1. Hypothesis Tests Hypothesis Tests One Sample Means

2. A government agency has received numerous complaints that a particular restaurant has been selling underweight hamburgers. The restaurant advertises that it’s patties are “a quarter pound” (4 ounces). How can I tell if they really are underweight? Take a sample & find x. expect unlikely But how do I know if this x is one that I expect to happen or is it one that is unlikely to happen? A hypothesis test will allow me to decide if the claim is true or not!

3. Steps for doing a hypothesis test 1)Assumptions 2)Write hypotheses & define parameter 3)Calculate the test statistic & p-value 4)Write a statement in the context of the problem. H 0 :  = 12 vs H a :  (, or ≠) 12 “Since the p-value ) , I reject (fail to reject) the H 0. There is (is not) sufficient evidence to suggest that H a (in context).”

4. Assumptions for t-inference Have an SRS from population (or randomly assigned treatments)  unknown Normal (or approx. normal) distribution –Given –Large sample size –Check graph of data Use only one of these methods to check normality

5. Formulas:  unknown: t = 

6. Calculating p-values For z-test statistic – –Use normalcdf(lb,rb) –[using standard normal curve] For t-test statistic – –Use tcdf(lb, rb, df)

7. Draw & shade a curve & calculate the p-value: 1) right-tail test t = 1.6; n = 20 2) two-tail testt = 2.3; n = 25 P-value =.0630 P-value = (.0152)2 =.0304

8. Example 1: Bottles of a popular cola are supposed to contain 300 mL of cola. There is some variation from bottle to bottle. An inspector, who suspects that the bottler is under-filling, measures the contents of six randomly selected bottles. Is there sufficient evidence that the bottler is under-filling the bottles? Use  =.1 299.4 297.7 298.9 300.2 297 301

9. I have an SRS of bottles Since the boxplot is approximately symmetrical with no outliers, the sampling distribution is approximately normally distributed  is unknown SRS? p-value =.0880  =.1 Normal? How do you know? H 0 :  = 300where  is the true mean amount H a :  < 300 of cola in bottles What are your hypothesis statements? Is there a key word? Plug values into formula. Do you know  ? Since p-value < , I reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the true mean cola in the bottles is less than 300 mL. Compare your p-value to  & make decision Write conclusion in context in terms of H a.

10. Example 3: The Wall Street Journal (January 27, 1994) reported that based on sales in a chain of Midwestern grocery stores, President’s Choice Chocolate Chip Cookies were selling at a mean rate of $1323 per week. Suppose a random sample of 30 weeks in 1995 in the same stores showed that the cookies were selling at the average rate of $1208 with standard deviation of $275. Does this indicate that the sales of the cookies is lower than the earlier figure?

11. Assume: Have an SRS of weeks Distribution of sales is approximately normal due to large sample size  unknown H 0 :  = 1323 where  is the true mean cookie sales H a :  < 1323 per week Since p-value <  of 0.05, I reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the sales of cookies are lower than the earlier figure. What is the potential error in context? What is a consequence of that error?

12. Example 9: President’s Choice Chocolate Chip Cookies were selling at a mean rate of $1323 per week. Suppose a random sample of 30 weeks in 1995 in the same stores showed that the cookies were selling at the average rate of $1208 with standard deviation of $275. Compute a 90% confidence interval for the mean weekly sales rate. CI = ($1122.70, $1293.30) Based on this interval, is the mean weekly sales rate statistically less than the reported $1323?

13. Matched Pairs Test A special type of t-inference

14. Matched Pairs – two forms Pair individuals by certain characteristics Randomly select treatment for individual A Individual B is assigned to other treatment Assignment of B is dependent on assignment of A Individual persons or items receive both treatments Order of treatments are randomly assigned before & after measurements are taken The two measures are dependent on the individual

15. Is this an example of matched pairs? 1)A college wants to see if there’s a difference in time it took last year’s class to find a job after graduation and the time it took the class from five years ago to find work after graduation. Researchers take a random sample from both classes and measure the number of days between graduation and first day of employment No, there is no pairing of individuals, you have two independent samples

16. Is this an example of matched pairs? 2) In a taste test, a researcher asks people in a random sample to taste a certain brand of spring water and rate it. Another random sample of people is asked to taste a different brand of water and rate it. The researcher wants to compare these samples No, there is no pairing of individuals, you have two independent samples – If you would have the same people taste both brands in random order, then it would be an example of matched pairs.

17. Is this an example of matched pairs? 3) A pharmaceutical company wants to test its new weight-loss drug. Before giving the drug to a random sample, company researchers take a weight measurement on each person. After a month of using the drug, each person’s weight is measured again. Yes, you have two measurements that are dependent on each individual.

18. Stroop Test Is there an interaction between color & word? Or in other words … is there a significant increase in time?

19. A whale-watching company noticed that many customers wanted to know whether it was better to book an excursion in the morning or the afternoon. To test this question, the company collected the following data on 15 randomly selected days over the past month. (Note: days were not consecutive.) Day123456789101112131415 Morning 897910131082577687 After- noon 810989118104789669 First, you must find the differences for each day. Since you have two values for each day, they are dependent on the day – making this data matched pairs You may subtract either way – just be careful when writing H a

20. Day 123456789101112131415 Morning 897910131082577687 After- noon 810989118104789669 Differenc es 0-21122 -202 Assumptions: Have an SRS of days for whale-watching  unknown Since the normal probability plot is approximately linear, the distribution of difference is approximately normal. I subtracted: Morning – afternoon You could subtract the other way! You need to state assumptions using the differences! Notice the granularity in this plot, it is still displays a nice linear relationship!

21. Differences 0-21122 -202 Is there sufficient evidence that more whales are sighted in the afternoon? Be careful writing your H a ! Think about how you subtracted: M-A If afternoon is more should the differences be + or -? Don’t look at numbers!!!! H 0 :  D = 0 H a :  D < 0 Where  D is the true mean difference in whale sightings from morning minus afternoon Notice we used  D for differences & it equals 0 since the null should be that there is NO difference. If you subtract afternoon – morning; then H a :  D >0

22. finishing the hypothesis test: Since p-value > , I fail to reject H 0. There is insufficient evidence to suggest that more whales are sighted in the afternoon than in the morning. Notice that if you subtracted A-M, then your test statistic t = +.945, but p- value would be the same In your calculator, perform a t-test using the differences (L3) Differences 0-21122 -202 How could I increase the power of this test?

23. Example 2: The Degree of Reading Power (DRP) is a test of the reading ability of children. Here are DRP scores for a random sample of 44 third-grade students in a suburban district: (data on note page) At the  =.1, is there sufficient evidence to suggest that this district’s third graders reading ability is different than the national mean of 34?

24. I have an SRS of third-graders Since the sample size is large, the sampling distribution is approximately normally distributed OR Since the histogram is unimodal with no outliers, the sampling distribution is approximately normally distributed  is unknown SRS? p-value = tcdf(.6467,1E99,43)=.2606(2)=.5212  =.1 Do you know  ? Normal? How do you know? Use tcdf to calculate p-value. H 0 :  = 34where  is the true mean reading H a :  ≠ 34 ability of the district’s third-graders What are your hypothesis statements? Is there a key word? Plug values into formula.

25. A type II error – We decide that the true mean reading ability is not different from the national average when it really is different. Conclusion: Since p-value > , I fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to suggest that the true mean reading ability of the district’s third-graders is different than the national mean of 34. Write conclusion in context in terms of H a. Compare your p-value to  & make decision What type of error could you potentially have made with this decision? State it in context.

26. What confidence level should you use so that the results match this hypothesis test? 90% Compute the interval. What do you notice about the hypothesized mean? (32.255, 37.927)