1. Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction Andrei Gabrielov Purdue University West Lafayette, IN, USA www.math.purdue.edu/~agabriel

2. San Francisco, April 18, 1906

3. Plate Tectonics Major tectonic plates and world seismicity

4. Plate Tectonics Plate boundaries and tectonic faults

5. North American Plate Pacific Plate

6. Elastic Rebound Theory Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).

7. Elastic Rebound Theory Discovered after the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (before plate tectonics theory).

8. Elastic Rebound Slow build-up of deformation (strain) in the rocks by plate motion. Strain (energy) is released suddenly as fault slips.

9. Earthquake Focus and Epicenter

10. Earthquakes generate elastic waves: Body waves: P (pulse), S (transverse) Surface waves: R (Rayleigh), L (Love)  P-wave First arrival S-wave Surface waves Time  Seismogram for a distant earthquake

11. A wave pulse (P-wave) Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

12. Transverse wave (S-wave) Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

13. Rayleigh wave Animation courtesy of Dr. Dan Russell, Kettering University http://www.kettering.edu/~drussell/demos.html

15. Seismic waves through the Earth’s interior that indicate structure (crust, mantle, outer core, inner core, etc.) Seismic Waves in the Earth

16. Magnitude  Measure of the ENERGY released in the earthquake, based on vibration caused by seismic waves  Logarithmic scale ― M = 6 is ten times greater vibration, and a hundred times more energy, than M = 5 (at the same distance)  Should not be mistaken for INTENSITY ― the measure of the damage caused by the earthquake

17. Moment = M 0 = µ A D (dyne-cm) (dyne is a unit of force) µ = shear modulus ~ 32 GPa in crust (~3.2 x 10 11 dynes/cm 2 ), ~75 GPa in mantle (a measure of strength of rocks) A = LW = area (cm 2 ), D = average displacement (cm) M w = 2/3 log10(M 0 ) - 10.7 Moment Magnitude M w Epicenter (location on Earth’s surface above the hypocenter) Focus or hypocenter (point of initiation of the rupture) * Depth

18. Gutenberg-Richter Law

19. DescriptorMagnitudeAverage Annually Great8 and higher1 ¹ Major7 - 7.917 ² Strong6 - 6.9134 ² Moderate5 - 5.91319 ² Light4 - 4.913,000 (est.) Minor3 - 3.9130,000 (est.) Very Minor2 - 2.91,300,000 (est.) ¹ Based on observations since 1900. ² Based on observations since 1990. Worldwide earthquakes per year (from USGS):

20. Aftershocks Earthquakes that happen following a mainshock, in the same region but of smaller magnitude Aftershock frequency distribution in time t after the mainshock satisfies Omori Law: Bath’s Law: Aftershock’s magintude is approximately 1.2 less than mainshock’s Aftershocks frequency-magnitude distribution satisfies Gutenberg-Richter law

21. World’s largest earthquakes since 1900

22. LocationDate UTCMag.Lat.Long. 1Chile1960 05 229.5-38.29-73.05 2 Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964 03 289.261.02-147.65 3 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2004 12 269.13.3095.78 4Honshu, Japan2011 03 119.038.32142.37 5Kamchatka1952 11 049.052.76160.06 6Maule, Chile2010 02 278.8-35.85-72.72 7Off the Coast of Ecuador1906 01 318.81.0-81.5 8Rat Islands, Alaska1965 02 048.751.21178.50 9 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2005 03 288.62.0897.01 10Assam - Tibet1950 08 158.628.596.5 11 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 2012 04 118.62.3193.06 12Andreanof Islands, Alaska1957 03 098.651.56-175.39 13 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia 2007 09 128.5-4.44101.37 14Banda Sea, Indonesia1938 02 018.5-5.05131.62 15Kamchatka1923 02 038.554.0161.0 16Chile-Argentina Border1922 11 118.5-28.55-70.50 17Kuril Islands1963 10 138.544.9149.6

23. Continental USA largest earthquakes

24. Largest Earthquakes in the Continental USA LocationDateMagnitude 1.Cascadia subduction zone1700 01 26˜9 2.Fort Tejon, California1857 01 097.9 3.San Francisco, California1906 04 187.8 4.Imperial Valley, California1892 02 247.8 5.New Madrid, Missouri1811 12 167.7 6.New Madrid, Missouri1812 02 077.7 7.New Madrid, Missouri1812 01 237.5 8.Owens Valley, California1872 03 267.4 9.Landers, California1992 06 287.3 10.Hebgen Lake, Montana1959 08 187.3 11.Kern County, California1952 07 217.3 12.West of Eureka, California1922 01 317.3 13.Charleston, South Carolina1886 09 017.3 14.California - Oregon Coast1873 11 237.3 15.N Cascades, Washington1872 12 157.3

26. Strong Earthquakes Nucleate in Some “ Dangerous” Structures (D-nodes) Gelfand, et al., 1976. Qualitatively, D-nodes are recognized –by local depression on the background of NG ‑ Q depression (“local tension on the background of general compression”) –by proximity of hydrothermal reservoirs

27. Earthquake prediction A strong earthquake is preceded by the following changes in seismicity:

28. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF PREDICTION

29. Intermediate-term (5 yrs) Prediction Algorithm M8-MSc, Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov

30. Predicting the 3/11/2011 M9 earthquake in Japan

31. Predicting the 4/11/2012 M8.6 and M8.2 Earthquakes off the Western coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

32. FRONTIERS OF SIMILARITY Precursors have been defined for earthquakes. Only the final scale was adjusted for starquakes.

33. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS

34. Prediction of US Recessions

35. US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (Keilis-Borok and Lichtman) Prediction is based on thirteen socio-economic and political factors. Victory of challenging party is predicted when 6 or more factors are in its favor. Otherwise victory of incumbent party is predicted. Retrospective Analysis: 1860 - 1980 * years when popular vote was reversed by electoral vote. Red - incumbent won, blue – challenger won. Predictions published months in advance: all 8 - correct

36. Key 1:(Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Key 2:(Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. Key 3:(Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. Key 4:(Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. Key 5:(Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Key 6:(Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Key 7:(Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Key 8:(Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Key 9:(Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Key 10: (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Key 11: (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Key 12: (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Key 13: (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 13 Keys to Presidency (Keilis-Borok and Lichtman) Answer YES favors re-election of the incumbent party

37. KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE) KEY 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE) KEY 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE) KEY 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE) KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE) KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE) KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE) KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE) KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE) KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE) KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE) KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE) KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE) Answers for the 2012 presidential election (published 28 months before the election)