1.  Matt Gates

2.  Forecast sprawl  Guide long-range population and employment forecasts o For the region o For individual counties  Allocate growth to County subdivisions o Municipalities o Traffic Analysis Zones  Test policies o Highway vs transit investment o VMT tax o Purchase development rights

3.  General purpose land use planning, analysis, and forecasting tool  Integrates demographic, employment, land use, and transportation data within GIS  Identifies vacant land that will be developed o No infill o No redevelopment  Links to Travel Demand Model o No direct connection o No feedback loop o Single future year outcome (no interim years)

4. Highway Congestion Transit Network GIS Map of New Development Patterns MCD & TAZ Tabular Summaries

5. 1. Determine amount of population and employment growth 2. Define “Allocation Areas” 3. Remove “Development Masks” from Allocation Areas 4. Determine development “Attractors” and “Discouragements” 5. Run synthetic auction

6.  Population and Housing o Total population o Persons per household o Percent of units by household density type o Average lot size by household density type  Employees and Jobs o Employment per household o Percent of jobs in employment density type o Average Square footage by employment density type  GIS layers o Buffer (area of influence) o Weight (magnitude of influence)

7.  Existing open space o Vacant o Agricultural o Wooded  Planned Growth Areas  As of Right or Proposed Zoning

8.  Parks, Military, Protected Areas (NJ Pine Lands, Farms)  Environmental Conservation Areas  Water Bodies, Streams, and Wetlands  Existing Development

9.  Transportation Infrastructure o – Freeway Interchanges o – Other Major Roadways o – Rail Stations and Bus Lines  Similar Existing Development (Clustering)  Favorable Government Policy  Highway Congestion (Commercial Only)

10. Montgomery County, PA

11.  Preservation Areas  Flood Plains and Wetlands  Steep Slope  Unfavorable Government Policy  Highway Congestion (Residential Only)

12. Allocation Area  Wooded  Vacant  Agricultural Masks DiscouragersAttractors  Congestion  Steep Slope  Municipal Policy Coefficients  Water Features  Existing Development  Protected Lands  Similar Type Development (Clustering)  Transportation Facilities  Sewers  Municipal Policy Coefficients

13. UUPlan allocates New Footprint Development by bidding priority… oIoIndustrial – highest bidder oRoResidential high density oCoCommercial high density oRoResidential medium density oCoCommercial low density oRoResidential low density- lowest bidder oRoResidential v. low density

14.  UPlan allocation without NJ 55  UPlan allocation with NJ 55 1990-2005 land use change  Legend !. FreewayInterchange !. FreewayInterchange (Unbuilt) Freeway Major Arterial Minor Arterial 1990 Existing Development Undevelopable Land Land Use Commercial Industrial High-Density Residential Medium/Low-Density Residential Gloucester County, NJ N

15.  Magnitude of total demographic and employment growth determined by user  Existing development is fixed. User defines where redevelopment can occur  Weak transportation linkage  County-level densities can be confusing in final presentation o “Low-density" in Philadelphia > "high density" everywhere else  High degree of differentiation within each county