1. UNDERSTANDING MASS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY Conclusion to Course

2. FOCUS General question: How strong are new democracies around the world? Specific question: How solid is mass support for democracy? Especially in the Islamic world? Dataset: World Values Survey, 1999-2001

3. MODEL Model: Level of democracy = f (Popular support) Level of democracy: Freedom House scores on political rights (1-7) and civil liberties (1-7) Finding I: Overt lip service not a reliable indicator of level of democracy (necessary but not sufficient) Finding II: Tolerance, trust, activism, and “post- materialist” values are stronger indicators of stable democracy

4. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS In median country, 92% support idea of democracy But in 18 societies, a majority endorse “a strong leader who does not have to bother with elections or parliament” And strong correlations emerge between FH indices 1981-2000 and Democracy/Autocracy Index (e.g., +.506)

5. DEMOCRACY/AUTOCRACY INDEX A. Democracy “a good way of governing” B. Democracy “better than any other form” C. Expert decisions “best for country” D. Strong leader who does not have to bother with elections or parliament Index = (A%+B%) – (C%+D%)

6. SURVIVAL vs. SELF-EXPRESSION A.Most people can be trusted B.Very happy, quite, not very, not at all C.Homosexuality justified? (r with FH scores = +.804) D.Sign a petition? E.Materialist/Post-materialist values Survival/Self-expression factor scores: correlation with FH scores 1981-2000 = +.830

7. REGRESSION MODEL X = Survival/Self-expression scores Y = Freedom House ratings 1981-2000 (inverted, so minimum = 40 and maximum = 280) r = +.83

9. IMPLICATIONS Societies in transition zone, including Mexico Asian societies “may be more ready for democracy than is generally believed” Islamic societies “roughly where one would expect, on the basis of their level of economic development…” Question: Why not use dummy variables?

10. IMPLICATIONS (cont.) Causal sequence: –Economic development leads to –Self-expression values which lead to –Higher levels of sustained democracy “Culture seems to shape democracy far more than democracy shapes culture.”

11. FINAL THOUGHTS: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED, ANYWAY?

12. 1.Logic and principles of statistical analysis (lectures) 2.Uses of software (sections and labs) 3.Applications in political science: Course Reader (lectures and sections) Student Projects (sections, labs, etc.) THE THREE-PRONGED APPROACH

13. SUMMATION OF COURSE Questions of Measurement Data, Variables, Concepts Levels of Measurement Central Tendency Dispersion Issues in Research Design Hypotheses and Models Approaching the Paper Assignment

14. OUTLINE (cont.) Categorical Data: Cross-Tabulations The Principle of PRE Lambda-b and Gamma Chi-Square and Statistical Significance Interval Data: Regression Analysis The Logic of Regression Interpreting Regression Coefficients The Meaning of Statistical Significance Multiple Regression Using Dummy Variables

15. Read professional articles in the field of political science Apply concepts of research design to your own work (quantitative or not) Identify questions of cause-and-effect Penetrate the fog of numbers and data Regale friends with tales of PS 30 Spring ‘08 WHAT YOU CAN NOW DO

16. The End… And Many Thanks