1. Tenure Trends in the UK Housing System: Will the private rented sector continue to grow? Ben Pattison Policy & Research Officer

2. The future of housing Consultation at Windsor Castle Where are we now? Importance of ‘housing as a system’ UK housing system is dysfunctional Where do we want to be? A housing system that will provide decent and affordable housing for everyone How can we get there? Eight key areas for attention and detailed suggestions

3. Tenure trends: background The importance of analysing housing as a system How and why is the UK housing system changing? What are the likely impacts on housing policy? This research is a starting point for exploration of these issues and includes: Tenure change and the UK housing system Future impact of recent changes in tenure mix Are recent changes in tenure mix likely to continue? What are the policy implications?

4. Tenure change and the UK housing system Important differences between the three main tenures (owner occupation, private renting and social renting) Tenure mix has changed significantly over the last one hundred years These tenure trends have been the result of: Political, economic and social drivers Acting over both the short and long term For the first time in a century: Relative decline of owner occupation Sustained increase in the private rented sector

5. Historic changes in tenure mix Tenure trend, percentage of households by tenure, England, 1918 to 2008

6. How would tenure mix change if recent trends continue? Households, by tenure, UK (actual and projected with constant trend), 1997 to 2020

7. Are recent changes in tenure mix likely to continue? Some key drivers for recent changes in tenure mix

8. Policy implications Recent changes in tenure mix may well continue, leading to a larger private rented sector What roles should each tenure play in the housing system? How can government ‘tools’ be used to ensure that the housing system delivers decent and affordable housing for everyone? Taxation, subsidy, regulation, local control Urgent attention needs paying to private renting, ensuring: It meets the needs of households who have not chosen to live in this tenure That it is not a tenure of ‘last resort’, an unsatisfactory default for those who can’t access owner occupation or social housing