1. DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR ASSESSING WHIRLING DISEASE RISK

2. Risk analysis is a tool intended to provide decision makers with an objective, repeatable and documented assessment of the risks posed by a particular course of action.Risk analysis is a tool intended to provide decision makers with an objective, repeatable and documented assessment of the risks posed by a particular course of action. What is a Risk Analysis?

3. Risk analysis is intended to answer;Risk analysis is intended to answer; What can go wrong?—the hazard identification,What can go wrong?—the hazard identification, How likely is it to go wrong and what would be the consequences of its going wrong?—the risk assessment, andHow likely is it to go wrong and what would be the consequences of its going wrong?—the risk assessment, and What can be done to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of its going wrong?—risk management.What can be done to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of its going wrong?—risk management.

4. Risk Analysis Hazard identificationHazard identification –Myxobolus cerebralis Risk assessmentRisk assessment Release assessmentRelease assessment Exposure assessmentExposure assessment Consequence assessmentConsequence assessment Risk estimationRisk estimation

5. System 1 (source) System 2 Overt disease FACTORS AFFECTING PARASITE INTRODUCTION +/- pathways for parasite introduction and dispersal pathways for parasite introduction and dispersal viability of parasite during introduction viability of parasite during introduction Release Assessment

6. System 1 (source) +/- FACTORS AFFECTING PARASITE ESTABLISHMENT System 2 OvertDisease Encounters between parasites and hosts Infection of worm host Proliferation of infectious stages Exposure Assessment

7. System 1 (source) System 2 Overt disease FACTORS AFFECTING DISEASE MANIFESTATION IN FISH +/- pathways that are conducive to the development pathways that are conducive to the development of the parasite and whirling disease in the fish Consequence Assessment

8. Introduction Recreational Activities Fish Transfer Restoration Activities Commercial Activities Natural Dispersal Boaters, anglers Stream enhancemen t Fry Juveniles Adults Free myxospores, triactinomyxons Avian Wild fishWorms Infected fish products Species Source

9. Introduction frequency Establishment & Proliferation Fish Species susceptibility Population density Biotic Community Spatial/Temporal Overlap Worms System Modification Environment Strain susceptibilityPopulation density Temperature Flow Substrate Organisms life histories Habitat use Introduction size

10. Pathogen Disease Fish Species susceptibility Age Environment Temperature Virulence Dose Size

11. Goals of Risk Assessment Workgroup To complete the risk assessment exercise begun at the 2003 WDSTo complete the risk assessment exercise begun at the 2003 WDS Develop examples of how a risk assessment exercise can be usedDevelop examples of how a risk assessment exercise can be used Publish a manuscript on a RA model for whirling disease in FisheriesPublish a manuscript on a RA model for whirling disease in Fisheries Make model accessible by providing to National Partnership for further disseminationMake model accessible by providing to National Partnership for further dissemination