  Complete EMRAS I work  3B. Rural situations – environmental sensitivity  Model evaluation of the influence of environmental sensitivity on countermeasure effectiveness  Determining the most appropriate rural countermeasures  3C. Tritium accidents  Model testing and comparison  Develop a reference conceptual dynamic model for tritium accident dose assessment

26. Working Group 4 (Integrated assessment)  Seek suitable (unique and unusual) data sets  Test models  Aim for scenarios with releases to multiple media (air, land, rivers and sea), multiple nuclides and a range of endpoints

27. Two additional potential topics  Norway – international guidance on regulatory assessment tools  In particular, prospective assessments of the impacts to be addressed during the planning and implementation of the remediation of legacy sites  (to be considered by WG1)  France – biota effects analysis  Modelling to determine dose effects on species, derivation of species protection thresholds, population effects, acquisition of relevant data  (to be considered by WG2)

28. Considerations  Practicalities  Viability For a new WG or sub-group within the new programme, there must be evidence of sufficient support from Member States for proposals – WGs must be viable, e.g., sufficient modellers prepared to submit estimates using their models, evidence of data sources and suppliers For a new WG or sub-group within the new programme, there must be evidence of sufficient support from Member States for proposals – WGs must be viable, e.g., sufficient modellers prepared to submit estimates using their models, evidence of data sources and suppliers

29. Arrangements for this meeting  1. Each participant should indicate his/her interest in one (or more) of the Working Groups.  2. Temporary ‘Moderators’ have been appointed for this meeting for each WG  WG 1  WG 2 Brenda Howard  WG 3 Kathy Thiessen  WG 4 Gerhard Prohl

30. Arrangements for this meeting  3. The Moderator of each WG will hold discussions on the potential work of the WG, including presentations on proposed topics if appropriate Should all of the topics be addressed? Should all of the topics be addressed? Are there additional topics to be considered? Are there additional topics to be considered? Is there enough interest to justify work on a particular topic? Is there enough interest to justify work on a particular topic? Can a reasonable working plan be developed for the WG Can a reasonable working plan be developed for the WG  4.WG leaders should be identified and, if necessary, sub-groups established and Leaders identified.

31. Main goals to be achieved at the end of the meeting  1- Realistic working plans (including location of the meetings)  2 – Evidence of WG and Sub-WG viability  3 - WG leader's name  4 - WG sub-groups, if needed, with the names of the sub-group leaders. 

32. Benefits of international model testing  Opportunities to compare with other groups  Wider selection of scenarios for testing  Wider selection of transfer data  Improve modelling capabilities globally

33. Organization  Typically 20-30 countries involved  Active participation > 100 persons  Working groups – 10-20 members  Meetings - one combined meeting/year, two/three WG meetings/year  Funding – small amounts of IAEA and sponsor money – mainly self-supporting.

34. EMRAS process  Model testing  Test scenario obtained and checked (by data providers)  Modellers invited to make the predictions requested for the scenario (blind testing)  Predictions compared with observations and discussed.  Reasons for mis-prediction identified  Conclusions drawn on how to improve

35. Typical format  Model testing using real environmental data sets  Model comparison – where no good data sets exist  Data improvement – international reference transfer data

36. EMRAS process  Model comparison  Similar to model testing but with hypothetical scenarios  Analysis based entirely on discussion between modellers  Establishing Reference Data Sets  Bring together national experts on transfer data  Review literature  Summarise and recommend default values for use in modelling indicating associated uncertainties

37. IAEA plans  Review proposals early 2008  Propose new programme early/mid-2008  Evaluate Member States’ responses  Make definitive proposal mid/late 2008  1 st meeting new programme - November 2008

38. Preparation for EMRAS II  IAEA views  Draw on new ICRP exposure scenarios for programme structure, i.e., planned, existing and emergency  Planned  i) emphasise integrated assessment modelling – multiple nuclides, multiple environments – idea of an international methodology  ii) Biota dose assessment  Existing – assessment of environments affected by NORM  Emergency – consideration of ‘environmental sensitivity’ in assessment modelling