1. POLYGON WEATHER WARNINGS – A NEW APPROACH FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Ken Waters National Weather Service, Honolulu HI May 17, 2005 Public Service Meeting – Park City, UT

2. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Background National Weather Service issues four types of short-fused warnings: Tornado Warnings (TOR) Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (SVR) Flash Flood Warnings (FFW) Special Marine Warnings (SMW) Issued normally for one county at a time Can lead to a large false-alarm area, especially in the case of large or irregular-sized counties Verification has been strictly county-based Legacy dissemination methods all tied to counties: NOAA All-Hazards/Weather Radio Uses SAME alert code based on counties Internet displays – again, based on counties

3. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region WARNGEN Allows forecaster to graphically highlight the area of greatest threatAllows forecaster to graphically highlight the area of greatest threat Creates a template text product for the warning, including proper headers, issue/expiration times, county UGC codesCreates a template text product for the warning, including proper headers, issue/expiration times, county UGC codes ALSO: includes latitude/longitude vertex points for the pathcast, or polygon warning --- LITTLE USED by NWS, partners, and publicALSO: includes latitude/longitude vertex points for the pathcast, or polygon warning --- LITTLE USED by NWS, partners, and public

4. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Using GIS with Polygon Warnings Polygon vertices well-suited to include in GIS Polygon vertices well-suited to include in GIS Mechanism was established to strip off the lat- long polygon information, database the polygons, and create real-time GIS shapefiles Mechanism was established to strip off the lat- long polygon information, database the polygons, and create real-time GIS shapefiles Using only open source (“freeware”) software Using only open source (“freeware”) software Code written in PerlCode written in Perl Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” formatPolygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format Use “gen2shp” and “txt2dbf” packagesUse “gen2shp” and “txt2dbf” packages

5. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region County vs. Polygon Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs. Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.

6. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Polygon Advantages Shows specifically where the threat is Shows specifically where the threat is More accurately shows warning area on systems displaying warnings graphically More accurately shows warning area on systems displaying warnings graphically Reduction of risk area to public Reduction of risk area to public Better graphical description capabilities Better graphical description capabilities Wider local distribution via cell phones, PDAs, etc. Wider local distribution via cell phones, PDAs, etc. Increase NWS role in the confirmation part of the warning process Increase NWS role in the confirmation part of the warning process Private sector starting to turn to polygons Private sector starting to turn to polygons Allows NWS to refine warnings to true threat area Allows NWS to refine warnings to true threat area Allows us to track and set goals for false alarm area Allows us to track and set goals for false alarm area Better warning quality Better warning quality Keeps NWS in technological step Keeps NWS in technological step

7. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed Polygon Advantages

8. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region NWS Identifies a Need Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting Sept. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched Sept. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started

9. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Team Members Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator) Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator) Mike Coyne, SRH Mike Coyne, SRH Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC (ER) Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC (ER) Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Wichita, KS (CR) Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Wichita, KS (CR) Jeff Lorens, WRH Jeff Lorens, WRH Brent McAloney (OCWWS) Brent McAloney (OCWWS) Rich Okulski (OCWWS) Rich Okulski (OCWWS) Noreen Schwein, CRH (Hydrology) Noreen Schwein, CRH (Hydrology) Joe Shaffer, SPC Joe Shaffer, SPC Ken Waters, PRH Ken Waters, PRH

10. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Prototype Test

11. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Jackson MS Apr 5-7 “Trial by fire”

12. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region And now, some examples, using 2004 warnings

13. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Tornado Warnings -- 2004

14. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Tornado Warnings Florida 2004

15. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

16. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

17. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004

18. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Flash Flood Warnings

19. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Special Marine Warnings

20. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Flash Flood Warnings still very “county-based”

21. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

22. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Display of warnings only http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

23. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Busy Day….!

24. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region ArcIMS Map Service http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

25. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Includes LSR data from SPC

26. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Texas A&M Mesonet Site http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/

27. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Iowa Environmental Mesonet http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

28. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region The Challenges Internal to NWS Internal to NWS Forecaster paradigm shift to focus on weather threatForecaster paradigm shift to focus on weather threat Workload issues keeping track of warningsWorkload issues keeping track of warnings Ensuring events don’t slip between nearly adjacent warnings Ensuring events don’t slip between nearly adjacent warnings Verification measuresVerification measures Changes to GPRA baselines Changes to GPRA baselines Special verification issues (e.g., multiple warnings for same county) Special verification issues (e.g., multiple warnings for same county) SoftwareSoftware WARNGEN error -- periodically issues 2-point polygons well out of CWA WARNGEN error -- periodically issues 2-point polygons well out of CWA External to NWS External to NWS Dissemination!Dissemination! Many TV Stations not prepared to display polygons Many TV Stations not prepared to display polygons Niche market for private sector (e.g., WeatherData)Niche market for private sector (e.g., WeatherData) NOAA All-Hazards Radio NOAA All-Hazards Radio Technical limitation: location is based only on countyTechnical limitation: location is based only on county New generation of NWR needs to allow users to input either lat/long or nearest city to take advantage of polygon technologyNew generation of NWR needs to allow users to input either lat/long or nearest city to take advantage of polygon technology

29. Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region Questions? Updated every minute for TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW, as well as SPC watches Updated every minute for TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW, as well as SPC watches Available at: Available at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ hq/regsci/gishttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/ hq/regsci/gishttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/ hq/regsci/gishttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/ hq/regsci/gis Ken Waters Regional Scientist NWS Pacific Region Honolulu, Hawaii Ken.waters@noaa.gov (808) 532-6413