1. Congressional Elections: Incumbency Advantage: What is it and why does it dominate Congressional Elections?

2. Not Even a Good Scandal…? Bud Shuster (R- PA) Ken Calvert (R- CA) Larry Makinson, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics said, ``In the vast majority of races around the country, there is no question who is going to win…'Absent an indictment or scandal or a million in the bank, it's awfully difficult to unseat an incumbent.'

3. General Statistics: Trends in Incumbency Advantage Over last two decades, 94% of incumbents seeking reelection won Re-election rate has averaged about 95 % percent for the past 40 years and has seldom slipped below 90 percent Even in 1994, when the Republicans reclaimed the majority in the House for the first time in a generation, 85% of incumbents who sought re- election won

4. 2000 Election Winners 2%- Challengers 98%- Incumbent

5. Competitive Races - Senate (2000) One Senator (Jon Kyl, R-AZ) ran unopposed In House, fewer than one in 10 races competitive Total Races- 34 Competitive Races- 15

6. Party Primaries: Why Bother? It is extremely rare to have an incumbent lose in his own party primary. (Since 1990, 8 out of 2,000 elections) When this happens, you can be pretty sure he/she was sacrificed Incumbent Death- Incumbent Defeat- (Party Primary)

7. Redistricting: Creation of “Safe” Seats In 64 House districts, the population is so lopsidedly Democratic or Republican that there was only one major-party name on the ballot –That includes four out of the seven seats in Alabama, five out of 11 in Virginia and 10 out of 23 in Florida. About one in every seven House races have only one major party on ballot

8. Explanations for Incumbency Advantage Money? Name Recognition Institutional Advantages Casework Configuration of District Experience

9. Money? By July 1, 1999, more than a year before 2000 election, the average incumbent already had $300,000 in the bank for campaigning –That discourages quality challengers In over 80% of races, incumbent holds at least 2-1 advantage in money –In 2/3 of House races, the advantage was over 10-1 It is NOT the money that makes an incumbent win. The fact that the incumbent is going to win brings in the money!

11. Name Recognition At the most basic level, the public hesitates to vote for a candidate they know nothing about One of the most consistent findings over the years in looking at voting in congressional elections is that simply knowing who the candidate is has a striking impact in voting for that candidate When presented with the names of two candidates on the ballot, the fact that the voter recognizes one of those names will lead to a likely vote for that individual

12. Institutional Advantages Franking privilege –Most members spend as much on franking as opponent spends in entire campaign Money to travel to district –Originally, only 3 visits per year –Today, 30-50 times per year Free Press –CSPAN –Local news coverage –Access to media production facilities in Capitol Building

13. Casework What is casework: Congressional staff helping constituents solve problems and cut red tape –Huge increases in staff size Casework is NON-PARTISAN District Office(s) – Mobile offices in rural districts While the # of constituents that have gotten casework help is small, the # that learn of casework is much higher –Ernie’s radio/tv ads in 2002 boasted casework testimonials

14. Configuration of District Every 10 years, when the census is conducted, congressional districts are redrawn (allocation of congressional seats can also change) Redistricting is done by partisan state legislators –These legislators traditionally use this opportunity to their advantage (sometimes shifting neighborhoods, even entire towns)

15. Experience Incumbents are highly skilled politicians Pork-barrel politics –Members get on committees that will help them at home “Home Styles” – Incumbents know how to win elections in their district. They have mastered their relationship with their constituents