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TEAM MEMBERS SHAO-LUN LU PURVI MITTAL HAROUT SAHAKIAN RAKESH VENKATAYOGI Presented March 18, 2014 HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS (HA)
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Business Overview Macro-Economic & Industry Overview Technical Analysis Financial Ratios Valuation Recommendation AGENDA
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Incorporated in January 1929 5249 employees Market Cap : 712.95 M 208 operating flights as of December 31,2013 Business : Engaged in the scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo Operating geographic locations - a) Neighbor Island : amongst the Hawaiian Islands b) North America : between the Hawaiian Islands and certain cities in the United States c) International : between the Hawaiian Islands and the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand and Asia Current Fleet: 18 Boeing 717-200 aircraft 12 Boeing 767-300 aircraft 14 Airbus A330-200 aircraft COMPANY BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: HA 10-K Report
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HA ROUTES & BUSINESS PARTNERS Source: Hawaiianairlines.com
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Added planes: Added five new A330-200 Added one ATR 42 Retired four Boeing 767-300 Added routes: Honolulu to Auckland, New Zealand in March 2013 Honolulu to Sendai, Japan launched in June 2103 RECENT FACTS OF 2013 Source: HA 10-K Report
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Maui Los Angeles in July 2014 Los Angeles Kona Summer of 2014 Los Angeles Lihu'e Summer of 2014 Oakland Kona Summer of 2014 Oakland Lihu'e Summer of 2014 Honolulu -> Beijing, China in April 2014 ROUTE EXPANSION IN 2014 Delivery YearA330-200A321neo A350XWB- 800Total 2014 5 5 2015 3 3 2016 2017 325 2018 628 2019 617 2020 112 816630 NEW PLANES DELIVERY FORWARD OUTLOOK IN 2014 Source: Company Website HAL Reports 2013 Fourth Quarter and Full year Financial Results
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MACRO-ECONOMIC & INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
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EXTERNAL FACTORS Per Capita Spending: Greater number of people returning to work and improved housing will mean consumers are willing to spend on purchases delayed due to recession Forecast Value for 2018: $37,249 2013-2018 Compound Growth: 2.5% World Price of Oil: Price of oil is forecast to continue to decline in 2014 due to stagnant global demand ; also difference in oil prices around $2. Forecasted Value for 2018: $114.92 per barrel 2013-2018 Compound Growth: 2.2% Consumer Spending: With job growth expected to improve steadily over the five years to 2019, coupled with normalizing credit conditions, long term historical growth rate will reassert itself Forecasted Value for 2019: $12.64 trillion 2014-2019 Compound Growth: 2.79% Source: IBIS World Airlines Industry Report
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INDUSTRY FORECAST US personal consumption expenditures for US airlines are forecasted to grow at annual compound rate of 4% between 2014 to 2018. Source: Mergent Insight research
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INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES Emerging Market Growth Emerging markets experiencing higher growth than established economies Ancillary Fees $40 billion annually from baggage fees, seat assignments, travel services Fuel-Efficient Aircraft New upcoming Boeings are 13% more efficient Internet Ticket Sales Major revenues from online sales which is easier and comparable Frequent Flier sales to businesses Partnering with credit card companies and hotels expands their business horizons Efficiencies with electronic documents Paperless ticketing and bar coding substantially reduces costs Source: Mergent Insight Research report on Airlines
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HAWAII 2014 ARRIVALS AT A GLANCE Visitors arrivals forecast to Hawaii by air 201420152016 Annual growth US West1.4%1.3%1.4% US East1.0%1.3%1.2% Japan2.4%1.8% Canada1.5%1.4%1.3% Europe2.0% Ocenia3.9%1.5%1.3% China20.9%20.0%15.0% Korea8.9%10.0%7.0% Others0.0%1.0% Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority 2014 forecast outlook
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PORTER’S FIVE FORCES FOR HA Rivalry Competition HIGH Competitive factors: price, frequency, on-time reliability, market affiliations Honolulu is not the origin but a destination of passenger traffic Supplier’s bargaining power MED-HIGH Too much dependency on third party contractors for facilities, code sharing, reservations, ground facilities Deal for frequent flyer program with Barclays Bank Buyer’s bargaining power MEDIUM Large market players entering market providing competitive prices from various other locations Cheaper inter-island getaways lead to medium risk for HA Substitutes MED-LOW Aquatic travel between islands becoming more apparent Government looking to provide and cater to the peoples demand for cheaper getaways Threat of new entrants LOW Deterrents: Decrease in inter-island demand, capital intensive nature; limit to airports Very difficult to obtain new slots by new company; tough competition amongst existing airlines
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STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIESTHREATS SWOT Analysis Largest airline based in state of Hawaii Provides services to 20 destinations in the Pacific and US west coast. Consistently ranked “on-time” carrier Unbroken decades of records of safety Hawaii too south a point for connection between Asia and US from west Relationships with third-party contractors Ordering of new fleets and already expanded use of leverage around the same time Expansion into the Japanese and South Asian markets Only provider of Non-stop services between Seoul, South Korea Efficiency Opportunities: Closing of Taipei route Volatility of crude oil prices Increasing expansion of other carriers giving customers options Increase in operating expenses and decrease in net income
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FINANCIALS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Source: finance.yahoo.com
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ROE – DUPONT METHOD FY 2013FY 2012FY 2011FY 2010FY 2009 Tax Burden 60.00%62.05%244.82%134.47%120.08% Interest Burden 64.60%66.29%-1.19%89.82%90.42% Profit Margin 6.20%6.59%5.47%6.97%9.08% Asset Turnover 1.071.171.261.221.21 Leverage 6.056.825.204.728.53 ROE 15.56%21.63%-1.05%48.48%101.75% Source: Bloomberg
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INDUSTRY COMPARABLES Operating Profit per ASM Ex-fuel* Revenue per ASM* Cost per ASM*Debt/Assets Regional Hawaiian Airlines (HA) 3.6111.4712.0837.26% Allegiant Travel (ALGT) 6.6212.3010.3125.18% Southwest Airlines (LUV) 4.5412.6912.7114.57% JetBlue Airlines (JBLU) 4.2211.4611.7035.21% Alaska Airlines (ALK) 4.1912.6511.8315.21% Major Airlines Delta (DAL) 3.3414.0414.1122.98% United (UAL) 3.2713.3814.4833.71% Source: *Bloomberg - Industry Analysis (average of Q32012 – Q32013), Capital IQ
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COMPARABLE COMPANIES Southwest Airlines = 15% Allegiant Travel = 15% JetBlue Airlines = 15% Alaska Airlines = 15% Delta = 10% United = 10% American Airlines = 10% Other: Air China, Japan Air, QANTAS, Korean Air = 10%
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COMPARABLE VALUATION P/E – 15% Forward P/E – 20% EV/Revenue – 15% EV/EBITDA – 15% Forward EV/EBITDA – 20% P/B – 15% $25.30 Estimated Share Price
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FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Source: HA 10K 2013 2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E Revenues ($mm) 2,1562,5422,8013,0393,3363,787 % of growth 10%18%10%9%10%14% Available Seat Miles (ASM) (millions)16,76219,08021,23223,15525,24428,740 Number of aircrafts in operation475052535458 Available Seat Miles / Number of aircrafts 357382408437467496 % of growth 9%7% 6% Revenue/ASM ($)0.13
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COST TO CAPITAL Share Price (as of 3/15/14)$13.60 Shares outstanding (millions) 52 Market Capitalization713 Market value of debt 806 Weight of Equity47% Weight of Debt53% Risk Free Rate3% Market Risk Premium5% Beta1.12 Return on Equity (90%)8.58% Realized return (10%)32.19% Weighted Cost of Equity10.94% Cost of Debt2.90% Effective tax rate35.0% WACC6.13% Other Business risk premium2% Adjusted WACC8.13% Source: Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg
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RESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION As on December 31, 2013 ($mm, unless noted)2013A2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E Net Income 526387114143162 Book Value of Common Equity 396465590678746872 Beginning BV of Common Equity 396465590678746 (Beginning BV of Equity) X (Cost of Equity) 4351657482 Residual Income 1936506981 Present Value of Residual Income 1730374548 Equity Charge
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RESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION Cost of Equity11% Terminal Growth Rate3% Present Value of Equity Calculations Current Value of Common Equity ($mm)396 Sum of PV of Residual Income ($mm)177 1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5% 9.4% 23.5324.5125.6326.9228.4330.2232.37 9.9% 21.9122.7223.6424.6925.9127.3329.01 10.4% 20.4921.1721.9322.8023.7924.9326.27 10.9% 19.2619.8320.47 21.18 21.9922.9224.00 11.4% 18.1818.6619.1919.7920.4621.2222.09 11.9% 17.2317.6318.0818.5819.1419.7620.47 12.4% 16.3816.7317.1117.5217.9918.5119.09 Terminal Growth Rate Cost of Equity Residual Income Terminal Value ($mm)902 PV of Res. Inc. Terminal Value ($mm)537 Present Value of Equity ($mm)1,110 Shares Outstanding (millions)52 Implied Share Price ($)21.18
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IMPLIED SHARE PRICE AND DRIVERS Weights Implied Share Price Comps Valuation 50%25.30 Residual Income Valuation 50%21.18 Implied Share Price 23.24 Unique Business Model Operates in a market with good growth potential Tourism to Hawaii is expected to increase Capable Management Regular monitoring of the unprofitable routes Borrowing debt at low interest rates Key Drivers
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RECOMMENDATION: BUY 100 SHARES AT THE MARKET
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