1. WEATHER RESEARCH AFTER THORPEX Acknowledgements: USTEC Members US THORPEX Planning Workshop, Silver Spring, MD, 5-6 June 2014 1

2. THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014 Objective – Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts History – WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 Approach – Research related to end-to-end forecast process – Coordination across Components of forecast system – Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems Nations & regions Research & operational communities – Modernize / optimize forecast system Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact Adaptive & probabilistic approaches – Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures 2

3. SOME MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies – Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc Developed, tested, & operationally implemented Adaptive observations – Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program National Weather Service – Suspended Ensemble-based DA – Hybrid GSI-EnKF – NCEP, GMAO Multi-center ensemble forecasting – North American Ensemble Forecast System NCEP, Canada, Mexico + FNMOC - NUOPC 3

4. Few standing WGs focusing on basic research areas – DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds – Polar Prediction Project (PPP) - launched – Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) - launched – High Impact Weather (HIW) – final planning phase – Need for coordinated US engagement What are US needs in next 5-10 yrs? – Societal needs? – Scientific opportunities? WWRP REORGANIZATION 4

5. Three considerations: Formulate expected societal needs – Agency requirements – Agency funding opportunities Explore scientific opportunities – WWRP projects Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – Geographical focus Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – Lead-time focus High Impact Weather (HIW) – Lead-time focus Outline US research interests / talent Determine overlap between three factors Identify US weather research themes – Themes can cut across THORPEX legacy projects US WEATHER RESEARCH PLANNING - 2024 5

6. One atmosphere, all spatial/temporal scales connected Post-THORPEX projects focus on various aspects of forecasting Subjects of post-THORPEX projects overlap US research themes may address / fall under 2-3 post-THORPX projects THORPEX LEGACY PROJECTS 6

7. US THORPEX ORGANIZATION - CURRENT US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC – NASAVacant – US NavyMelinda Peng – NOAAJohn Cortinas – NSFMichael Morgan – US Representative to ICSCZoltan Toth, Chair US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC – Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair) US Program Office – Supported by NOAA & NSF 7

8. SUGGESTED US POST-THORPEX ARRANGEMENT Purpose – National coordination of US weather research activities Incl. intl. engagement w. WWRP / THORPEX legacy projects US Executive Weather Research Committee - USWRC – USTEC members (NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy) – Invite other agencies (FAA, US Geological Survey, etc) US Weather Research Science Steering Committee - USWRSSC – USTSSC members – New Chair? 8

9. WORKSHOP EXPECTATIONS Questions about THORPEX – How THORPEX influenced weather research? – What was triggered, fostered, facilitated w. THORPEX? What would have happened anyway? Major projects create opportunities – Realize and take advantage of them – Be creative, don’t be bound by what’s on ground Create / influence the future Present outcome of workshop at WWOSC in Montreal – Major US weather research themes 9

10. BACKGROUND 10