1. Terrestrial Scoping Workshop 26 – 28 April 2004 Westmark Hotel, Fairbanks, AK ARCN Conceptual Modeling

2. Good conceptual models for I&M Networks … Formalize current understanding of system components, processes, and dynamics Lead to a shared understanding Identify linkages, especially across disciplinary boundaries Clearly identify important interactions and feedbacks Show links between vital signs and processes

3. Why bother with conceptual models? Ecosystems are complex Monitoring programs have many components Ecological understanding is limited Opportunities for mis-understanding are unlimited Conceptual models enhance communication Between scientists and managers With the general public Among scientists and program staff

4. Match model structure to audience and need What you want to communicateModel type General system traitsGeneralized model – picture or box & arrow System dynamicsState & transition Mechanistic diagram Picture diagram Links & feedbacksMechanistic diagram Picture diagram Stressor – vital sign linksEPA stressor diagram

5. ARCN Conceptual Modeling Spatial Scale? Temporal Scale? Ecological Scale (ecosystem, community, landscape, population, etc…)? Natural vs. Anthropogenic? Driver vs. Stressor vs. Ecosystem Response (feedbacks)? Bottom-up or Top-down? Level of complexity (Audience- managers, public, scientific community?) Simple or complex? (2 or 3 dimensions) Interactive? Predictive or just thought provoking and informative? Based on real time data or theoretical?

6. Stressor/ Driver Models

7. Global Drivers/ Stressors Population Increase Tropical Forest Destruction; Peatland Loss Increase in Greenhouse Gases (esp. CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, O 3, and CFCs) Fossil fuel consumption Industrial Expansion in Developing Nations Empowerment of Indigenous People Change in Education and Expectation Contaminant Regulations Persistent Organic Pollutants (dioxin, PCB’s) Heavy Metals Mercury Arctic Haze Radioactive fallout (Chernobyl, Cesium, Nuclear testing) Acid Rain (N, S) Fertilization Effects (N)

8. Circumpolar Drivers/ Stressors  Sea Ice ↓ Thickness ↓ Extent  North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ↑ Russian River Discharge Desalinization of the AO  Arctic Oscillation (AO) Increased maritime effect ∆ Wind speed/ pattern ∆ Cloud Cover ∆ Precipitation ∆ Snowmelt dynamics ∆ Permafrost/ Active Layer Warming ↑ Circumpolar Forest Fires ↑ Polar Vortex ↑ Open Water ↓ Albedo  in Peatland Regime Glacier melt

9.  Snowcover Permafrost Melting Active Layer Warming Thermokarst Formation  Hydrology Vegetation Changes Exotic Species Fire Regime Albedo Effects Net Carbon Sink/ Source  Nutrient Cycling Changes in biogeochemical cycling Change in marine-life Change in Coastal/ Estuarine Zone Change in Coastal Subsistence Activities Destruction of Yedoma (Receding Coastline) Change in Inland Subsistence Activities Caribou/ Fish Range, Population, Migration Change in Invertebrate Distribution & Biomass Regional Drivers/ Stressors

10. Local Drivers/ Stressors and Possible Ecosystem Responses (Within or Adjacent to Park Boundaries) North Slope Oil and Gas Development Carbon (smoke, particulates, air quality) Ice roads Spills (land and rivers) Habitat degradation/ fragmentation Human development/ population increase Gravel mining Road construction Increase in public access Light pollution/ noise Possible ecosystem responses: Increase or Decrease in Biological Diversity Population/ Genetic/ Demographic Changes Change in Community Dynamics/ Foodweb Structure Change in Ecosystem Structure/ Function/ Stability Change in Disturbance Regime Biogeographic Changes (  Migration Pattern) Changes in human use (eg. subsistence patterns) Physical shifts (hydrology, thermokarst) Shift in Watershed Dynamics Feedbacks (albedo effects) Seaborne pollution Ocean Dumping Accidental Spills Radioactive Wastes Mining Activities Current Mining (e.g. Red Dog) Past Mining (hazmat sites) Future Mining Activities Villages and Inholdings Water Quality/ /Waste Transportation (air, water) Harvest Site Development Subsistence Activities Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals Snow machine use Camp sites/ Instillations Trespass/ Illegal Harvest Reindeer Herding Sport and Recreation Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals Animal Displacement Technical Climbing Camp Sites/ Instillations Establishment of Trails/ Facilities Trespass/ Illegal Harvest Water, Land & Air Travel Administrative Activities Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals Animal Displacement Noise Aircraft/ airstrips Establishment of trails/ facilities Humans as vectors for disease/ exotics Transportation Corridors Air transportation Proposed Roads (RS2477) Ice Roads Water transportation (marine, river) Snow Machine/ Mushing Trails

11. Conceptual Ecosystem Models Let’s take a stab at one or several !!! Work in progress for ARCN

12. I Climate Warmer (increased seasonality) Warmer (decreased seasonality) Cooler (decreased seasonality) Cooler (increased seasonality) Thawed Active Layer/ Depth-Duration Glacier Mass Balance Snow Duration Summer Winter Sea and Lake Ice Duration Precipitation Quantity Precipitation As Snow Growing Season Duration + - + - + - + - + - ? - + ? + - + - + - + - + - + - + -

13. Biomechanics of Treeline Modification in Relation to Climate Change

14. (From Chapin et al. 2000) Mechanisms by which species interactions affect ecosystem processes

15. Pathways and Ecosystem-level Consequences of Air Toxic Pollutants

16. 2 2 1 1 3 3 6 6 9 9 10 5 5 4 4 7 7 Potential Vectors for Exotic Species 1 Visitation at Serpentine Hot Springs 2 Transport via Red Dog Mine Port 3 Camping along Noatak and Kobuk Rivers 4 Hunting and floating along length of Noatak River 5 Migration of exotic plants along river corridors 6 Popular landing areas around Kobuk Sand Dunes 7 Potential new road corridors 8 ATV trails out of Anaktuvik Pass or off Dalton Highway 9 Backpacking entry points along Dalton Highway