1. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN LAWRENCE Inventory, Impacts, and Regulation presentation by Robert M. Lewis, AICP, Principal D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES Lawrence City Commission Study Session January 18, 2006

2. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 1 THREE PRIMARY ASSIGNMENTS  Database of the physical inventory of retailing. Contract with city  Potential impact of three proposed retail centers. Northgate Bauer Farm MercatoAdded contract with city  Development code recommendations. Subcontract with Stinson Morrison Hecker Same contract with city

3. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 2 INVENTORY: Methodology  Define retail geographic concentrations (city & DSI).  Field survey (primarily by city staff)  Compilation, verification, aggregation (DSI)  Peer city comparisons (DSI)  Summary report (DSI) Informative intent; non-judgmental

4. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 3 INVENTORY: Retail Concentrations  Focus on “typical” retail locations. Shopping Centers First Floors – Second if occupied  Record of occupancy regardless of use or zoning.  Record of occupancy if retail land use or zoning.  10 geographic areas plus miscellaneous. West 6th & Monterey Way West 6th & Wakarusa South Iowa Street West 23rd Street Downtown West 6th Street Hillcrest Shopping Center Orchard Corners Clinton Parkway East 23rd St.

5. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 4 INVENTORY: Field Survey  DSI designed a field recording form.  DSI tested the field work.  DSI trained city staff.  Staff completed field work.  Staff created database spreadsheet and sent to DSI.

6. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 5 INVENTORY: Field Survey Form

7. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 6 INVENTORY: Compilation, Verification, Aggregation  Checked against previous Lawrence database.  Checked against telephone book and Internet.  Checked against Chamber of Commerce data.  Checked against Grubb & Ellis local data.  Selected telephone calls to retailers.  Determined NAICS of each entry (retail or not).  Aggregated by geography & NAICS.

8. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 7 INVENTORY: NAICS Codes “Strictly Retail” 44xxxxRetail Trade 45xxxxRetail Trade 722xxxEating/Drinking only; lodging in “other” 811xxxRepair & Maintenance 812xxxPersonal & Laundry Services Not Strictly Retail Non-RetailOffices, hotels, mfg., warehouses, banks. VacantVacant (counted if in retail location)

9. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 8 SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by NAICS

10. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 9 SUMMARY DATA: Establishments by NAICS

11. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 10 SUMMARY DATA: Average Sq. Ft. by NAICS

12. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 11 SUMMARY DATA: Dining Establishments

13. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 12 SUMMARY DATA: Square Feet by Geography

14. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 13 SUMMARY DATA: Percent of Sq. Ft. by Geography

15. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 14 Distribution of Space: City of Lawrence

16. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 15 Distribution of Space: West 6 th & Monterey Way

17. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 16 Distribution of Space: West 6 th & Wakarusa

18. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 17 Distribution of Space: South Iowa Street

19. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 18 Distribution of Space: West 23 rd Street

20. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 19 Distribution of Space: Downtown

21. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 20 Distribution of Space: West 6 th Street

22. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 21 Distribution of Space: Hillcrest Shopping Center

23. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 22 Distribution of Space: Orchard Corners

24. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 23 Distribution of Space: Clinton Parkway

25. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 24 Distribution of Space: East 23 rd Street

26. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 25 Distribution of Space: Miscellaneous Locations

27. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 26 PEER CITIES

28. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 27 PEER CITIES: Population, 2004 CityCountyPct City Lawrence82,100103,00080% Wichita350,600468,20075% Topeka122,000170,90071% Manhattan44,70062,30072% Iowa City62,800114,90055% Ames51,30081,40063% Oklahoma City529,600681,90078% Tulsa391,100577,20068% Lincoln237,900263,60090% Bloomington70,600121,90058% Champaign-Urbana110,700184,40060% Bloomington-Normal117,200158,00074% Columbia88,500141,40063% Kirksville17,20025,00069% AVERAGE162,600225,30072%

29. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 28 PEER CITIES: Retail Sales to EBI

30. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 29 PEER CITIES: Retail Sales Pull Factors

31. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 30 POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL Project Total Square Feet "Strictly" Retail Square Feet Percent Retail Sq. Ft. Consistent with Inventory Percent of Lawrence Inventory if Constructed Northgate269,300265,950100.0%269,3004.0% Bauer Farm168,35061,35036.4%118,8001.8% Mercato717,600600,00083.6%600,0008.3% TOTAL1,155,250930,65080.6%988,10012.9%

32. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 31 POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL: Northgate: 269,300 square feet  If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 7.7%.  If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%.  Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).  To absorb 269,300 square feet requires 3,430 more residents.  Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.

33. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 32 POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL: Bauer Farm: 118,800 square feet  If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 5.6%.  If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.8%.  Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).  To absorb 118,800 square feet requires 1,515 more residents.  Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.

34. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 33 POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL: Mercato: 600,000 square feet  If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 11.9%.  If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.5%.  Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).  To absorb 600,000 square feet requires 7,650 more residents.  Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.

35. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 34 POTENIAL IMPACT OF NEW RETAIL: All Three: 988,100 square feet  If all remains vacant (or creates equal vacancies), city vacancy rate increases from 3.9% to 16.3%.  If all becomes occupied, city vacancy rate decreases from 3.9% to 3.3%.  Current square feet to population in Lawrence: 78.5 (6,479,100 s.f. ÷ 82,500 population).  To absorb 988,100 square feet requires 12,600 more residents.  Horizon 2020 population for 2010: 6,500 to 16,500 additional residents.

36. D EVELOPMENT S TRATEGIES 35 PEER CITY COMPARISONS  Selected cities similar to Lawrence. Midwest or Great Plains Cities that dominate their counties Stand alone counties (little surrounding development) Major university or similar institution  Used Survey of Buying Power for consistent measures.  Key purpose: Identify “gaps” in supply or demand.