1. Christchurch Transportation Planning Post Feb 2011 Earthquake Oceania Cube User Conference 2011 Presented by Andrew Metherell

2. Contents  Introduction  Land Use  Available Data  Estimating Changes  Modelling  The CTM  Application and Results Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

3. Where is Christchurch? Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

4. Christchurch Statistics  Population: 415,000  Households: 150,000  Total Area: 1,425 km 2 Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

5. The Earthquakes Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

6. ~1,200 road surface defects >50,000 road surface defects Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

7. The Effects  Roads closed, CBD shut  Households, business, schools and shops re-located  Traffic increases on key routes  Increased travel time  Reduced trip reliability Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

8. The Responses  “Get Christchurch Moving” – Emergency Response  “Keep Christchurch Moving”  Review of Forward Capital Works Programme  Utilise Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM) Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

9. The Model  Land use based, various forecast years  Person-based travel  Strategic network representation  Wide geographic area  Daily travel calculations Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

10. Christchurch Transportation Model Land Use Data Zonal Trip Ends Generation Results Modal Choice Trip Distribution Route Choice (Assignment) Network Data Policy Assumptions Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

11. Modelling Plan  Immediate effects covered by emergency response  6 month post EQ (2011)  Compare pre and post EQ travel demand changes  Confirm observed change in travel patterns  5 years hence, 2016 various rates of recovery to CBD  Identify recovery travel demand changes  Test forward work programme effects  Long term, 2026 and 2041, assume full recovery (for now) Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

12. Land Use – Available Data  Post Redirections  Residential “stickers” (red/yellow/green)  Local knowledge  Transport planners  Real estate experts Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

13. Household Postal Redirections  As of 12 April 2011  64% redirects remain with City FROM TO Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

14. Net Postal Redirections  3,700 redirects from (red)  2,400 redirects to (green)  Excludes PO boxes Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

15. “Stickers”/Placards  What do the three colours mean?  RED – Do not enter a red placarded building because it is unsafe  YELLOW – Buildings suitable for restricted access until issues are resolved  GREEN – Building accessed and no structural hazards apparent Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

16. Residential “Sticker” Status  Red or yellow stickers  5,750 households “lost” Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

17. Land Use – Estimating Changes  Determine overall net loss (pop/HHs)  Determine geographic distribution  Reductions  But increases in some areas  With CBD closed, where will business (& jobs) be? Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

18. Net Loss – Population / HHs  Population loss  10,000 Christchurch  Estimate household reduction from population (2.6 ppl/hh)  3,800 less households Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

19. Geographic Distribution  Household loss areas  Residential sticker status  Postal redirection  Vacant residential land  Where will people move to?  Zoned “vacant” residential land  Some in damaged areas Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

20. CBD Job Loss  Main job loss in CBD  Unemployment likely to rise (so fewer jobs overall)  Pre-quake 55,900  Post-quake 30,900 CBD Fringe -50%* Pre=8,100 Post=4,900 CBD Outer -10% Pre=25,100 Post=24,400 Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

21. Job changes around the city Oceania Cube User Conference 2011 AIRPORT CBD PORT Existing Major Business Areas

22. Oceania Cube User Conference 2011 Roads of National Significance

23. Modelling – Scenarios Evaluated LAND USE 2011 2016 Onwards PrePostInitial RoNSFull RoNS Pre Post 2011 Post Pre 2016 Pre 2026 Pre2041 4 Stage Model Run Assignment only, fixed demands Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

24. Forecast Post-Quake Changes  2011 Daily Demand INCREASE DECREASE Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

25. Future Network Implementation – Initial RoNS  2016 Daily Demand Change with Initial Road of National Significance (CSM1 and Western Corridor) INCREASE DECREASE Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

26. Initial RoNS – Congestion Relief Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Post-Quake Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Initial RoNS Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

27. Outcomes  CTM useful in post earthquake planning  Traffic forecasts consistent with post quake counts  Able to demonstrate initial RoNs required Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

28. Acknowledgements Oceania Cube User Conference 2011

29. Questions? Oceania Cube User Conference 2011