1. Water as a Source of Conflict & Cooperation: Southern Africa Tufts Water Systems, Science & Society Interdisciplinary Research & Graduate Program 24-28 February 2005 Medford, MA Dr. Anthony Turton Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management aturton@csir.co.za President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Rivers www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu

2. Shared River Basins Africa’s shared river basins contain: 61 % of the area 77 % of the people 93 % of the water © Pete Ashton

3. Shared Aquifer Systems © Pete Ashton

4. PERENNIAL RIVERS AND LAKES: SITES OF DISPUTES © Pete Ashton

5. = 860 mm isohyet = World average rainfall MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm © Pete Ashton

6. How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? © O’Keeffe et al

7. Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibi a Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 25 0 50 0 0 Kilometres N Rovuma South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000) Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa © P Ashton

8. Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibi a Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 25 0 50 0 0 Kilometres N Rovuma WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme © Pete Ashton

9. WATER AVAILABLE PER PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 2002 Water security Adequate water Water stress Chronic scarcity Absolute scarcity © Pete Ashton

10. Source: Scholes & Biggs (2004:4) HADCM3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES A2 Scenario showing Precipitation for 2050

11. Hydro-Political Complex Impacted International River Basins Legend: PS = Pivotal State IS = Impacted State SC = Special case Incomati PS - - IS Limpopo PS - IS Orange PS SC PS - - - - IS Namibia Botswana South Africa Zimbabwe Angola Mozambique Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Malawi Tanzania Riparian States Impacted States Pivotal States Pivotal Okavango PS - - IS Maputo PS - - IS Pungué PS - IS Save-Runde PS - IS Zambezi PS - IS - - Cunene - - - IS PS © A R Turton 2004

12. Heavily Utilized Water Resources in Southern Africa Water resources approaching “closure” – very little left to allocate for off-channel uses Water resources under increased pressure – need to ensure closer co-operation with neighbouring states Cuvelai Cunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibi a Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 25 0 50 0 0 Kilometres N Rovuma © Pete Ashton

13. Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers 50010000 Kilometre s N 0 % 0 - 10 % 11 - 24 % 25 - 49 % > 50 % Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States © Pete Ashton

14. Southern Africa was place where the Cold War got hot. © A R Turton 1982 This was in keeping with Kissinger’s doctrine of limited war…

15. © A R Turton 1982 Strategic infrastructure was regularly targeted for tactical reasons © A R Turton 1982

16. Heavy metal seepage from mine dumps © A R Turton 1982 While water infrastructure became a target of war at different scales it was never a cause of war

17. The water transfer pipeline from Calueque Dam in Angola to Namibia was in the middle of a theatre of the Cold War © A R Turton 1982

18. The pipeline was attacked on occasion for tactical reasons

19. © A R Turton 1982 Yet despite being a combat zone high levels of cooperation in the field of water resource management continued throughout the war © A R Turton 1982

20. This pump scheme is a strategic target but it was never attacked during the war although the delivery pipeline did become a tactical target on occasion At the analytical level it is important to distinguish between the strategic and the tactical scale In hydropolitics scale matters….

21. © A R Turton 1982 Combat patrol along water and electricity infrastructure

22. © A R Turton 1999 Now the Cold War guns stand silent as Southern Africa engages in reconstruction centered on the management of transboundary water resources The first regional protocol signed when South Africa joined SADC was the protocol on shared watercourse systems

23. © A R Turton 2004 Enabling former enemies to unite in their desire for post-conflict reconstruction through water resource management

24. © A R Turton 1995 While the journey has been rough it has always been in one direction – ultimately towards peace and regional integration The mighty Zambezi is not easy to tame But it is an important regional resource that is shared….

25. Water and Cooperation South Africa is a signatory to more than 70 treaties relating to water (research ongoing). Three of the four international river basins in SA have a comprehensive basin-wide agreement and accompanying River Basin Commission. The fourth is currently under negotiation (Limpopo). During the Cold War these cooperative agreements floated like islands of peace on a sea of violence and mistrust. This is the foundation for regional integration and post- conflict reconstruction in SADC.

26. The Importance of Scale LocalRegionalNational Geographical scale Many Few Alternative options available for dispute resolution Potential for dispute to occur Low HighSevere Mild Potential consequences of a dispute

27. Africa is always full of surprises Thank You